Autoregressive Moving Average Infinite Hidden Markov-Switching Models

Markov-switching models are usually specified under the assumption that all the parameters change when a regime switch occurs. Relaxing this hypothesis and being able to detect which parameters evolve over time is relevant for interpreting the changes in the dynamics of the series, for specifying models parsimoniously, and may be helpful in forecasting. We propose the class of sticky infinite hidden Markov-switching autoregressive moving average models, in which we disentangle the break dynamics of the mean and the variance parameters. In this class, the number of regimes is possibly infinite and is determined when estimating the model, thus avoiding the need to set this number by a model choice criterion. We develop a new Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation method that solves the path dependence issue due to the moving average component. Empirical results on macroeconomic series illustrate that the proposed class of models dominates the model with fixed parameters in terms of point and density forecasts.     

The Influence of Attitude to Money on Individuals’ Financial Well-Being

Social Indicators Research - Using the quarterly data of the United Kingdom (UK) for the period from 1975Q1 to 2016Q1, the paper analyses the dynamic and the asymmetric responses of inequality to...     

Ethnic penalties? The role of human capital and social origins in labour market outcomes of second-generation Moroccans and Turks in the Netherlands

In Western Europe, the children of Moroccan and Turkish migrants were found to be significantly disadvantaged in the labour market. This ethnic gap was found to persist after considering differences in schooling, which was argued to reflect ‘ethnic penalties’ driven by cultural, religious, or racial factors. This study uses data from the 1st Wave of the ‘Netherlands Longitudinal Life-Course Study’ (2009–2010) to revisit the analysis of ‘ethnic penalties’ for second-generation Moroccans and Turks. Unlike in previous research, empirical analyses not only consider differences in schooling, but also skills and social origins. Results show substantial ethnic inequalities in the labour market, with the exception of women from Moroccan origins. For men, these ethnic inequalities do not disappear when human capital factors are considered, but they do when accounting for the unprivileged social origins of ethnic minorities. For women, the disadvantage of second-generation Turks in achieving privileged occupations clearly disappears when human capital and social origins are considered. Yet, the chances of being unemployed among women of Turkish origins persist after controlling for education, skills, and social origins. Overall, this study has global academic and public policy implications to understand the socioeconomic integration of the Moroccan and Turkish second generation in Western Europe.     

Bequests and family traditions: the case of nineteenth century France

Like father, like son: is the bequest behavior of children “inherited” from that of their parents? Most economic models (altruistic, paternalistic or exchange models) postulate that bequest behavior does not depend per se on parents’ behavior. Yet because of data limitations, few empirical studies have analyzed the link between bequests left and inheritances received. In this paper, we evaluate the effect of inheritance relative to lifetime income on the amount that individuals bequeath, in the case of France. This study uses original historical data including wealth genealogies covering the nineteenth and first half of the twentieth centuries for the Loire Inférieure département. Empirical evidence suggests that the propensity to bequeath is much greater for inheritance than for human resources: a deceased having inherited twice the average wealth leaves 35–60 % more to his own heirs that the average for his generation. In nineteenth century France, bequests are explained more by inheritance received than by personal savings per se.     

Is the Pendulum Swinging Back? Patterns of Skill Change in the Machine-Tool Industry

In this paper, we focus on the results of the Belgian Trend Study. The intention of this study was to examine the prevalence of new production concepts within the widest possible range of Belgian companies in the automobile, machine tool, chemical and clothing industries. The Trend-study aimed to answer the following questions: is the Taylorist division of labour a thing of the past ? What are the alternatives? Are shifts in the division of labour accompanied by another type of personnel policy, and do traditional industrial relations have to make way for this new approach? The methodological concept used had to guarantee that the findings at the level of each industry could be generalized. In this paper, we examine the penetration of new production concepts in the main processing fields of the machine tool industry.     

No overall effect of urbanization on nest-dwelling arthropods of great tits (Parus major).

Urbanization has been shown to strongly affect community composition of various taxa with potentially strong shifts in ecological interactions, including those between hosts and parasites. We investigated the effect of urbanization on the composition of arthropods in nests of great tits in Flanders, Belgium. These nests contain taxonomically and functionally diverse arthropod communities including parasites, predators, detritivores and accidental commensals. Using a standardized hierarchical sampling design with subplots (200 m?×?200 m) nested in plots (3 km?×?3 km) of varying urbanization levels, we collected arthropods from nests of resident great tits after the young had fledged. Arthropods were extracted, identified to Primary Taxonomical Groups (PTG) and counted. Using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) we found diverging effects of urbanization on PTG occurrences and abundances at various levels, but we did not find an overall signal in arthropod diversity or richness. Also, visual inspection of non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) plots did not reveal any community differences between urbanization levels at plot or subplot scales. Land use and environmental variables at different distances around nestboxes did not contribute much to the variation between communities. Our results indicate that arthropod nestbox communities are generally not adversely affected by urbanization, and even city gardens and parks harbor comparable communities to forests and suburban areas. We thus found no evidence for a parasite release effect due to urbanization, nor an increased risk of parasitism in human-dominated environments.

     

The objects that personalize bedrooms and their relationship with attachment and self / Los objetos que personalizan los dormitorios y su relación con el apego y el self

The personalization of space is constructed through the items that the resident distributes around the space they inhabit, and they can be considered part of the resident’s self. Three studies were conducted with the goal of establishing the categories into which the objects contained in bedrooms can be organized and to evaluate to what extent these categories are related to the extended self and attachment. In the first study, with 77 students, we obtained a list of the most representative objects in their bedrooms. In the next study, a group of 56 students classified these objects freely using their own criteria; a subsequent cluster analysis showed four categories: Functional, Personal Grooming, Symbolic and Free Time. In the last study, 144 students evaluated the relationship between the categories of the objects and the extended self and attachment. The results showed that the residents’ representative objects were part of their extended self more than the level of attachment attributed to these objects.     

A SNP,Gene, and Polygenic Risk Score Approach of Oxytocin‐Vasopressin Genes in Adolescents’ Loneliness

Not much is known regarding underlying biological pathways to adolescents’ loneliness. Insight in underlying molecular mechanisms could inform intervention efforts aimed at reducing loneliness. Using latent growth curve modeling, baseline levels and development of loneliness were studied in two longitudinal adolescent samples. Genes (OXTR, OXT, AVPR1A, AVPR1B) were examined using SNP‐based, gene‐based, and polygenic risk score (PRS) approaches. In both samples, SNP‐ and gene‐based tests showed involvement of the OXTR gene in development of loneliness, though, significance levels did not survive correction for multiple testing. The PRS approach provided no evidence for relations with loneliness. We recommend alternative phenotyping methods, including environmental factors, to consider epigenetic studies, and to examine possible endophenotypes in relation to adolescents’ loneliness.     

Externalizing Problem Behavior in Adolescence: Parenting Interacting With DAT1 and DRD4 Genes

This study extends previous gene‐by‐environment (G × E) research through design and methodological advances and examines alternative hypotheses of diathesis stress, vantage sensitivity, and differential susceptibility. In a sample of 984 adolescents and their parents, we examined whether effects of parental support, proactive, punitive, harsh punitive, and psychological control on externalizing problem behavior are moderated by adolescents' genotype for the dopamine transporter (DAT1) or receptor D4 (DRD4) gene. Results provided evidence for main effects of parenting behavior and DRD4, and multiple interaction effects of which one survived Bonferroni correction. Adolescents carrying a long DRD4 variant were more susceptible to the effects of parental proactive control on aggression, for better and for worse. Critical considerations were made regarding the complexity of G × E research.     

Transmission and inequality of wealth: An empirical study of wealth mobility from 1800 to 1938 in France

This paper endeavors to measure the intergenerational transmission of wealth inequalities over the 1800–1938 period. For this purpose, we have consulted historical data composed of wealth genealogies covering the 19th and first half of the 20th centuries. The database was created from families included in the “3,000 families” survey of those individuals residing in the Loire-Inférieure département. The empirical study reveals a relatively large degree of intergenerational immobility: those whose father had twice the average level of wealth themselves upon death leave behind 1.45 times the average wealth of their generation.