Environmental Risk Exposure,Risk Perception,Political Ideology and Support for Climate Policy

The degree to which risk perceptions are socially constructed versus the result of actual exposure to risk is highly contested; how risk exposure and risk perception influence policy attitudes is also poorly understood. We examine how personal exposure to risk factors impacts risk perceptions and policy support related to air pollution and climate change. Our selection of risk exposure variables is informed by the “mental models” literature, and we employ an array of variables to capture subjective risk perceptions using novel survey data. We find that exposure to risk does little to predict risk perception and has a small influence on policy support. Overall, our findings lend support to a constructionist understanding of risk perception and support for policies related to environmental risks.     

Capital Structure of Nongovernmental Development Organizations

In the first international study of this kind, we analyze the capital structure of 364 nongovernmental development organizations (NGDOs) from three different countries: Belgium, Spain, and the United Kingdom. We observe lower debt ratio values in the United Kingdom, and significant differences between countries were found by testing an econometric model with the five classical determinants of leverage, considering total debt and both long‐ and short‐term debt. We find support for the pecking order theory, and we broadly discuss some possible reasons for the obtained differences.     

Group betweenness and co-betweenness: Inter-related notions of coalition centrality

Vertex betweenness centrality is a metric that seeks to quantify a sense of the importance of a vertex in a network in terms of its ‘control’ on the flow of information along geodesic paths throughout the network. Two natural ways to extend vertex betweenness centrality to sets of vertices are (i) in terms of geodesic paths that pass through at least one of the vertices in the set, and (ii) in terms of geodesic paths that pass through all vertices in the set. The former was introduced by Everett and Borgatti [Everett, M., Borgatti, S., 1999. The centrality of groups and classes. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 23 (3), 181–201], and called group betweenness centrality. The latter, which we call co-betweenness centrality here, has not been considered formally in the literature until now, to the best of our knowledge. In this paper, we show that these two notions of centrality are in fact intimately related and, furthermore, that this relationship may be exploited to obtain deeper insight into both. In particular, we provide an expansion for group betweenness in terms of increasingly higher orders of co-betweenness, in a manner analogous to the Taylor series expansion of a mathematical function in calculus. We then demonstrate the utility of this expansion by using it to construct analytic lower and upper bounds for group betweenness that involve only simple combinations of (i) the betweenness of individual vertices in the group, and (ii) the co-betweenness of pairs of these vertices. Accordingly, we argue that the latter quantity, i.e., pairwise co-betweenness, is itself a fundamental quantity of some independent interest, and we present a computationally efficient algorithm for its calculation, which extends the algorithm of Brandes [Brandes, U., 2001. A faster algorithm for betweenness centrality. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 25, 163] in a natural manner. Applications are provided throughout, using a handful of different communication networks, which serve to illustrate the way in which our mathematical contributions allow for insight to be gained into the interaction of network structure, coalitions, and information flow in social networks.     

Keeping Surveys Valid,Reliable, and Useful: A Tutorial

This tutorial focuses on how to produce reliable and generalizable data from random‐digit‐dialing (RDD) landline and cell phone surveys. The article notes that RDD response rates have declined and explores the impact of this pronounced decline. The tutorial addresses order, response mode, and many other biases, sample size, cooperation and response rates, weighting, and hybrid designs‐all using examples from risk analysis to illustrate the key points. The article ends with a brief review of the advantages and disadvantages of major Internet and paper surveys tools, and how these can be molded and sometimes combined in repeated, longitudinal, and other designs to answer questions about risk preferences and perceptions.     

In and Out of the Ethnic Economy: A Longitudinal Analysis of Ethnic Networks and Pathways to Economic Success across Immigrant Categories1

The economic benefits to immigrants of taking jobs in ethnic workplaces, relative to the open economy, are heavily debated. We examine longitudinally differences across immigrant categories in how the choice of ethnic or non‐ethnic workplace influences the ethnic composition of social networks and how these factors impact immigrants’ economic success. Using the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Canada, with data 6 months, 2 years, and 4 years after arrival, we find support for both sides of the ethnic economy debate when it is qualified by immigrant category. While economic immigrants benefit from non‐ethnic workplaces, family immigrants face economic penalties in the open economy and do better in ethnic workplaces. We argue that policies sorting immigrants into visa categories do much of the work of leading them into segmented paths of incorporation.     

Assessing and Improving the Performance of Nearly Efficient Unit Root Tests in Small Samples

Abstract

The development of unit root tests continues unabated, with many recent contributions using techniques such as generalized least squares (GLS) detrending and recursive detrending to improve the power of the test. In this article, the relation between the seemingly disparate tests is demonstrated by algebraically nesting all of them as ratios of quadratic forms in normal variables. By doing so, and using the exact sampling distribution of the ratio, it is straightforward to compute, examine, and compare the test' critical values and power functions. It is shown that use of GLS detrending parameters other than those recommended in the literature can lead to substantial power improvements. The open and important question regarding the nature of the first observation is addressed. Tests with high power are proposed irrespective of the distribution of the initial observation, which should be of great use in practical applications.     

The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it

We explore sustainable paths out of a debt trap with a highly stylized two-sector differential equations model for the stocks of money in Government and Society. The model fits the data for the U.S. between 1981 and 2012 with a coefficient of correlation of 0.996. The solutions provide detailed “escape conditions” from the debt trap. A primary surplus is required. Then a government can escape its debt trap either through sustained annual monetary outflows from society to the government (taxation) but with a low initial growth rate, or through annual monetary inflows into both sectors (stimulus) with higher initial growth rate. We illustrate the use of our model with simulations which show how five indebted countries can escape their debt trap in 30 (or 70) years.     

Development of a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat in Belgium

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) according to the Codex Alimentarius Principles is conducted to evaluate the risk of human salmonellosis through household consumption of fresh minced pork meat in Belgium. The quantitative exposure assessment is carried out by building a modular risk model, called the METZOON-model, which covers the pork production from farm to fork. In the METZOON-model, the food production pathway is split up in six consecutive modules: (1) primary production, (2) transport and lairage, (3) slaughterhouse, (4) postprocessing, (5) distribution and storage, and (6) preparation and consumption. All the modules are developed to resemble as closely as possible the Belgian situation, making use of the available national data. Several statistical refinements and improved modeling techniques are proposed. The model produces highly realistic results. The baseline predicted number of annual salmonellosis cases is 20,513 ( SD 9061.45). The risk is estimated higher for the susceptible population (estimate  4.713 × 10⁻⁵; SD 1.466 × 10⁻⁵  ) compared to the normal population  (estimate 7.704 × 10⁻⁶; SD 5.414 × 10⁻⁶)  and is mainly due to undercooking and to a smaller extent to cross-contamination in the kitchen via cook's hands.