Moment‐Independent Sensitivity Analysis Using Copula

In risk assessment, the moment‐independent sensitivity analysis (SA) technique for reducing the model uncertainty has attracted a great deal of attention from analysts and practitioners. It aims at measuring the relative importance of an individual input, or a set of inputs, in determining the uncertainty of model output by looking at the entire distribution range of model output. In this article, along the lines of Plischke et al., we point out that the original moment‐independent SA index (also called delta index) can also be interpreted as the dependence measure between model output and input variables, and introduce another moment‐independent SA index (called extended delta index) based on copula. Then, nonparametric methods for estimating the delta and extended delta indices are proposed. Both methods need only a set of samples to compute all the indices; thus, they conquer the problem of the “curse of dimensionality.” At last, an analytical test example, a risk assessment model, and the levelE model are employed for comparing the delta and the extended delta indices and testing the two calculation methods. Results show that the delta and the extended delta indices produce the same importance ranking in these three test examples. It is also shown that these two proposed calculation methods dramatically reduce the computational burden.     

被神经性毒剂染毒的蛋白IgG中有机磷加合物的研究

本文对IgG与神经性毒剂的加合物进行了研究。用过量的神经性毒剂(沙林、梭曼、VX、环沙林)对IgG(人、大鼠IgG)进行体外染毒,用胰蛋白酶进行酶解,所得样品用Q Exactive LC-MS/MS方法进行分析鉴定,发现了IgG与神经性毒剂的加合物肽段。其中,从人的IgG中发现了4个被标记的肽段,从大鼠的IgG中发现了1个被标记的肽段,另外,还从肽段的二级谱图中发现了酪氨酸加合物的特征离子碎片。本文首次发现了被神经性毒剂标记的IgG肽段,进而说明IgG是鉴定神经性毒剂中毒的一类重要的标记蛋白。     

Trend smoothness achieved by penalized least squares with the smoothing parameter chosen by optimality criteria

This work presents a study about the smoothness attained by the methods more frequently used to choose the smoothing parameter in the context of splines: Cross Validation, Generalized Cross Validation, and corrected Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria, implemented with Penalized Least Squares. It is concluded that the amount of smoothness strongly depends on the length of the series and on the type of underlying trend, while the presence of seasonality even though statistically significant is less relevant. The intrinsic variability of the series is not statistically significant and its effect is taken into account only through the smoothing parameter.     

Long-term care in Spain: Difficulties in professionalizing services

The aim of this article is to analyze the difficulties in professionalizing the long-term care system in Spain. Since 2006, the new Spanish law has recognized care as a subjective right, and regulations are being designed to create a framework for its professionalization. Nowadays, family remains the most important group of providers who care for their elders, and women remain the main informal caregivers. Why do families resist using public long-term care services and professional carers included in the new law? The hypothesis highlights sociocultural factors as an obstacle to professionalization of long-term care services in addition to political and economic factors. The results show qualitative data about expectations, preferences, and discourses that women caregivers have in relation to their responsibility. The empirical material includes 25 interviews with different profiles of caregivers and six focus groups with family caregivers. The article suggests that the Spanish ideal of care is a problem for the professionalization of services because the family remains as the main provider of care—without specific skills, knowledge, and abilities.     

Sport and disability: Pistorius does not fit with the categories

Oscar Pistorius presents a major issue to sports organisations, as exposed in the media. First and foremost, media wrongly perceive him as the first disabled athlete to participate in the Olympic Games. Second, they openly question the legitimacy of his participation mainly based on the inequity introduced by his prosthetic legs. Content analysis, in English and French, of written press, International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) and Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) texts, from 2004 to 2012, confirms that Pistorius presents a new puzzle to sports organizations. This is partly because they are not able to determine whether his performances are a result of his body strength or if they are biased by his artificial limbs. Furthermore, when he is competing against able-bodied athletes, sports organizsations put him in a ‘monstrous’ position. Similarly, while categorising him as an ‘athlete’ they do not grant him the characteristic feature of this category: certified comparability of performances to ultimately establish ranks.     

The Slaughtered and the Survivors: Collaboration Between Social Economy Organizations as a Key to Success in Times of Financial Crisis

The objective of this study is to analyze the aspects that allowed a critical part of Social Economy Organizations (SEOs) to survive a recession period, especially participation in collaborative networks. The financial stress of an SEO will depend on the resources and capabilities available to the organization. To analyze the financial stress of Spanish SEOs, we defined a sample of 714 SEOs. Approximately half of these organizations suffered from financial stress in the analyzed period (2009–2012). The results obtained in this study reveal the existence of three factors that distinguish organizations under financial stress: (a) a high dependence on government funding; (b) changes in the relationship between staff and volunteers; and (c) a lack of access to markets. The combination of these three elements results in an unsustainable situation for the organization. The development of a collaborative profile increases the SEO’s probability of surviving the adverse manifestations of its environment.     

城市经济圈发展助推区域一体化——兼论南沙新区与港澳的经济合作

根据区域一体化理论,结合新时期广东省在推进珠三角一体化中,建立和发展广佛肇、深莞惠和珠中江三个经济圈的实践,分析了区域经济一体化对区域整体发展的新意义、地位和作用,讨论了珠江三角洲通过建设和发展若干个以经济发展为核心的现代都市圈,对于新时期加强与港澳经济合作,促进区域经济一体化的更好发展颇具深远的意义和作用。     

基于分权视角的城市规划管理体制模式及改革建议

关于我国的城市规划管理权限一直存在＂集中＂与＂放权＂的讨论,并且城市规划管理体制也存在差异。通过对全国部分城市的规划管理体制进行梳理,从市、区（县、市）两级分权视角总结出我国城市规划管理体制中的＂垂直型＂、＂半垂直型＂和＂非垂直型＂三种典型模式,分别以南京、北京和上海为案例分析三种规划管理体制典型模式的主要特点和事权划分,并对其各自的优缺点进行比较,最后提出我国城市规划管理体制改革的若干建议,包括将规划决策权＂上收＂与实施管理重心＂下移＂、建立＂市—区—镇（街）＂三级规划管理机构体系、整合市区两级规划部门内部机构设置形成＂大处室＂和＂大科室＂以及完善城市规划委员会制度等。     

解析《野性的呼唤》中的自然主义

杰克.伦敦是美国自然主义作家中的杰出代表,他的作品《野性的呼唤》则充分体现了战胜敌人后而存活所需的力量与勇气,表达了适者生存的原则。而巴克传奇经历及其主题思想的揭示对当今中国不能不说有其特定的社会教育意义。     

An empirical comparison of two approaches for CDPCA in high-dimensional data

Statistical Methods & Applications - Modified principal component analysis techniques, specially those yielding sparse solutions, are attractive due to its usefulness for interpretation...