部分状态可见的隐马尔可夫模型状态序列的估计方法

本文考虑了部分状态可见的隐马尔可夫模型的状态序列估计问题,在分析了现有算法无法合理估计状态路径之后,以状态转移概率、观测概率和可见状态作为先验信息,通过贝叶斯分析计算可见状态前后向状态的后验概率,并给出初始条件和递推公式,运用动态规划递推得到每个观测值对应的最可能状态以及最可能的状态路径。最后,本文给出一个系统故障识别的应用例子,验证了所设计算法的可行性。     

In Whose Interest? The UN's Strategic Rapprochement with Business in the Sustainable Development Agenda

Following the Rio+20 conference and in anticipation of the end of the Millennium Development Goals, the United Nations is at the centre of debates on the future of sustainable development. In these debates, the UN Secretariat has positioned transnational corporations as essential and legitimate actors for new sustainable development goals. This policy does not follow a direct mandate from member states. Rather, the UN's rapprochement with business in the ‘Post-2015’ process should be seen as an example of independent decision-making by the organization within the constraints of the current world order. This strategy dates back to the late 1990s and is meant to increase the UN's authority and legitimacy and expand its mandate by making it more relevant to powerful actors in the international arena. The article questions whether the organization's strategy vis-à-vis business is producing the anticipated effects, or rather reveals institutional dysfunction.     

Reinvigorating the social contract and strengthening social cohesion: Social protection responses to COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of those who are inadequately covered by social protection in more and less developed countries alike, and has exacerbated the fragility of a social contract that was already under strain in many countries. A weak social contract in the context of an exceptional crisis poses a very real risk to social cohesion. Nevertheless, many States have reasserted themselves as the guarantor of rights by protecting public health and incomes. By sustaining these measures, economic recovery will be supported which will help minimize risks that may weaken social cohesion. However, this is a fast-moving, inherently unstable and protracted crisis. Social protection stands at a critical juncture. Decisive policy action will be required to strengthen social protection systems, including floors, as one of the cornerstones of a reinvigorated social contract.     

我国城市休闲化发展质量的评价研究

城市休闲化是当代城市发展中的一个新课题。本文结合我国城市休闲化发展的实际状况,通过构建由公共基础、消费能力、产业能力和特色资源等4方面指标组成的城市休闲化质量测评体系,对我国27个省会城市、4个直辖市和5个计划单列市的发展质量进行比较全面和客观的质量测度与数据分析。研究表明,我国城市休闲化质量在整体上处于较低的发展程度。     

移植与创新：近代中国公司立法之路

在中国近代史上,商事立法是中国法制现代化的起点,晚清《公司律》是中国法制现代化的开篇之作。从《公司律》到南京国民政府《公司法》,移植西方国家法律制度是近代中国公司立法的主要途径。但回顾近代中国公司立法史,我们发现：近代中国公司立法为适应各时期工商经济发展的需要,从不缺少在移植基础上的大胆创新。近代中国公司法一贯采用的集诸多公司类型于一体的单行法模式,对世界公司立法也是具有贡献意义的立法经验。     

主体的内在本质与“对象性存在”的悬搁

胡塞尔试图通过"对象性存在"的悬搁达到对象内在性本质的澄明,认为任何"对象"都无非是主体的内在本质的"意向",并且这种悬搁只有主体才能把握。主体的这种对"对象性存在"的悬搁,其目的是确认内在本质的保持。所以,我们说胡塞尔所进行的全部还原,实际上正是内在"本质"的保持,而不是对这种意指"对象"的悬搁,所悬搁的只是外在的"对象性存在"。     

Sample size estimation for comparing rates of change in K-group repeated count outcomes

Sample size estimation for comparing the rates of change in two-arm repeated measurements has been investigated by many investigators. In contrast, the literature has paid relatively less attention to sample size estimation for studies with multi-arm repeated measurements where the design and data analysis can be more complex than two-arm trials. For continuous outcomes, Jung and Ahn (2004 Jung, S., Ahn, C. (2004). K-sample test and sample size calculation for comparing slopes in data with repeated measurements. Biometrical J. 46(5):554–564.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Zhang and Ahn (2013 Zhang, S., Ahn, C. (2013). Sample size calculation for comparing time-averaged responses in k-group repeated measurement studies. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 58:283–291.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) have presented sample size formulas to compare the rates of change and time-averaged responses in multi-arm trials, using the generalized estimating equation (GEE) approach. To our knowledge, there has been no corresponding development for multi-arm trials with count outcomes. We present a sample size formula for comparing the rates of change in multi-arm repeated count outcomes using the GEE approach that accommodates various correlation structures, missing data patterns, and unbalanced designs. We conduct simulation studies to assess the performance of the proposed sample size formula under a wide range of designing configurations. Simulation results suggest that empirical type I error and power are maintained close to their nominal levels. The proposed method is illustrated using an epileptic clinical trial example.     

我国政府投资运行机制:原理、问题与对策

作为社会经济发展必不可少的政府投资如何不断提高投资的效益是我们必须关注的重要研究课题。在分析政府投资运行机制基本原理的基础上,对我国政府投资中存在的问题进行深入分析,并提出了完善我国政府投资运行机制的对策。     

以舆抗争：农民维权方式的新变化

进入新世纪以来,由土地开发、征地纠纷等引发的农民维权现象较为普遍,有些甚至升级为重大群体性事件,给人民生命财产造成了重大损失。面对这些冲突,农民维权方式先后经历了＂日常抵抗＂、＂依法抗争＂和＂以法抗争＂三种行为模式的演变。作为转型期农民维权的新方式,＂以舆抗争＂有其自己独特的产生原因和维权步骤,也有自身其正、负两方面的社会效应,需要全面把握。＂以舆抗争＂的出现并不会完全取代传统维权方式,而是会在特定的维权情境中以最优的效果和其他维权方式进行组合,成为今后一段时期内越来越常见的维权方式,更加有力地表达农民的权利诉求,实现权利的维护。