Organizing for Public Policy Effect: Aggregate Affiliated Interests in the American States*

Recent advances in the study of organizations suggest that various environmental characteristics should affect the structural characteristics of interest groups. We explore this thesis using a data set of lobbying in the American states. We use OLS regression to determine the effect of variables to measure the concepts of societal system, political culture, lobbyist registration, and state expenditures. We find that the most important variable is the total number of state lobbying efforts. In addition, as the number of lobbying increases among the states we found that a larger proportion of lobbying has been conducted by interest groups acting on their own, instead of creating affiliated aggregates. In addition, adding more variables does not increase the explanative value of the model.     

Adolescent and adult alcohol attitudes in a high alcohol consumption community

The study examines alcohol-related attitudes among adolescents and adults in a high consumption community, exploring whether adolescents and adults hold similar or different views regarding adolescent drinking. Data were gathered from adults in a Midwestern city via random telephone survey of 487 adults (30% with children under the age of 21). Students in grades 6-12 (n = 558) also completed a youth version of the survey in classrooms. Results indicated that becoming a parent was associated with more restrictive attitudes about adolescent alcohol use, regardless of the age of their children. Adolescents aged 14 to 17 had the least restrictive attitudes. Adults aged 18 to 24 (who were not parents) reported values similar to older adolescents. Younger adolescents, while similar to older adolescents in perception of community alcohol problems, were more like parents and older adults in attitudes about adolescent drinking. Both adolescents and adults greatly overestimated actual amounts of community adolescent binge drinking.     

Higher-order approximations for pitman estimators and for optimal compromise estimators

Laplace approximations for the Pitman estimators of location or scale parameters, including terms O(n^?1), are obtained. The resulting expressions involve the maximum-likelihood estimate and the derivatives of the log-likelihood function up to order 3. The results can be used to refine the approximations for the optimal compromise estimators for location parameters considered by Easton (1991). Some applications and Monte Carlo simulations are discussed.     

The futility of forecasting

Long-range forecasting is an integral part of planning, but relying on its accuracy may be a mistake. The landscape is strewn with often wildly inaccurate forecasts. This article studies performances of some forecasts, analyses factors contributing to forecast error, and suggests ways in which management may deal with the uncertainty resulting from faulty forecasting performances.     

Practical guide to sample size calculations: non‐inferiority and equivalence trials

A sample size justification is a vital part of any trial design. However, estimating the number of participants required to give a meaningful result is not always straightforward. A number of components are required to facilitate a suitable sample size calculation. In this paper, the steps for conducting sample size calculations for non‐inferiority and equivalence trials are summarised. Practical advice and examples are provided that illustrate how to carry out the calculations by hand and using the app SampSize. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Practical guide to sample size calculations: superiority trials

A sample size justification is a vital part of any investigation. However, estimating the number of participants required to give meaningful results is not always straightforward. A number of components are required to facilitate a suitable sample size calculation. In this paper, the steps for conducting sample size calculations for superiority trials are summarised. Practical advice and examples are provided illustrating how to carry out the calculations by hand and using the app SampSize. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Practical guide to sample size calculations: an introduction

A sample size justification is a vital step when designing any trial. However, estimating the number of participants required to give a meaningful result is not always straightforward. A number of components are required to facilitate a suitable sample size calculation. In this paper, the general steps are summarised for conducting sample size calculations with practical advice and guidance on how to utilise the app SampSize. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Minimum Scoring Rule Inference

Proper scoring rules are devices for encouraging honest assessment of probability distributions. Just like log‐likelihood, which is a special case, a proper scoring rule can be applied to supply an unbiased estimating equation for any statistical model, and the theory of such equations can be applied to understand the properties of the associated estimator. In this paper, we discuss some novel applications of scoring rules to parametric inference. In particular, we focus on scoring rule test statistics, and we propose suitable adjustments to allow reference to the usual asymptotic chi‐squared distribution. We further explore robustness and interval estimation properties, by both theory and simulations.     

A case study on a generalist service delivery model for street children in Durban,South Africa: Insights from the capability approach

This paper adopts a qualitative case study on the generalist service delivery model of I‐Care, a Durban‐based non‐governmental organization that works with male street children. Fifteen face‐to‐face interviews were conducted with 10 I‐Care employees and 5 former street children. A focus group was set up with I‐Care employees. Although existing literature is forthright about a generalist approach for children at risk, it remains unclear how to implement this approach in practice. This paper reviews a continuity of 5 fundamental social work practices for working with street children: (a) outreach work, (b) child–family and child–community mediation, (c) transitory care centres and programmes, (d) brokerage, and (e) mentorship and follow‐ups. The study analyses how these practices contribute to the capability and agency expansion of the street children and outlines challenges that service providers and former street children experience. The main challenges acknowledged are balancing between the agency and protection of street children and the adaptation of children to street life. The study proposes intervention strategies to overcome these challenges.