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781.
Population: Past growth and future control 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
Dr. Thomas T. Poleman 《Population and environment》1995,17(1):19-40
This paper is the opening chapter and demographic context of a forthcoming book onThe World's Food. It offers a summation of the Malthusian perception of food and population, an overview of population growth in history and the role of the demographic transition. The varying experiences of developing countries in bringing down the birth rate are examined and used as a basis for projecting future population growth. 相似文献
782.
G. H. Freeman S. D. Jacka J. E. H. Shaw J. Q. Smith 《Journal of applied statistics》1996,23(2):273-284
Central to the activities of any industry is the modernization of its assets. This paper describes the application of statistical methods to the asset management plan of a large water company. A model for the underground assets is given in detail, and the extensive computations required are illustrated. A Bayesian model shows the consequences of various policy options and provides realistic measures of the uncertainty connected with them. 相似文献
783.
P. J. Brown M. Vannucci T. Fearn 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2002,64(3):519-536
Summary. When a number of distinct models contend for use in prediction, the choice of a single model can offer rather unstable predictions. In regression, stochastic search variable selection with Bayesian model averaging offers a cure for this robustness issue but at the expense of requiring very many predictors. Here we look at Bayes model averaging incorporating variable selection for prediction. This offers similar mean-square errors of prediction but with a vastly reduced predictor space. This can greatly aid the interpretation of the model. It also reduces the cost if measured variables have costs. The development here uses decision theory in the context of the multivariate general linear model. In passing, this reduced predictor space Bayes model averaging is contrasted with single-model approximations. A fast algorithm for updating regressions in the Markov chain Monte Carlo searches for posterior inference is developed, allowing many more variables than observations to be contemplated. We discuss the merits of absolute rather than proportionate shrinkage in regression, especially when there are more variables than observations. The methodology is illustrated on a set of spectroscopic data used for measuring the amounts of different sugars in an aqueous solution. 相似文献
784.
Marjorie Smith 《Child & Family Social Work》2004,9(1):3-11
The association between parental mental health problems and negative outcomes for children has been long known. This paper addresses three issues in relation to this. First, the scale of the problem is outlined, in terms of both the prevalence of mental health problems in parents and the likelihood of children exhibiting negative outcomes in these circumstances. Secondly, the specificity, or lack of it, of particular outcomes in the child in relation to different parental mental health problems is explored. Thirdly, the paper focuses on the importance of disruptions to parenting as a mechanism in the transmission of mental health problems to negative impacts on the child. Examples are given of how parenting is disrupted in non‐clinical community populations, and the subsequent impacts on the child. The case is made for the preventative importance of parenting and family support in mediating between parental mental health problems and negative impacts on the child. 相似文献
785.
786.
This article examines the spread of Disability Living Allowance across a group of low income households in an industrial town in North West England from the introduction of the new benefits in 1992 until the Spring of 1996. We focus on the changes over time of the incidence of Disability Living Allowance in the low income population and look at the relative spread of different elements of the benefit. We speculate on whether the new benefits have provided the most effective way of fulfilling the aims of the White Paper, The Way Ahead , and discuss the implications for social and medical models of disability. 相似文献
787.
788.
789.
With data from the 2000 Health and Retirement Study (HRS), the purpose of this study was to provide a profile of older workers who live poverty, and to compare the demographic, financial, employment, and health attributes of such individuals to similar persons not living in poverty. This study found that 3.5% of employed individuals between the ages of 51 and 61 belonged to the class of working poor. The results of the multivariate logistic regression analyses indicated that the older working poor were more likely to be non-White, less educated, non-married, and had lower levels of net worth than the working non-poor. They were more likely to be employed part time and were less likely to be covered by employee-sponsored health insurance. 相似文献
790.