A la recherche de la puissance culturelle dans les relations internationales: essai de caractérisation du concept et d'appréhension du phénomène

Dès lors qu'on admet que la puissance se joue sur plusieurs échiquiers politique, militaire, économique et culturel, il importe de prendre la puissance culturelle au sérieux; car, elle marque l'assujettissement des esprits, le contrôle des manières de penser, de représenter ou de signifier par un groupe ou par un individu. On comprend alors que la puissance culturelle soit au c?ur des relations internationales en tant qu'attribut d'acteur étatique ou non étatique, facteur d'hiérarchisation et enjeu.     

Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Disequilibrium Models: An Application to the Polish Credit Market

We propose a Bayesian approach for inference in a dynamic disequilibrium model. To circumvent the difficulties raised by the Maddala and Nelson (1974) specification in the dynamic case, we analyze a dynamic extended version of the disequilibrium model of Ginsburgh et al. (1980). We develop a Gibbs sampler based on the simulation of the missing observations. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated by an empirical analysis of the Polish credit market, for which we conduct a specification search using the posterior deviance criterion of Spiegelhalter et al. (2002).     

On random variate generation for the generalized hyperbolic secant distributions

We give random variate generators for the generalized hyperbolic secant distribution and related families such as Morris's skewed generalized hyperbolic secant family and a family introduced by Laha and Lukacs. The rejection method generators are uniformly fast over the parameter space and are based upon a complex function representation of the distributions due to Harkness and HarknessThe author's research was sponsored by NSERC Grant A3456 and FCAR Grant 90-ER-0291.     

The strong uniform convergence of multivariate variable kernel estimates

We show that sup, completely as, where f is a uniformly continuous density on are independent random vectors with common density f, and f_n is the variable kernel estimate Here H_ni is the distance between X_i and its kth nearest neighbour, K is a given density satisfying some regularity conditions, and k is a sequence of integers with the property that log asn     

Recursive estimation of the mode of a multivariate density

Let f be an unknown possibly multimodal density on R^d and let X₁, X₂, … be a sequence of independent random vectors with density f. Several recursive estimates of the mode of f are proposed, and sufficient conditions ensuring their weak and strong consistency are established.     

What sex abusers say about their treatment: results from a qualitative study on pedophiles in treatment at a Canadian penitentiary clinic

This exploratory study used qualitative methodology to examine what pedophiles think about treatment, as well as their daily experience of a treatment program. To this end, twenty-three offenders receiving treatment from the La Macaza federal penitentiary clinic were interviewed using non-directive semi-structured interviews. Comparative analysis was used to analyze the resulting material. The following themes are discussed based on the results of this analysis: (a) the participants' past experience of therapy; (b) motivations for choosing the La Macaza clinic for treatment; (c) the structure of the program; (d) the group dynamics; (e) the therapists; and (f) the hardships and difficulties of treatment. Results suggest that the therapists and the program may have a function of containment or holding. Although part of the therapeutic process involves a focus on identifying and reducing cognitive distortions, results also warn therapists against misusing this concept by applying it to legitimately different opinions. Findings are discussed in terms of possible program improvements. The authors conclude that greater attention must be given to process research.     

Risk Prevention and Policy-Making in Automatic Systems

Accidents with automatic production systems are reported to be on the order of one in a hundred or thousand robot-years, while fatal accidents are found to occur one or two orders of magnitude less frequently. Traditions in occupational safety tend to seek for safety targets in terms of zero severe accidents for automatic systems. Decision-making requires a risk assessment balancing potential risk reduction measures and costs within the cultural environment of a production company. This paper presents a simplified procedure which acts as a decision tool. The procedure is based on a risk concept approaching prevention both in a deterministic and in a probabilistic manner. Eight accident scenarios are shown to represent the potential accident processes involving robot interactions with people. Seven prevention policies are shown to cover the accident scenarios in principle. An additional probabilistic approach may indicate which extra safety measures can be taken against what risk reduction and additional costs. The risk evaluation process aims at achieving a quantitative acceptable risk level. For that purpose, three risk evaluation methods are discussed with respect to reaching broad consensus on the safety targets.     

Toward Less Division of Labor? New Production Concepts in the Automotive, Chemical, Clothing, and Machine Tool Industries

In this contribution, we focus on the results ofthe Belgian Trend Study. The intention of this study wasto examine the prevalence of new production conceptswithin the widest possible range of companies in the automotive, the machine tool, thechemical, and the clothing industries. The Trend Studyaimed to answer the following questions: is theTaylorist division of labor a thing of the past? Whatare the alternatives? Are shifts in the division oflabor accompanied by another type of personnel policy,and do traditional industrial relations have to make wayfor this new approach? The methodological concept used had to guarantee that the findingsat the level of each industry could be generalized.Though the picture emerging from the empirical datacollected in the four industrial sectors is inevitablydiverse, the data make it possible merely to suggest aneo- rather than a post-Taylorist or -Fordistconcept.     

A Risk-Benefit Analysis of French High Fish Consumption: A QALY Approach

The health risk and the nutritional benefit of a food are usually assessed separately. Toxicologists recommend limiting the consumption of certain fish because of methylmercury; while nutritionists recommend eating more oily fish because of omega 3. A common evaluation is imperative to provide coherent recommendations. In order to evaluate the risks along with the benefits related to fish consumption, a common metric based on the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) method has been used. The impact of a theoretical change from a medium n-3 PUFAs intake to a high intake is studied, in terms of the cardiovascular system (CHD mortality, stroke mortality and morbidity) and on fetal neuronal development (IQ loss or gain). This application can be considered as a sensitive analysis of the model used and looks at the impact of changing the dose-response relationships between cardiovascular diseases and n-3 PUFAs intakes. Results show that increasing fish consumption may have a beneficial impact on health. However, the confidence interval of the overall estimation has a negative lower bound, which means that this increase in fish consumption may have a negative impact due to MeHg contamination. Some limits of the QALY approach are identified. The first concerns determination of the dose-response relationships. The second concerns the economic origins of the approach and of individual preferences. Finally, since only one beneficial aspect and one risk element were studied, consideration should be given to how other beneficial and risk components may be integrated in the model.