Conquering the minds, conquering Iraq: The social production of misinformation in the United States - a case study

In the lead-up to the Iraq War, the Bush administration rallied the American public for war via claims that they held unassailable evidence that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction and through the insinuation that links existed between Iraq and al Qaeda, and Iraq and the 11 September 2001 attacks. Despite the introduction of compelling evidence that these claims were false, more than 18 months after the official end of the war half of the American population continued to believe that either weapons of mass destruction had been found or that Iraq possessed a developed program for creating them. The prevalence of these misperceptions suggests important questions: How and why could such a significant percentage of the population remain so misinformed? What was the social process leading to the widespread adoption of misinformation? And what were the political effects of these misperceptions? This article proposes an analytical model that outlines both the production of these misperceptions and their political ramifications. It argues that the misperceptions about the Iraq war were socially produced via a complex interaction between a variety of factors including: the general climate of fear in America in the post-9/11 era, Bush administration agenda-setting strategies, and brokering between the political and communication establishments.     

Local labour markets delineation: an approach based on evolutionary algorithms and classification methods

In this paper a methodology for the delineation of local labour markets (LLMs) using evolutionary algorithms is proposed. This procedure, based on that in Flórez-Revuelta et al. [13 F. Flórez-Revuelta, J.M. Casado-Díaz, and L. Martínez-Bernabeu, An evolutionary approach to the delineation of functional areas base on travel-to-work flows, Int. J. Autom. Comput. 5(1) (2008), pp. 10–21. doi: 10.1007/s11633-008-0010-6[Crossref] , [Google Scholar],14 F. Flórez-Revuelta, J.M. Casado-Díaz, L. Martínez-Bernabeu, and R. Gómez-Hernández, A memetic algorithm for the delineation of local labour markets, in Parallel Problem Solving from Nature X, Vol. 5199, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, G. Rudolph, T.H. Jansen, S.M. Lucas, C. Poloni, and N. Beume, eds., Springer, Berlin, 2008, pp. 1011–1020. [Google Scholar]], introduces three modifications. First, initial groups of municipalities with a minimum size requirement are built using the travel time between them. Second, a not fully random initiation algorithm is proposed. And third, as a final stage of the procedure, a contiguity step is implemented. These modifications significantly decrease the computational times of the algorithm (up to a 99%) without any deterioration of the quality of the solutions. The optimization algorithm may give a set of potential solutions with very similar values with respect to the objective function what would lead to different partitions, both in terms of number of markets and their composition. In order to capture their common aspects an algorithm based on a cluster partitioning of k-means type is presented. This stage of the procedure also provides a ranking of LLMs foci useful for planners and administrations in decision-making processes on issues related to labour activities. Finally, to evaluate the performance of the algorithm a toy example with artificial data is analysed. The full methodology is illustrated through a real commuting data set of the region of Aragón (Spain).     

A psychosocial study on crime and gender: Position,role and status of women in a sample of Spanish criminal organizations / Un estudio psicosocial sobre la delincuencia y género. Posición,rol y estatus de la mujer en una muestra española de organizaciones criminales

The purpose of this study was to determine the socio-demographic characteristics of a sample of females (N = 200) who have belonged to organized crime groups (N = 67) that have operated in Spain between 1999 and 2010, along with what their roles and status have been. The information has been mined from police records provided by the Central Operational Unit of the Guardia Civil. The results enable us to conclude that most of the females are adults, and that many of them have family or partner ties to the organizations. Furthermore, they are actively involved in these criminal groups, mainly performing jobs that do not require the use of violence, and they are especially needed for internal security. In terms of status, the majority seem to be at the lowest level of the organizational structure, although we have managed to identify some women who have played leadership roles in criminal organizations.     

Developing the eclectic paradigm as a model of global strategy: An application to the impact of the Sep. 11 terrorist attacks on MNE performance levels

We expand the eclectic paradigm into a model of global strategic management and apply the latter to the analysis of the impact of the Sep. 11th terrorist attacks on the MNEs' performance to investigate the effect of exogenous shocks on the global strategies of firms. First, we integrate MNE resources and capabilities, strategy, and structure with the eclectic paradigm. Then we focus specifically on location attractiveness to examine how MNEs adjust internal factors with the exogenous distortions caused by an extreme environmental shock. We suggest that this adjustment is carried out at four levels: resources and capabilities, strategy, structure, and choice of location which jointly determine MNEs' performance. Although we restrict the application of this model of global strategic management to the post-Sep. 11th, our model may be applied to other extreme events that change, at least partly, the worldwide, or regional, economic order.     

Quick counts from non-selected polling stations

Countless examples of misleading forecasts on behalf of both campaign and exit polls affecting, among others, British, French, and Spanish elections could be found. This has seriously damaged their image. Therefore, procedures should be used that minimize errors, especially on election night when errors are more noticeable, in order to maintain people's trust in surveys. This paper proposes a method to obtain quick and early outcome forecasts on the election night. The idea is to partly sample some (whatever) polling stations and use the consistency that polling stations show between elections to predict the final results. Model accuracy is analysed through simulation using seven different types of samples in four elections. The efficacy of the technique is also tested predicting the 2005 Eusko Legebiltzarra elections from real data. Results confirm that the procedure generates highly reliable and accurate forecasts. Furthermore, compared with the classical quick count strategy, the method is revealed as much more robust and precise.     

Within‐rhythm Class Native Language Discrimination Abilities of Basque‐Spanish Monolingual and Bilingual Infants at 3.5 Months of Age

Language rhythm determines young infants' language discrimination abilities. However, it is unclear whether young bilingual infants exposed to rhythmically similar languages develop sensitivities to cross‐linguistic rhythm cues to discriminate their dual language input. To address this question, 3.5‐month‐old monolingual Basque, monolingual Spanish and bilingual Basque‐Spanish infants' language discrimination abilities (across low‐pass filtered speech samples of Basque and Spanish) have been tested using the visual habituation procedure. Although falling within the same rhythmic class, Basque and Spanish exhibit significant differences in their distributions of vocalic intervals (within‐rhythmic class variation). All infant groups in our study successfully discriminated between the languages, although each group exhibited a different pattern. Monolingual Spanish infants succeeded only when they heard Basque during habituation, suggesting that they were influenced by native language recognition. The bilingual and the Basque monolingual infants showed no such asymmetries and succeeded irrespective of the language of habituation. Additionally, bilingual infants exhibited longer looking times in the test phase as compared with monolinguals, reflecting that bilingual infants attend to their native languages differently than monolinguals. Overall, results suggest that bilingual infants are sensitive to within‐rhythm acoustic regularities of their native language(s) facilitating language discrimination and hence supporting early bilingual acquisition.     

Particle methods for maximum likelihood estimation in latent variable models

Standard methods for maximum likelihood parameter estimation in latent variable models rely on the Expectation-Maximization algorithm and its Monte Carlo variants. Our approach is different and motivated by similar considerations to simulated annealing; that is we build a sequence of artificial distributions whose support concentrates itself on the set of maximum likelihood estimates. We sample from these distributions using a sequential Monte Carlo approach. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for several applications of the proposed approach.     

Semi-parametric Bayesian Analysis of the Proportional Hazard Rate Model An Application to the Effect of Training Programs on Graduate Unemployment

In this paper, we introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian methodology based on the proportional hazard model that assumes that the baseline hazard function is constant over segments but, by contrast to what is usually assumed in the literature, with the periods at which the function changes not being specified in advance. The methodology is applied to explore the impact of Vocational Training courses offered by the University of Zaragoza (Spain) on the duration of the initial periods of unemployment experienced by graduate leavers. The framework is very flexible and allows us, in particular, to capture the presence of seasonality in the job insertion of graduates.     

Laurie Nordic Ski Center

The proprietor of a ski lodge with Nordic ski trails faces increased competition from other private lodges that are subsidized by government agencies and from a non profit ski club, which is also subsidized by use of government owned land for which the ski club pays no rent. The proprietor must decide what she can do to meet this subsidized competition or whether she should sell her business before profitability disappears.