SYSTEMIC AND IDIOSYNCRATIC SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISES

The theoretical literature on sovereign defaults has focused on adverse shocks to debtors' economies, suggesting that defaults are of an idiosyncratic nature. Still, sovereign debt crises are also of a systemic nature, clustered around panics in the financial center, such as the European Sovereign Debt Crisis in the aftermath of the US Subprime Crisis in 2008. Crises in the financial centers are rare disasters and, thus, their effects on the periphery can only be captured by examining long episodes. In this paper, we examine sovereign defaults from 1820 to the Great Depression, with a focus on Latin America. We find that 63% of the crises are of a systemic nature. These crises are different. Both the international collapse of liquidity and the growth slowdown in the financial centers are at their core. These global shocks trigger longer default spells and larger losses for investors.     

Using Virtual Simulations to Assess Situational Awareness and Communication in Medical and Nursing Education: A Technical Feasibility Study

ABSTRACT

Communication and situational awareness, among other “human factors,” are critical skills needed within high-reliability organizations (HROs). HROs are challenged to develop an effective methodology for the systematic assessment of these skills. Virtual reality (VR) simulation technology offers a promising approach to meet this challenge. By utilizing a verbal coding procedure in tandem with eye-tracking metrics, we conducted a technical feasibility study to assess the impact of an interprofessional training (TeamSTEPPS®) on communication accuracy and observing responses among medical and nursing students in a virtual simulation. The results suggest that communication accuracy significantly improved as a result of TeamSTEPPS® training. These findings and changes in situational awareness among individuals are discussed.     

Adversarial Risk Analysis with Incomplete Information: A Level‐k Approach

This article proposes, develops, and illustrates the application of level‐k game theory to adversarial risk analysis. Level‐k reasoning, which assumes that players play strategically but have bounded rationality, is useful for operationalizing a Bayesian approach to adversarial risk analysis. It can be applied in a broad class of settings, including settings with asynchronous play and partial but incomplete revelation of early moves. Its computational and elicitation requirements are modest. We illustrate the approach with an application to a simple defend‐attack model in which the defender's countermeasures are revealed with a probability less than one to the attacker before he decides on how or whether to attack.     

A case study on a generalist service delivery model for street children in Durban,South Africa: Insights from the capability approach

This paper adopts a qualitative case study on the generalist service delivery model of I‐Care, a Durban‐based non‐governmental organization that works with male street children. Fifteen face‐to‐face interviews were conducted with 10 I‐Care employees and 5 former street children. A focus group was set up with I‐Care employees. Although existing literature is forthright about a generalist approach for children at risk, it remains unclear how to implement this approach in practice. This paper reviews a continuity of 5 fundamental social work practices for working with street children: (a) outreach work, (b) child–family and child–community mediation, (c) transitory care centres and programmes, (d) brokerage, and (e) mentorship and follow‐ups. The study analyses how these practices contribute to the capability and agency expansion of the street children and outlines challenges that service providers and former street children experience. The main challenges acknowledged are balancing between the agency and protection of street children and the adaptation of children to street life. The study proposes intervention strategies to overcome these challenges.     

Older siblings and adolescent risky behavior: does parenting play a role?

Children with older siblings are more likely to engage in risky behavior than their firstborn counterparts. Although the relationship between birth order and risky behavior may reflect the influence of older siblings, it is also possible that parents supervise later-born children less than firstborns. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we examine whether the association between birth order and risky adolescent behavior is driven by differences in the level of parental supervision. Firstborns are supervised more than their later-born siblings, but this difference does not explain the relationship between having an older sibling and risky behavior.     

Indigenous family life in Australia: A history of difference and deficit

Indigenous family life has been a key target of family and child policies in Australia since colonisation. In this paper, we identify four main policy eras that have shaped the national and state policy frameworks that have impacted Indigenous families: the protectionism, assimilation, self-determination and neoliberalism eras. Our analysis of these national and state policy frameworks reveals an enduring and negative conceptualisation of Indigenous family life. This conceptualisation continues to position Indigenous families as deficient and dysfunctional compared with a white, Anglo-Australian family ideal. This contributes to the reproduction of paternalistic policy settings and the racialised hierarchies within them that entrench Indigenous disempowerment and reproduce Indigenous disadvantage. Further, it maintains a deficit paradigm that continues to obfuscate the positive aspects of Indigenous family life that are protective of Indigenous well-being.     

Career Adaptability,Resilience, and Life Satisfaction Among Italian and Belgian Middle School Students

Youth need help with planning their future, developing positive life trajectories, and coping with socioeconomic conditions. Using a life design approach, we analyzed the relationship between career adaptability, resilience, and life satisfaction among Belgian (N = 158) and Italian (N = 158) middle school students. We hypothesized that career adaptability, directly and indirectly via resilience, would predict life satisfaction. Furthermore, we predicted that the conceptual model would be comparable between countries. Each participant completed self-report measures to assess career adaptability, resilience, and life satisfaction. The results obtained using a two-step approach to structural equation modeling suggest that career adaptability is directly and indirectly, through resilience, related to students' life satisfaction in both Italian and Belgian students. These results have important implications for supporting middle school students in their life design process.     

Adolescents’ Evaluations of Political Leaders: The Case of President Donald Trump

The current study explored youths’ views of President Donald Trump using quantitative ratings and open‐ended responses from a diverse sample of 1,432 U.S. adolescents from three geographic regions. Adolescent demographic characteristics (i.e., gender, race, geographic location) were systematically associated with their views about Trump. Open‐ended responses demonstrated substantial variability in youths’ rationales for approving or disapproving of the president. Adolescents' attitudes were informed by knowledge of the president’s leadership attributes, political views and policies, and their own experiences. Findings indicate that adolescents draw upon and synthesize a broad range of information when formulating their political views and coordinate this knowledge with their own opinions and experiences when evaluating political figures.     

Sexual Orientation–Based Depression and Suicidality Health Disparities: The Protective Role of School‐Based Health Centers

This study's purpose was to examine whether school‐based health centers (SBHCs) support mental health indicators among sexual minority youth (SMY). Data came from the 2015 Oregon Healthy Teens Survey with 13,608 11th graders in 137 public high schools in Oregon. Regression results revealed significant SBHC by SMY status interactions indicating relative reductions in likelihood of depressive episodes (30%), suicidal ideation (34%), and suicide attempts (43%) among SMY in schools with SBHCs. SMY students in SBHC schools reported lower likelihood of a past‐year depressive episode, suicidal ideation, and suicide attempt versus those attending non‐SBHC schools. Conversely, no differences in these outcomes were observed for non‐SMY by SBHC status. SBHCs may help reduce mental health disparities among SMY, a marginalized, underserved population.     

Infants’ response to a mobile phone modified still‐face paradigm: Links to maternal behaviors and beliefs regarding technoference

Interruptions to parent–child interactions due to technology, or “technoference,” have been correlated with a host of negative child developmental outcomes. Yet, the influence of technoference on parent–infant interactions and infant behaviors has received less attention and more experimental work is warranted. For this study, parent–infant dyads (n = 227) completed a modified still‐face paradigm (SFP) using a mobile phone during the still‐face phase. Infant responses were coded for positive and negative affect, object and parent orientation, self‐comforting, and escape behaviors during the task. Results showed a robust still‐face effect, with infants displaying increased negative affect, decreased positive affect, increased self‐comforting, object orientation, and escape behaviors during the “still‐face” or phone distracted phase of the paradigm and frequently failing to return to baseline during the reunion phase. Older infants (older than 9 months) likewise demonstrated higher levels of negative affect across all three phases of the paradigm relative to younger infants (less than 9 months). Parent reports of technoference behavior were related to increased object orientation for younger infants. Parental technoference behaviors were also linked to more escape behaviors for younger infants and decreased object orientation in older infants during the still‐face portion of the SFP. Higher levels of technoference also appear to attenuate the negative emotional response of infants during still face. Results are discussed in relation to infants’ increasing exposure to digital technology in the context of early relationships.