Complex Thinking and Computing Organization Facing Contingent Problems

Public Organization Review - Facing the reflexive modernity, social wealth production is systematically correlated with the production of social and technical problems. Due to the complexity...     

Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve

In this article, we extract common factors from a cross-section of U.S. macro-variables and Treasury zero-coupon yields. We find that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for government bond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of yields and are well proxied by economic growth and real interest rates.     

Approximate Bayesian computation with composite score functions

Both approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and composite likelihood methods are useful for Bayesian and frequentist inference, respectively, when the likelihood function is intractable. We propose to use composite likelihood score functions as summary statistics in ABC in order to obtain accurate approximations to the posterior distribution. This is motivated by the use of the score function of the full likelihood, and extended to general unbiased estimating functions in complex models. Moreover, we show that if the composite score is suitably standardised, the resulting ABC procedure is invariant to reparameterisations and automatically adjusts the curvature of the composite likelihood, and of the corresponding posterior distribution. The method is illustrated through examples with simulated data, and an application to modelling of spatial extreme rainfall data is discussed.     

Association of sexual abstinence in adolescence with mental health in adulthood

We examined whether adolescent sexual abstinence predicts better adult mental health. 1,917 adolescents, recruited from middle schools at age 13, were surveyed at ages 13, 18, 23, and 29. In bivariate analyses, adolescent sexual abstinence was associated with better mental health at age 29 for females, but not males; three adolescent factors, educational prospects, family bonding, and unconventionality were investigated as explanatory variables of this relationship. The abstinence-mental health relationship was nonsignificant when educational prospects was included in multivariate models, and marginally significant when family bonding and unconventionality were included; all three explanatory factors accounted for significant proportions of the variance in adult mental health. Girls who are uninvolved in school, have weak family backgrounds, and exhibit unconventionality may have poor adult mental health, whether or not they abstain from sex in adolescence. Interventions that strengthen adolescents' connections to families and schools may reduce risk for long-term mental health problems.     

Does the Theory of Voluntary Sector Failure Provide Insight into Food Pantries? A Case Study of a Network of Food Pantries in San Diego,CA

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - Individuals seek food assistance from both government and nongovernmental services. The theory of voluntary sector failure...     

Growing up on the sidelines: identity negotiations of Palestinian youth from ‘collaborating’ families relocated to Israel

By examining the experiences of the children of Palestinian collaborators whose families have relocated to Israel, this study explores how youth negotiate self within the context of marginalisation and cultural dislocation. Due to the actions of their parents, the research participants have become outsiders and outcasts in their Palestinian communities of origin, outsiders in Israel, and outsiders among Israeli-Arabs. Based on qualitative, in-depth interviews with 11 Palestinian male youths, we describe and analyse the experience of identity negotiation in the context of fear and their families’ past deceit. Our findings highlight that the youths’ identities are negotiated by engaging in a dialogue of self on belonging and not belonging that is based on visions of their past, present and future selves. This is accompanied by a forced dialogue with others, explaining who they are in order to fit in with the ‘audience’, a presentation that is then acted out.     

Using Qualitative Methods with Poor Children in Urban Ethiopia: Opportunities &; Challenges

This paper discusses the advantages and challenges of using qualitative methods to elicit poor children’s perspectives about threats and positive influences on their wellbeing. It draws on research carried out by the author on the subjective experiences of poor children in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia in terms of their understandings of wellbeing, threats to their wellbeing, coping strategies, and positive or resilient outcomes. After a brief introduction reviewing previous approaches to child poverty in general and research on Ethiopian children in particular, the second section describes the research setting and the ethical approach to the study, which influenced how consent was obtained and the data analysed. The paper then describes the use of qualitative methods such as semi-structured interviews, draw-and-tell, and diaries, the kinds of data they produced and the methodological and ethical dilemmas and tensions encountered in using them. It concludes that despite the challenges qualitative methods are invaluable in order to understand what poor children see as threats and positive influences on their wellbeing.

Family Diversity and Child Health: Where Do Same‐Sex Couple Families Fit?

Increasing family diversity during the past half century has focused national attention on how children are faring in nontraditional family structures. Much of the limited evidence on children in same‐sex couple families suffers from several shortcomings, including a lack of representative data. We use the National Health Interview Survey (2004–2012) and the National Survey of Children's Health (2011–2012) to identify children in different‐sex married and cohabiting families, never and previously married single‐parent families, and same‐sex couple families. Considering important characteristics such as the child's race or ethnicity and adoption status, household socioeconomic standing, family stability, and parent health, we examine the relationship between family type and parent‐rated overall child health. The results suggest that poorer health among children in same‐sex couple as well as different‐sex cohabiting couple and single‐parent families appears to be largely the product of demographic and socioeconomic differences rather than exposure to nontraditional family forms.     

Development of the Emergency Department Senior Abuse Identification (ED Senior AID) tool

Emergency departments (EDs) are an important health care setting for the identification of elder abuse (EA). Our objective was to develop an ED-based tool to identify EA. The initial tool included a brief cognitive assessment, questions to detect multiple domains of EA, and a physical examination. Refinement of the tool was based on input from clinical experts and nurse and patient feedback. The revised tool, which included 15 questions about EA, was then tested in an academic ED. We calculated the inter-rater reliability, sensitivity, and specificity of individual EA questions. Among ED patients age≥65 (N = 259), 17 (7%) screened positive for suspicion of EA. We identified a combination of six questions that cover the included domains of EA, demonstrated good or excellent inter-rater reliability, and had a sensitivity and specificity of 94% (95% confidence interval (CI) 71–100%) and 90% (95% CI 85–93%), respectively. These results inform a proposed screening tool for multisite validation testing.