Teaching Decision Theory Proof Strategies Using a Crowdsourcing Problem

Teaching how to derive minimax decision rules can be challenging because of the lack of examples that are simple enough to be used in the classroom. Motivated by this challenge, we provide a new example that illustrates the use of standard techniques in the derivation of optimal decision rules under the Bayes and minimax approaches. We discuss how to predict the value of an unknown quantity, θ ∈ {0, 1}, given the opinions of n experts. An important example of such crowdsourcing problem occurs in modern cosmology, where θ indicates whether a given galaxy is merging or not, and Y₁, …, Y_n are the opinions from n astronomers regarding θ. We use the obtained prediction rules to discuss advantages and disadvantages of the Bayes and minimax approaches to decision theory. The material presented here is intended to be taught to first-year graduate students.     

Comparing Check-All and Forced-Choice Question Formats in Web Surveys

For survey researchers, it is common practice to use the check-allquestion format in Web and mail surveys but to convert to theforced-choice question format in telephone surveys. The assumptionunderlying this practice is that respondents will answer thetwo formats similarly. In this research note we report resultsfrom 16 experimental comparisons in two Web surveys and a papersurvey conducted in 2002 and 2003 that test whether the check-alland forced-choice formats produce similar results. In all 16comparisons, we find that the two question formats do not performsimilarly; respondents endorse more options and take longerto answer in the forced-choice format than in the check-allformat. These findings suggest that the forced-choice questionformat encourages deeper processing of response options and,as such, is preferable to the check-all format, which may encouragea weak satisficing response strategy. Additional analyses showthat neither acquiescence bias nor item nonresponse seem topose substantial problems for use of the forced-choice questionformat in Web surveys.     

Attachments to Family and Community and the Young Adult Transition of Rural Youth

Rural youth in economically troubled regions develop plans for their future in a context in which opportunities for educational and occupational success generally lie elsewhere, prompting the need to migrate. This study investigates the links between rural adolescents' residential preferences and their plans for the future, perceptions of local opportunity, and ties to family and community. We examine whether residential preferences shape the pathways to adulthood through decisions about where to live as well as educational and occupational attainments. Residential preferences are indeed related to adolescents' academic achievements and future educational plans, their relationships with parents, and perceptions of local job opportunities, but they are not associated with family socioeconomic background and social ties to the community. For the most part, residential preferences are linked to where young people live and pursue higher education in the years after high school, but generally not to their socioeconomic attainment.     

Negotiating Violence Prevention

Evaluation research typically treats standards of violence prevention programs, like other curricula, as unquestioned values of a good society, while identifying youth as the problem to be solved. This article explains how the evaluative gaze can, in contrast, be critically fixed on the interpretations of various stake holders in the violence prevention enterprise, including curriculum authors, teachers, and youth, whose social values are often under-represented. In the context of a year-long literacy-based violence prevention curriculum focusing on racial and ethnic discrimination in 3^rd and 5^th grade urban classrooms, 5 teachers, their classes, and 36 individual students from these classes expressed contradictory and conforming values, suggesting to us the need to invite negotiation of social values as part of democratic education.     

Understanding Condom Use Decision Making Among Homeless Youth Using Event-Level Data

This is one of the first qualitative event-based studies to understand the various mechanisms through which multiple factors influence condom use decision making among homeless youth. Event-level interviews that explore characteristics of the environment surrounding sexual events were conducted with 29 youth who were asked to describe two recent sexual encounters. In thematic analyses of data across events, reasons that youth gave for engaging in unprotected sex included the expectation of having sex and use of alternative methods of protection against pregnancy. Other nonevent factors that influenced condom use decision making were related to attributes of the partnership (e.g., testing, trust and love, and assessments of risk) and attributes of the youth (e.g., perceptions of diseases, concerns over pregnancy, and discomfort using condoms). Additional event analyses conducted within the same individuals found that decision making was influenced by multiple interacting factors, with different pathways operating for event and nonevent factors. Future interventions should consider taking a multilevel and individualized approach that focuses on event-based determinants of risky sex in this population.     

Letter to the Editor: A reply to Zipp and Fenwick

March 2007 In the Fall 2006 issue of Public Opinion Quarterly, John F.Zipp and Rudy Fenwick published "Is the Academy a Liberal Hegemony?,"an article openly framed as a reaction to "right-wing activistsand scholars" (304). The scholarship they cite is principallyours (Klein and Stern 2005a; Klein and Western 2005). They arriveat findings about ideological ratios said to be "far lower thanthe ratios found by Klein ..." (309). Unfortunately, ZF misrepresent us. We wrote and submitted afull reply, but the Editor Peter Miller asked us to keep to