Can Psychosocial Intervention Improve Peer and Sibling Relations Among War‐affected Children? Impact and Mediating Analyses in a Randomized Controlled Trial

Social resources are considered important protectors in traumatic conditions, but few studies have analyzed their role in psychosocial interventions among war‐affected children. We examined (1) whether a psychosocial intervention (teaching recovery techniques, TRT) is effective in improving peer and sibling relations, and (2) whether these potentially improved relations mediate the intervention's impacts on children's mental health. Participants were 428 Palestinian children [10–13 (mean = 11.29, standard deviation SD = .68)‐year‐old girls (49.4 percent) and boys (50.6 percent)], who were cluster‐randomized into the TRT and wait‐list control groups. They reported the quality of peer (friendship and loneliness) and sibling (intimacy, warmth, conflict, and rivalry) relations, and posttraumatic stress, depressive and psychological distress symptoms, as well as psychosocial well‐being at baseline (T1), postintervention (T2), and six month follow‐up (T3). Results showed gender‐specific TRT intervention effects: Loneliness in peer relations reduced among boys and sibling rivalry reduced among girls. The TRT prevented the increase in sibling conflict that happened in the control group. The mediating hypothesis was partially substantiated for improved peer relations, and beneficial changes in sibling relations were generally associated with improved mental health.     

Gender‐Specific Migration from Eastern to Western Germany: Where Have All the Young Women Gone?

With the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, open migration from East to West Germany became possible. Between 1989 and 2007, roughly 10 per cent of the East’s population at the time of reunification migrated from east to west. The emigrants were predominantly young and female. This selective migration pattern led to a tremendous deficit of females in the 18–29 year old age group in eastern Germany. Overall, the sex ratio in that age group is as low as 89 females per 100 males in the east. In some rural counties, the sex ratio is 80 females per 100 males. We find that excess female emigration at the county level is associated with gender disparities in educational attainment that favour women, a labour market structure that favours men and the lower availability of potential partners with similar levels of education in eastern Germany.     

Introduction to the Special Section Value Development from Middle Childhood to Early Adulthood—New Insights from Longitudinal and Genetically Informed Research

Research into values at an early age has only started recently, although it has expanded quickly and dynamically in the past years. The purpose of this article is twofold: First, it provides an introduction to a special section that aims to help fill the gap in value development research. The special section brings together four new longitudinal and genetically informed studies of value development from the beginning of middle childhood through early adulthood. Second, this article reviews recent research from this special section and beyond, aiming to provide new directions to the field. With new methods for assessing children's values and an increased awareness of the role of values in children's and adolescents' development, the field now seems ripe for an in‐depth investigation. Our review of empirical evidence shows that, as is the case with adults, children's values are organized based on compatibilities and conflicts in their underlying motivations. Values show some consistency across situations, as well as stability across time. This longitudinal stability tends to increase with age, although mean changes are also observed. These patterns of change seem to be compatible with Schwartz's (1992) theory of values (e.g., if the importance of openness to change values increases, the importance of conservation values decreases). The contributions of culture, family, peers, significant life events, and individual characteristics to values are discussed, as well as the development of values as guides for behavior.     

Exit or Voice? The Recent Drivers of Kosovar Out‐migration

A remarkable out‐migration from Kosovo occurred after the winter 2014/15, raising urgent questions about its underlying drivers and implications for both Kosovo and the destination countries. This article aims at providing a better understanding of key migration triggers and some particularities of the phenomenon. We link our empirically found migration drivers to Hirschman's ( 1970 ) famous exit, voice or loyalty scheme by asking in how far the exit must be understood as the explicit alternative to voicing dissatisfaction with the current situation in the country. According to our results, the recent Kosovar out‐migration is a clear response to weak governance and thus goes beyond the widespread ‘migration‐cum‐remittances’ livelihood practice. In this sense it could be interpreted as a revolt against the political system. With view to policy implications for destination countries, we point at legal travel and migration opportunities as the better solution to channel both voice and exit.     

Modeling probability density through ultraspherical polynomial transformations

We present a method for fitting parametric probability density models using an integrated square error criterion on a continuum of weighted Lebesgue spaces formed by ultraspherical polynomials. This approach is inherently suitable for creating mixture model representations of complex distributions and allows fully autonomous cluster analysis of high-dimensional datasets. The method is also suitable for extremely large sets, allowing post facto model selection and analysis even in the absence of the original data. Furthermore, the fitting procedure only requires the parametric model to be pointwise evaluable, making it trivial to fit user-defined models through a generic algorithm.     

Impact of physical activity and sedentary behaviour on fall risks in older people: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

The objective of this work was to summarise and evaluate the evidence showing that physical activity is a protector factor as regards falls in older people. Relevant studies were identified through a systematic search in the MEDLINE and Cochrane Library, under the keywords of accidental fall/numerical data and risk factors, and with the bibliographies of retrieved papers. The combined odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval] for physical activity was 0.75 [0.64, 0.88] with moderate heterogeneity (I ²?=?33%). For fall injury, it was 0.59 [0.47, 0.74] and, for falls in general, it rose to 0.94 [0.76, 1.17] with nil heterogeneity. The combined OR for sedentary factors was 1.14 [1.10, 1.82] with moderate heterogeneity (I ²?=?36%). Regular physical activity in daily life yields significant reduction in falls in older people, especially falls with injuries.     

Conditional covariance penalties for mixed models

The prediction error for mixed models can have a conditional or a marginal perspective depending on the research focus. We introduce a novel conditional version of the optimism theorem for mixed models linking the conditional prediction error to covariance penalties for mixed models. Different possibilities for estimating these conditional covariance penalties are introduced. These are bootstrap methods, cross-validation, and a direct approach called Steinian. The behavior of the different estimation techniques is assessed in a simulation study for the binomial-, the t-, and the gamma distribution and for different kinds of prediction error. Furthermore, the impact of the estimation techniques on the prediction error is discussed based on an application to undernutrition in Zambia.