Individual Pension Plans in Spain: How Expected Change in Future Income and Liquidity Constraints Shape the Behavior of Households

Understanding the motives that underlie Spaniards’ retirement saving decisions is important because many, if not most, future retirees will need to rely on personal savings to maintain a decent standard of living. The governor of the Bank of Spain has stated recently that the current public pension system will not guarantee an adequate pension to the citizens, advising to save now for retirement. In this debate on public pensions, and the complementary role that private pensions might play in Spain, this article has shed light on the decision of Spanish households to engage in individual pension plans and it has identified which factors determine the total amount saved in such retirement plans. Using micro data from the Bank of Spain (Survey of Household Finances 2011), the analysis has revealed that the expectations of lower future income, along with preferences for the financial risk and education, exert an important influence on the likelihood of enrolling in a private pension plan. University education minimizes the myopic behavior of households in the sense of making them more forward-looking and cautious in the face of their future well-being. Additionally using Heckman’s methodology to correct for the problem of selection bias, our results have revealed that liquidity constraints affect negatively the total amount of money saved for retirement.     

Estimation of variance in bivariate normal distribution after the preliminary test of homogeneity

A preliminary test estimator of variance in the bivariate normal distribution is proposed after the Pitman–Morgan test of homogeneity of two variances. The bias and mean square error of the estimator are derived. The relative efficiency (RE) of the preliminary test estimator is studied. Computations and 3D graphs of RE for different parameters are analyzed. In order to get the maximum RE, recommendations of the significance level for the preliminary test are given for various sample sizes by using the max–min criterion.     

Removing barriers to technology

Health care executives need to take every step possible to overcome barriers to adoption of new technology by physicians. Through just a few relatively simple and inexpensive strategies, they can enable their physicians to use the clinical information system and bring value to their patients, health system and medical staff.     

On influence diagnostic in univariate elliptical linear regression models

We discuss in this paper the assessment of local influence in univariate elliptical linear regression models. This class includes all symmetric continuous distributions, such as normal, Student-t, Pearson VII, exponential power and logistic, among others. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing the local influence on the parameter estimates and on predictions by considering as influence measures the likelihood displacement and a distance based on the Pearson residual. Two examples with real data are given for illustration.     

A multivariate version of Gini's rank association coefficient

In this paper, we introduce a multivariate generalization of the population version of Gini's rank association coefficient, giving a response to this open question posed in [4]. We also study some properties of this version, present the corresponding results for the sample statistic, and provide several examples.     

A Statistical Framework for Hypothesis Testing in Real Data Comparison Studies

In computational sciences, including computational statistics, machine learning, and bioinformatics, it is often claimed in articles presenting new supervised learning methods that the new method performs better than existing methods on real data, for instance in terms of error rate. However, these claims are often not based on proper statistical tests and, even if such tests are performed, the tested hypothesis is not clearly defined and poor attention is devoted to the Type I and Type II errors. In the present article, we aim to fill this gap by providing a proper statistical framework for hypothesis tests that compare the performances of supervised learning methods based on several real datasets with unknown underlying distributions. After giving a statistical interpretation of ad hoc tests commonly performed by computational researchers, we devote special attention to power issues and outline a simple method of determining the number of datasets to be included in a comparison study to reach an adequate power. These methods are illustrated through three comparison studies from the literature and an exemplary benchmarking study using gene expression microarray data. All our results can be reproduced using R codes and datasets available from the companion website http://www.ibe.med.uni-muenchen.de/organisation/mitarbeiter/020_professuren/boulesteix/compstud2013.     

Life Domain Satisfactions as Predictors of Overall Life Satisfaction Among Workers: Evidence from Chile

This article examines the subjective antecedents of life satisfaction of workers. Adopting a ‘bottom-up’ perspective, we assessed the unique influence that satisfaction with multiple life domains have on evaluative judgments of overall life satisfaction. Based on a nationwide sample of 530 Chilean workers, we simultaneously tested the effects of seven life domain satisfactions that have been consistently included in extant models of life satisfaction and subjective well-being. These were satisfaction with health, financial situation, social relationships, one’s self-worth, leisure-time, family, and work. Having controlled for age and gender, results showed that satisfaction with one’s financial situation was the dominant predictor of overall life satisfaction of workers, with a weight of .36. Satisfaction with family, work, and health had effects of .25, .14, and .14, respectively. Interestingly, satisfaction with one’s self-worth, leisure-time, and social relationships did not have statistically significant effects on life satisfaction, although the first two showed t values near the critical value.     

Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis

In this paper we consider testing that an economic time series follows a martingale difference process. The martingale difference hypothesis has typically been tested using information contained in the second moments of a process, that is, using test statistics based on the sample autocovariances or periodograms. Tests based on these statistics are inconsistent since they cannot detect nonlinear alternatives. In this paper we consider tests that detect linear and nonlinear alternatives. Given that the asymptotic distributions of the considered tests statistics depend on the data generating process, we propose to implement the tests using a modified wild bootstrap procedure. The paper theoretically justifies the proposed tests and examines their finite sample behavior by means of Monte Carlo experiments.     

Methodology for the Calculation of Annualized Incremental Risks in Systems of Dams

In the past few years, the field of dam safety has approached risk informed methodologies throughout the world and several methodologies and programs are appearing to aid in the systematization of the calculations. The most common way of implementing these calculations is through the use of event trees, computing event probabilities, and incremental consequences. This methodology is flexible enough for several situations, but its generalization to the case of systems of several dams is complex and its implementation in a completely general calculation methodology presents some problems. Retaining the event tree framework, a new methodology is proposed to calculate incremental risks. The main advantage of this proposed methodology is the ease with which it can be applied to systems of several dams: with a single risk model that describes the complete system and with a single calculation the incremental risks of the system can be obtained, being able to allocate the risk of each dam and of each failure mode. The article shows how both methodologies are equivalent and also applies them to a case study.