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61.
Christopher J. Erceg Luca Guerrieri Christopher Gust 《Journal of the European Economic Association》2005,3(6):1237-1278
Galí's innovative approach of imposing long‐run restrictions on a vector autoregression (VAR) to identify the effects of a technology shock has become widely utilized. In this paper, we investigate its reliability through Monte Carlo simulations using calibrated business cycle models. Overall, Galí's methodology appears to be fruitful: the impulse responses derived from the artificial data generally have the same sign and qualitative pattern as the true responses, and the approach can be informative in discriminating between alternative models. However, our results reveal some important quantitative shortcomings, including considerable estimation uncertainty about the impact of technology shocks on macroeconomic variables. More generally, the conditions under which the methodology performs well appear considerably more restrictive than implied by the key identifying assumption. This underscores the importance of using economic models to guide in the implementation of the approach, in interpreting the results, and in assessing its limitations. (JEL: C32, E32, O33) 相似文献
62.
Investigations of multivariate population are pretty common in applied researches, and the two-way crossed factorial design is a common design used at the exploratory phase in industrial applications. When assumptions such as multivariate normality and covariance homogeneity are violated, the conventional wisdom is to resort to nonparametric tests for hypotheses testing. In this paper we compare the performances, and in particular the power, of some nonparametric and semi-parametric methods that have been developed in recent years. Specifically, we examined resampling methods and robust versions of classical multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) tests. In a simulation study, we generate data sets with different configurations of factor''s effect, number of replicates, number of response variables under null hypothesis, and number of response variables under alternative hypothesis. The objective is to elicit practical advice and guides to practitioners regarding the sensitivity of the tests in the various configurations, the tradeoff between power and type I error, the strategic impact of increasing number of response variables, and the favourable performance of one test when the alternative is sparse. A real case study from an industrial engineering experiment in thermoformed packaging production is used to compare and illustrate the application of the various methods. 相似文献
63.
The autonomy of a country’s central bank from political authorities has been advocated both as a remedy against the inflationary bias that would otherwise be present in the conduct of the government’s monetary policy and, more recently, on the basis of empirical evidence. However, both theoretical arguments and empirical findings have associated central bank autonomy with the conduct of monetary policy, while often failing to pay attention to those institutional cases where a central bank is in place but is not responsible for the conduct of monetary policy. These cases are particularly relevant for those countries which do not possess their own currency, or where extreme monetary regimes such as dollarization, currency boards, or monetary unions are present. These institutional settings, where a central bank exists, but there is no monetary policy to be conducted, raise the issue of central bank autonomy in a framework where the inflation bias is no longer pertinent. In other words: Is central bank autonomy still a relevant objective when a country does not run its own monetary policy? The present paper addresses this question, discusses dimensions of autonomy and accountability and maintains that central bank autonomy still does matter, particularly if the central bank is responsible for bank supervision and financial regulation. 相似文献
64.
This paper considers a general equilibrium model in which the distinction between uncertainty and risk is formalized by assuming agents have incomplete preferences over state‐contingent consumption bundles, as in Bewley (1986). Without completeness, individual decision making depends on a set of probability distributions over the state space. A bundle is preferred to another if and only if it has larger expected utility for all probabilities in this set. When preferences are complete this set is a singleton, and the model reduces to standard expected utility. In this setting, we characterize Pareto optima and equilibria, and show that the presence of uncertainty generates robust indeterminacies in equilibrium prices and allocations for any specification of initial endowments. We derive comparative statics results linking the degree of uncertainty with changes in equilibria. Despite the presence of robust indeterminacies, we show that equilibrium prices and allocations vary continuously with underlying fundamentals. Equilibria in a standard risk economy are thus robust to adding small degrees of uncertainty. Finally, we give conditions under which some assets are not traded due to uncertainty aversion. 相似文献
65.
Rejection sampling is a well-known method to generate random samples from arbitrary target probability distributions. It demands
the design of a suitable proposal probability density function (pdf) from which candidate samples can be drawn. These samples
are either accepted or rejected depending on a test involving the ratio of the target and proposal densities. The adaptive
rejection sampling method is an efficient algorithm to sample from a log-concave target density, that attains high acceptance
rates by improving the proposal density whenever a sample is rejected. In this paper we introduce a generalized adaptive rejection
sampling procedure that can be applied with a broad class of target probability distributions, possibly non-log-concave and
exhibiting multiple modes. The proposed technique yields a sequence of proposal densities that converge toward the target
pdf, thus achieving very high acceptance rates. We provide a simple numerical example to illustrate the basic use of the proposed
technique, together with a more elaborate positioning application using real data. 相似文献
66.
Luca Stella 《Review of Economics of the Household》2017,15(2):497-525
This paper uses retrospective micro data from eleven European countries to investigate the role of paternal retirement in explaining children’s decisions to leave the parental home. To assess causality, I use a bivariate discrete-time hazard model with shared frailty and exploit over time and cross-country variation in early retirement legislation. Overall, the results indicate a positive and significant influence of paternal retirement on the probability of first nest-leaving of children residing in Southern European countries, for both sons and daughters. Focusing on Southern Europe, I find that the increase in children’s nest-leaving around the time of paternal retirement does not appear to be justified by changes in parental resources. Rather, channels involving the supply of informal child care provided by grandparents or the quality of the home should be the focus of study. 相似文献
67.
68.
Luca Fazi Sara Zaniboni Yolanda Estreder Donald Truxillo Franco Fraccaroli 《Journal of workplace behavioral health》2019,34(2):77-95
Despite the amount of research on the link between work social characteristics and job attitudes, there is a lack of work on moderators of this relationship. In the present study, we examine the role of age as a moderating effect of this relationship using life-span development theory. The aim of this paper is to study the moderator effect of age in the relationship between two work social characteristics (interaction outside the organization and interdependence) and job attitudes (i.e., general job satisfaction and work engagement). Participants were 258 workers from private organizations. Data were collected at two time points (2 to 4 weeks between T1 and T2). Results showed that the relationship between interdependence and work engagement was stronger for older workers than for younger workers. In addition, the relationship between interaction outside the organization and general job satisfaction was stronger for younger than for older workers. Because increased engagement and satisfaction in an age-diverse workforce is important, organizations may benefit by challenging older workers with interdependent tasks, and younger workers with interaction with stakeholders outside the organization. 相似文献
69.
The outbreak of the pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 (swine flu) between March and April 2009 challenged the health services around the world. Indeed, misconceptions and worries have led the public to refuse to comply with precautionary measures. Moreover, there have been limited efforts to develop models incorporating cognitive, social‐contextual, and affective factors as predictors of compliance with recommended behaviors. The aim of this study was to apply a social‐cognitive model of risk perception and individual response to pandemic influenza H1N1 in a representative sample of Italian population. A sample of 1,010 Italians of at least 18 years of age took part in a telephone survey. The survey included measures of perceived preparedness of institutions, family members and friends’ levels of worry, exposure to media campaigns (social‐contextual factors), perceived coping efficacy, likelihood of infection, perceived seriousness, personal impact, and severity of illness (cognitive evaluations), affective response and compliance with recommended behaviors. Results demonstrated that affective response fully mediated the relationship between cognitive evaluations and social‐contextual factors (with the exception of exposure to media campaigns) and compliance with recommended behaviors. Perceived coping efficacy and preparedness of institutions were not related to compliance with recommended behaviors. 相似文献
70.