The Effects of the Registration System on the Seasonality of Births: The Case of the Soviet Union

Scientists study seasonality in order to understand the effect of environmental, biological, and social factors on demographic events. Poor data quality can also affect seasonal variation in mortality and fertility statistics. The influence of error on seasonal data becomes crucial as researchers analyze timing and spacing of events in time-series analyses. In this study we examine the reported number of births by month in the Soviet Union for 1950, 1955, and 1958–85. The lowest number of births has typically occurred in December, and the highest in January. This seasonal pattern is not consistent with any plausible biological or behavioural explanation. It is probably an artifact of attributing births that actually occurred during the preceding December or earlier, to January. This implies that Soviet statistical practice has not followed the stated policy of attributing births to the period (day, month, year) in which they occur. A substantial reduction between the 1950s and 1985 in the December-January peak in reported births implies marked improvement in Soviet vital registration statistics. The Soviet case shows that characteristics of the registration system can impart a particular seasonal pattern to demographic data. It also shows that officially prescribed procedures are not always followed in data generation, even in centrally planned economies. Researchers should carefully examine the quality of seasonal data before concluding that the data reflect real variations in demographic behaviour.     

Outcomes Assessment of Role-Play Scenarios for Teaching Responsible Conduct of Research

We describe the summative assessment of role-play scenarios that we previously developed to teach central topics in the responsible conduct of research (RCR) to graduate students in science and engineering. Interviews with role-play participants, with participants in a case discussion training session, and with untrained students suggested that role-playing might promote a deeper appreciation of RCR by shifting the focus away from wanting to simply “know the rules.” We also present the results of a think-aloud case analysis study and describe the development of a behaviorally-anchored rating scale (BARS) to assess participants' case analysis performance.     

Exiting the Drug-Addict Role: Variations by Race and Gender

Our paper explores race and gender variations in the processes of exiting a “drug-addict role” and in creating a “recovering-addict role” within the ideological constraints of 12-Step programs. Our method is qualitative and features in-depth interviewing with 45 currently abstinent drug addicts from the 12-Step programs of Alcoholics Anonymous (A.A.) and Narcotics Anonymous (N.A.) in the Washington, D.C., Metropolitan Area as well as a residential and out-patient treatment program in mid-Michigan. Our respondents' exit processes typically began with doubts about the drug addict role followed by an often long and dynamic period of seeking alternatives to it without giving up drugs and alcohol completely. In some cases, however, participation in a new role initiated doubts about an existing one. Contrary to extant research, turning points or epiphanic moments in existing roles were not always identified. Most importantly, however, we found many differences by race and gender in what comprised the exit process. Gender socialization, cultural diversity, and the history of race relations in the United States help to explain this diversity.     

Analysis of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Maternal Cohort Study: Evidence for Direct Maternal Transmission

In an initial exploratory analysis of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) maternal cohort study data we demonstrate several confounding effects in the study design. Given these effects, we assess a variety of statistical models to determine the relative contributions of direct maternal transmission of the aetiological agent of BSE and of genetic susceptibility to the observed maternally enhanced risk of BSE in the offspring of affected dams. To control for the substantial between-herd variation in the risk of exposure to the BSE agent, it is essential that analyses take into account the matched pair structure of the data. Maternal exposure is estimated to be most important in animals born within 150 days of disease onset in their dams. The analysis of a full survival likelihood model indicates that the hypothesis of maternal transmission with no genetic variation in susceptibility fits the data significantly better than the hypothesis of genetically variable susceptibility with no maternal transmission. However, models incorporating both maternal transmission and genetically variable susceptibility fit the data significantly better than pure maternal transmission models. Although genetic susceptibility cannot be excluded as the cause of the cohort study results in the absence of detailed genotyping, the analysis of these study data suggest that low level maternal transmission of BSE is, at least in part, responsible for the significantly enhanced risk of BSE in the offspring of affected dams. Similar results indicating significant maternal transmission in the later stages of the dam incubation period are obtained from the independent analysis of data on the dam–offspring relationships among confirmed BSE cases.     

Estimation of long-term trends and variation in avian survival probabilities using random effects models

We obtained banding and recovery data from the Bird Banding Laboratory (operated by the Biological Resources Division of the US Geological Survey) for adults from 129 avian species that had been continuously banded for > 24 years. Data were partitioned by gender, banding period (winter versus summer), and by states/provinces. Data sets were initially screened for adequacy based on specific criteria (e.g. minimum sample sizes). Fifty-nine data sets (11 waterfowl species, the Mourning Dove and Common Grackle) met our criteria of adequacy for further analysis. We estimated annual survival probabilities using the Brownie et al. recovery model {St, ft} in program MARK. Trends in annual survival and temporal process variation were estimated using random effects models based on shrinkage estimators. Waterfowl species had relatively little variation in annual survival probabilities (mean CV = 8.7% and 10% for males and females, respectively). The limited data for other species suggested similar low temporal variation for males, but higher temporal variation for females (CV = 40%). Evidence for long-term trends varied by species, banding period and sex, with no obvious spatial patterns for either positive or negative trends in survival probabilities. An exception was Mourning Doves banded in Illinois/Missouri and Arizona/New Mexico where both males (slope = -0.0122, se = 0.0019 and females (slope = -0.0109 to -0.0128, se = 0.0018 -0.0032) exhibited declining trends in survival probabilities. We believe our approach has application for large-scale monitoring. However, meaningful banding and recovery data for species other than waterfowl is very limited in North America.     

Reports of Conferences, Institutes, and Seminars

Reports on the 2005 North Carolina Serials Conference, the twentieth anniversary conference of the North American Serials Interest Group, the 2005 Acquisitions Institute at Timberline Lodge, and a program on electronic archiving sponsored by the New England Chapter of the Association of College and Research Libraries.     

EXPLORING A FOURTH DIMENSION: SPIRITUALITY AS A RESOURCE FOR THE COUPLE THERAPIST

This article explores ways in which the therapist's own spirituality can serve as a resource in couple therapy. Spirituality is defined as subjective engagement with a fourth, transcendent dimension of human experience. This engagement enhances human life and evokes corresponding behavior. Spiritually based therapy may be influenced by three assumptions: that God or a Divine Being exists, that human-kind yearns innately for connection with this Being, and that this Being is interested in humans and acts upon and within their relationships to promote beneficial change. In therapy these assumptions affect how the therapist listens and responds throughout sessions. The authors incorporate a case example illustrating the application of this fourth dimension in couple therapy.     

Maximum-likelihood estimates and likelihood-ratio criteria for multivariate elliptically contoured distributions

For a class of multivariate elliptically contoured distributions the maximum-likelihood estimators of the mean vector and covariance matrix are found under certain conditions. Likelihood-ratio criteria are obtained for a class of null hypotheses. These have the same form as in the normal case.