Sweden faces zero population growth

In this discussion of Sweden as it approaches zero population growth, focus is on the following: population growth in perspective, fertility trends (childbearing concentrated and cohort versus period fertility), marital status (non-marital cohabitation, out-of-wedlock births, and divorce), women's changing status (increasing education and increasing employment), constraints and supports for women's dual role (family allowances and housing), birth control (contraceptive methods and practice and abortion), mortality trends, changing age structure and the elderly (average population age and proportion of elderly and cost of elderly support), international migration (from emigration to immigration and demographic impact of immigration), immigration policy, recent population debate (immigration issues and facing zero population growth). Since 1900 the primary features of Sweden's demographic history are a continuing decline in the birth rate to very low levels -- relieved by some upward movement in the 1940s and 1960s -- and a marked shift in the migration balance from emigration to immigration. It is almost entirely because of immigration that Sweden's population growth rate has not yet turned negative. If Swedish women were to continue to bear children at the rate that all women in the reproductive ages actually did in 1978, each women would end up with an average well below the level necessary to exactly replace each adult in the population leaving migration out, an annual total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman would have to be sustained for births and deaths to be in balance under the low mortality conditions prevaling in Sweden.     

Mathematical investigations of the escape from the Malthusian trap

"We present a simulation model that synthesizes Malthusian and Boserupian notions of the way population growth and economic development were intertwined. The non-linear stochastic model consists of a system of equations whose dynamics culminate in an industrial revolution after hundreds of iterations. The Industrial Revolution [in Europe] can thus be conceptualized as a permanent 'escape' from the Malthusian trap that occurs once the economy is capable of permanently sustaining an ever growing population. We investigate the conditions for such an escape and their sensitivity to the parameters of the model....Our results show that the likelihood of an escape is sensitive to the savings rate and to the output elasticities of the two sectors of the economy. When not in a subsistence crisis, the chances that an escape will occur increase for larger values of the ratio of the savings rate to the growth rate of the population. The chances of an escape also increase substantially for larger values of the output elasticities of labor." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

What is natural fertility? The modelling of a concept

The value and importance of the concept of natural fertility have been widely debated since Henry's work in the late 1950s. Whereas Henry regarded natural fertility largely as a useful concept for model building, Coale-Trussell demonstrated that this concept could also be used to analyze patterns of age-specific fertility. The set of age-specific marital fertility schedules assembled by Henry and then used by Coale and Trussell involved largely small populations drawn from disparate sources. Nonetheless, from this diverse and fragmentary data, Henry was able to construct a standard of natural fertility which, in the operational form developed by Coale-Trussell, has proved remarkably general in its application and utility. This in turn suggests that the physiological forces shaping fertility are exceedingly strong, especially the incidence of physiological sterility. There appears to be no single universal pattern of natural fertility. Rather, there is a set of closely related age profiles, the exact shape of which is determined by specific behavioral and social factors that influence childbearing. The increase in physiological sterility with age serves to give an upper limit to fertility at each age, while other factors determine how close a given population comes to that maximum. Although no society has ever demonstrated Henry's ideal notion of a purely physiological fertility pattern, the effect of the intervening factors is often weak. In terms of the Coale-Trussell model, maximum likelihood estimation offers the most informative method of implementation and a time series for 1 population is more readily interpretable than a cross-section comparing several populations.     

Prospective study of birth interval dynamics in rural Bangladesh

Abstract A group of 209 married, fecund women in rural Bangladesh were studied prospectively for 24 months from 1969 to 1971 to define some of the biological and sociological factors relating to fertility performance. These women were selected from a larger study population of 112,000 that had been followed with a daily house-to-house vital registration programme since 1966. The selected women were interviewed bi-weekly and were asked questions about menstruation, pregnancy, lactation, husband's occupational absences, and monthly urine tests for pregnancy were taken. The results for 193 non-contracepting women revealed that the seasonal pattern of births previously observed in this population could be associated with a corresponding seasonal pattern of conceptions and that this was due to a seasonal trend in fecundability. The highest conception rates were in the coolest months of the year. Post-partum lactational amenorrhoea was very prolonged, averaging 17 months for women with a surviving child. The appearance of the first post-partum menstrual flow (onset of ovulation) also had a seasonal trend which could not be adequately explained. The median waiting time to conception, once menstruation had resumed was eight months. This interval was influenced by seasonal fluctuations, as well as by the age of women and by husbands' absences. The foetal wastage rate was 15·0 per 100 conceptions, with 62 per cent of the foetal losses occurring during the second month of gestation. Overall, the average birth interval was 33 months, with the prolonged lactational amenorrhoea accounting for almost 45 per cent of this interval. From the Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland 21205.     

Whites who say they'd flee: who are they,and why would they leave?

Questions have been raised about whether white flight--one factor contributing to U.S. residential segregation--is driven by racial, race-associated, or neutral ethnocentric concerns. I use closed- and open-ended survey data from the Multi-City Study of Urban Inequality to explore who says they would leave and their reasons for doing so. Thirty-eight percent of white respondents said they would leave one of the integrated neighborhoods, with Detroiters and those endorsing negative racial stereotypes especially likely to do so. When asked why they might leave, whites focused on the negative features of integrated neighborhoods. Expressions of racial prejudice were also common, but neutral ethnocentrism rare. The results of an experiment asking about integration with Asians and Latinos are also discussed.     

Health profiles and profile-specific health expectancies of older women and men: The Netherlands

This study focuses on gender differences in health profiles, and examines which health profiles drive gender differences in remaining life expectancy in women and men aged 65 and over in The Netherlands. Data from the first two cycles of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (n = 2,141 and 1,659, respectively) were used to calculate health profiles for individuals of 65-85 years. For both women and men, six profiles were found: I. cancer; II. "other" chronic diseases; III. cognitive impairment; IV. frailty or multimorbidity; V. cardiovascular diseases; and VI. good health. The further characterization of these types showed some gender differences. Remaining life expectancy for women was greater than for men in each health profile. A decomposition into health expectancies showed that both women and men could expect to live about 5 years in good health from age 66. The greatest gender differences in years spent with health problems were found for profile IV and for profile III. Their greater number of years spent in these health states have direct consequences for the type and cost of care women need.     

Population policies in socialist countries of Europe

Abstract The emergence, in the mid-sixties, of policies aimed at counteracting rapid fertility decline in some socialist countries of Europe is discussed in the paper. Following a summary of recent population trends and policies in nine European socialist countries, and brief comments on ideological and theoretical considerations, factors relevant to policy decision are discussed. Population policies aiming at encouraging fertility exist in five countries, viz. German Demographic Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Czechoslovakia. Recent developments appear to include attempts to stimulate third births with measures aiming to improve economic conditions of large families, the status of women, education and restriction of induced abortion.     

Eating Disorders Among a Community-based Sample of Chilean Female Adolescents

The purpose of this study was to explore the prevalence and correlates of eating disorders among a community-based sample of female Chilean adolescents. Data were collected through structured interviews with 420 female adolescents residing in Santiago, Chile. Approximately 4% of the sample reported ever being diagnosed with an eating disorder. Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that those with higher symptoms of anxiety and who had tried cigarettes were significantly more likely to have been diagnosed with an eating disorder. Findings indicate that Chilean female adolescents are at risk of eating disorders and that eating disorders, albeit maladaptive, may be a means to cope with negative affect, specifically anxiety.