Assessing Statistical Results: Magnitude,Precision, and Model Uncertainty

ABSTRACT

Evaluating the importance and the strength of empirical evidence requires asking three questions: First, what are the practical implications of the findings? Second, how precise are the estimates? Confidence intervals provide an intuitive way to communicate precision. Although nontechnical audiences often misinterpret confidence intervals (CIs), I argue that the result is less dangerous than the misunderstandings that arise from hypothesis tests. Third, is the model correctly specified? The validity of point estimates and CIs depends on the soundness of the underlying model.     

Understanding the Ecological Validity of Relying Practice as a Basis for Risk Identification

Understanding the reliability of hazardous organizations and their protective systems is central to understanding the risk they produce. Work on “high reliability organization” has done much to illuminate the conditions in which social organization becomes reliable in highly demanding conditions. But risk depends just as much on how relying entities do their relying as it does on the reliability of the entities they rely on. Patterns of relying are often opaque in sociotechnical systems, and processes of relying and being relied on are mutually influencing in complex ways, so the relationship between relying and risk may not be at all obvious. This study was an attempt to study relying as a social practice, in particular analyzing how it had ecological validity in a social organization—how practice was responsive to the conditions in which it took place. This involved observational fieldwork and inductive, qualitative analysis on an offshore oil and gas production platform that was nearing the end of its design life and undergoing refurbishment. The analysis produced four main categories of ecological validity: responsiveness to formal organization, responsiveness to situational contingency, responsiveness to information asymmetry, and responsiveness to sociomateriality. This ecological validity of relying practice should be a primary focus of risk identification, assessing how relying can become mismatched to reliability in certain ways, both when relying practice is responsive to circumstances and when it is not.     

Pressure to Attend Therapy,Dyadic Adjustment,and Adverse Childhood Experiences: Direct and Indirect Effects on the Therapeutic Alliance in Couples Therapy

In this study we examine the role that pressure to attend therapy, dyadic adjustment, and adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) play in developing the therapeutic alliance. A total of 351 couples received treatment as usual at three family therapy training clinics. Participants rated predictor variables at intake and alliance at the fourth session. Results of a path analysis indicate that each partner's dyadic adjustment is directly associated with the quality of her or his own alliance. In addition, when male partners report more ACEs and pressure to attend treatment, their own alliance scores decrease. Additionally, when one partner reports feeling pressure to attend therapy, the other partner's alliance decreases. Finally, for males, there is an indirect effect of dyadic adjustment on alliance through pressure to attend therapy. These results suggest that clinicians should routinely assess relationship adjustment, how pressured each partner is feeling to attend treatment, and ACEs; as these may impact alliance quality.     

Whither Risk Assessment: New Challenges and Opportunities a Third of a Century After the Red Book

Six multi‐decade‐long members of SRA reflect on the 1983 Red Book in order to examine the evolving relationship between risk assessment and risk management; the diffusion of risk assessment practice to risk areas such as homeland security and transportation; the quality of chemical risk databases; challenges from other groups to elements at the core of risk assessment practice; and our collective efforts to communicate risk assessment to a diverse set of critical groups that do not understand risk, risk assessment, or many other risk‐related issues. The authors reflect on the 10 recommendations in the Red Book and present several pressing challenges for risk assessment practitioners.     

Reflections of an ordinary life

Philip Anderson (not his real name) was one of thirty people who talked to Wendy Booth and Tim Booth as part of their recently published study Growing Up with Parents who have Learning Difficulties (London: Routledge, 1998). Philip's stoy illustrates many of the themes common to the experience of this group: resilience in the face of risk; the importance of family, especially grandma; social exclusion; the effects of hardship; and the enduring nature of parent-child bonds.     

Fertility decline in Scotland, England and Wales, and Ireland: comparisons from the 1911 census of fertility

Data on family size by year of marriage, age at marriage, and duration of marriage, from the 1911 Fertility Census, are compared between Scotland, England and Wales, Irish county boroughs, and the rest of Ireland. While means show significant inter-country differences, from the 1880s marked similarities are found across all the countries in the pattern of fertility decline, strongly suggesting significant fertility limitation in rural Ireland well before 1911. Noting the implications for the use of rural Ireland as a natural fertility population, the data are instead compared with the Coale-Trussell and Hinde-Woods schedules. The former provides more plausible results, which imply strong period rather than cohort effects in the fertility decline. Except in rural Ireland, little evidence is found for significant fertility limitation early in marriage among younger marrying couples, but many older marrying couples appear to have stopped childbearing at very low parities from an early date.     

Intergenerational Activities that Promote Engaging Conversations are Preferred among Young and Older Adults

ABSTRACT

Loneliness negatively affects young and older adults. Intergenerational activities foster social connectedness. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, this study explored which intergenerational activities are most enjoyable for college students and retirement community residents. Demographics, loneliness, enjoyment, conversation level, and type of activity were analyzed. The enjoyment and conversation variables were positively correlated (r = .59, p < .001) which was supported by participants’ narratives. Both populations most enjoyed the activities with higher conversation levels, with the first being committees, followed by meals, one on one activities, and transportation. Retirement communities and universities should promote intergenerational activities, which include meaningful conversations.     

The Dark Side of the Force: A Case Study of Restructuring and Social Capital1

Abstract This paper uses a case study of a Southern textile community to show how a distinct form of social capital is embedded in local networks of power and domination. Textile firms and communities in the South have undergone restructuring: technology and labor processes have modernized, firms have merged, consolidated, or closed, and the number of workers has declined. An analysis of Cannon Mills and its associated mill community of Kannapolis identifies the sources of the paternalist form of social capital that dominated work and community social relations. Corporate mergers, downsizing, technological change, shifts in the labor market, municipal incorporation, and labor organizing contributed to the transformation and decline of paternalistic social capital. The case study reminds social scientists that social capital is a context dependent form of power that can be created, accumulated, or destroyed. While many current analyses treat social capital as an unquestioned positive force, the case study reveals the dark side of social capital.     

Relationships Between Candidate Self-Monitoring, Perceived Personality, and Selection Interview Outcomes

A study into the relationships between candidateself-monitoring ability, interviewer perceptions ofcandidate personality, and interviewer outcome decisionsin the context of actual graduate recruitment interviews (n = 130) is presented. Detailedpsychometric norm data is also reported on the Lennoxand Wolfe (1984) revised Self-Monitoring (RS-M) scale,together with the results of confirmatory factoranalyses into the factor structure of this measure. Itwas found that candidate self-monitoring ability wasonly moderately and nonsignificantly related tointerviewer outcome evaluations, and thatself-monitoring was generally uncorrelated with thepositiveness of recruiter impressions of candidatepersonality. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed thata two correlated factor structure for the RS-M scale, inaccordance with the original authors' formulation,provided the most parsimonious fit. Norm data for theRS-M scale is reported for this sample of Britishgraduates, including item statistics, item to subscale,item to scale correlations, and internal reliabilitycoefficients. Implications for future research intocandidate impression management, self-monitoring,interviewer decision making, and the practicalimplications arising from these findings arediscussed.