Bayesian modeling of temporal properties of infectious disease in a college student population

A Bayesian statistical model is developed for analysis of the time-evolving properties of infectious disease, with a particular focus on viruses. The model employs a latent semi-Markovian state process, and the state-transition statistics are driven by three terms: (i) a general time-evolving trend of the overall population, (ii) a semi-periodic term that accounts for effects caused by the days of the week, and (iii) a regression term that relates the probability of infection to covariates (here, specifically, to the Google Flu Trends data). Computations are performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Results are presented using a novel data set: daily self-reported symptom scores from hundreds of Duke University undergraduate students, collected over three academic years. The illnesses associated with these students are (imperfectly) labeled using real-time (RT) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for several viruses, and gene-expression data were also analyzed. The statistical analysis is performed on the daily, self-reported symptom scores, and the RT PCR and gene-expression data are employed for analysis and interpretation of the model results.     

Johnson and Johnson phantom recall: A fall from grace or a re-visit of the ghost of the past

This paper addresses and evaluates the case of Johnson and Johnson's crisis management. In an attempt to analyze the case, the paper overviews Johnson and Johnson's Tylenol product tampering in the 1980s and its recent phantom recall of Children's Motrin. The assessment of the company's crisis management was done using the anticipatory model of crisis management (AMCM). Conclusions drawn from this assessment put Johnson and Johnson in a different spotlight than it had enjoyed during its earlier crisis management efforts. Implications for organizational crisis management efforts are also presented.     

Maternal Hurricane Exposure and Fetal Distress Risk

Logistic regression and spatial analytic techniques are used to model fetal distress risk as a function of maternal exposure to Hurricane Andrew. First, monthly time series compare the proportion of infants born distressed in hurricane affected and unaffected areas. Second, resident births are analyzed in Miami‐Dade and Broward counties, before, during, and after Hurricane Andrew. Third, resident births are analyzed in all Florida locales with 100,000 or more persons, comparing exposed and unexposed gravid females. Fourth, resident births are analyzed along Hurricane Andrew's path from southern Florida to northeast Mississippi. Results show that fetal distress risk increases significantly with maternal exposure to Hurricane Andrew in second and third trimesters, adjusting for known risk factors. Distress risk also correlates with the destructive path of Hurricane Andrew, with higher incidences of fetal distress found in areas of highest exposure intensity. Hurricane exposed African‐American mothers were more likely to birth distressed infants. The policy implications of in utero costs of natural disaster exposure are discussed.     

A qualitative analysis of faculty advocacy on LGBT issues on campus

Faculty activism is an integral part of shared governance in higher education institutions, yet little is known about the dynamics that underlie this activism. Using oral history interviews with 30 faculty members working to secure lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT)-supportive policies on their respective campuses, this article identifies reasons the faculty members became involved in this advocacy, types of advocacy in which they engaged, factors associated with engaging in advocacy, and challenges facing these faculty advocates. Specific dynamics facing LGBT faculty are discussed, and predictions are made for the future of faculty advocacy on LGBT campus policy issues.     

Fingerprint-based background checks for personal care workers: Stakeholder views of policy criteria

Decision makers face difficult choices when tasked with identifying and implementing appropriate mechanisms for protecting the elderly and other vulnerable adults from abuse. A pilot project involving fingerprint-based criminal history background checks for personal care workers in Michigan has supplied an opportunity to examine one such mechanism. In conjunction with the pilot project, we have conducted a stakeholder analysis with the aim of informing decision makers about stakeholder perceptions of standard policy criteria like effectiveness, efficiency, and equity. We employed focus groups and a Web-based survey to collect data from stakeholders. While stakeholders generally see fingerprint-based background checks for personal care workers as potentially effective and as a net benefit, they also point to a variety of contingencies. They also recognize difficulties and constraints for government involvement. This preliminary analysis provides solid foundational information for decision makers and for more extensive benefit–cost analysis.     

A Focus on the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE)

For over four decades, the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) has been operated by nonprofit organizations. Research has demonstrated that nonprofit PACE provides quality, cost-effective community-based care to older adults who would otherwise require a nursing home level of care. Recently, the U.S. Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services has authorized for-profit entities to operate PACE, contingent on their ability to demonstrate that they can provide care that is similar to nonprofit PACE with regard to access to care, quality of care, and cost-effectiveness. In 2013, a study was conducted to evaluate how PACE operates under for-profit versus nonprofit status. The results were presented to Congress which, in turn, authorized for-profit PACE providers. This article critiques the 2013 study, offers a comparison to for-profit hospice, and argues that at best there is not enough evidence to conclude that for-profit PACE provides the same quality of care as existing nonprofit operators.     

The Influence of Grandparents in Single‐Mother Families

This article examines whether children living with single mothers benefit when they also live with a grandparent, using data from the 1979 to 2002 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth merged mother‐child file (N = 6,501). Results indicate that for White children, living with a single mother and a grandparent is associated with increased cognitive stimulation and higher reading recognition scores, compared to living with a single mother alone. For Black children, grandparent coresidence is associated with less cognitive stimulation. Thus, in some instances, living with a grandparent can benefit children, but the pattern of results differs by race.     

The internal validity of the index of spouse abuse in African American women

This study investigated the internal validity of the Index of Spouse Abuse (ISA) (Hudson & McIntosh, 1981) in a sample of 583 African American women who sought health care at a tertiary care hospital in Atlanta, Georgia. Three models were tested with confirmatory factor techniques: (a) Hudson and McIntosh's original Index of Spouse Abuse two factor model; (b) Campbell, Campbell, Parker, and Ryan's three factor model (Campbell, Campbell, King, Parker, & Ryan, 1994); and (c) an alternative model of physical and nonphysical abuse. This alternative model is based in part on Tolman's conceptualization of psychological abuse as a construct comprised of two related but distinct factors: controlling and emotionally abusive behaviors (Tolman, 1999). Results show that the alternative model fits the data better than the first two models. Findings support the continued use of the ISA, but with proposed modifications.     

Trade-offs among the elements of flexibility: a comparison from the automotive industry

Flexibility has long been recognized as a manufacturing capability that has the potential to impact the competitive position and the business performance of an organization ([1]: Cox Jr, T. Toward the measurement of manufacturing flexibility. Production and Inventory Management Journal 1989; First Quarter:68–72, [2]: De Meyer A, Nakane J, Miller JG, Ferdows K. Flexibility: the next competitive battle. Strategic Management Journal 1989;10:135–144). This recognition, however, has not led to a unanimous approach to flexibility. For example, Japanese manufacturers emphasize flexibility more than North American or European manufacturers ( [2]: De Meyer A, Nakane J, Miller JG, Ferdows K. Flexibility: the next competitive battle. Strategic Management Journal 1989;10:135–144). While this finding provides insight into the strategic choices made by these organizations in these countries, it does not provide an in-depth comparison of specific aspects of flexibility that are leveraged and emphasized differently. Such a comparison is necessary, however, if flexibility is to be more fully understood.This paper takes a step in that direction by first breaking down the concept of flexibility into its constituent elements and dimensions. Then we introduce the notion of looking at flexibility as a capability that must be planned for and built by a firm over a period of time along these constituent elements and dimensions. Questions are subsequently raised regarding whether trade-offs occur among different elements for a given flexibility dimension. We use industry wide as well as firm-specific qualitative data from the automotive industry to answer these questions, and show that several key aspects of manufacturing flexibility have been acquired and leveraged differently by American and Japanese producers. While linkages to business performance are not directly explored, our analysis reveals that even within the same industry, firms from different countries do indeed follow different strategies to developing their flexibility capability. Implications of these results for managerial practice, along with avenues for further research in this area, are also presented.