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941.
Daniel R. Cavagnaro Gabriel J. Aranovich Samuel M. McClure Mark A. Pitt Jay I. Myung 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2016,52(3):233-254
The tendency to discount the value of future rewards has become one of the best-studied constructs in the behavioral sciences. Although hyperbolic discounting remains the dominant quantitative characterization of this phenomenon, a variety of models have been proposed and consensus around the one that most accurately describes behavior has been elusive. To help bring some clarity to this issue, we propose an Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO) method for fitting and comparing models of temporal discounting. We then conduct an ADO experiment aimed at discriminating among six popular models of temporal discounting. Rather than supporting a single underlying model, our results show that each model is inadequate in some way to describe the full range of behavior exhibited across subjects. The precision of results provided by ADO further identify specific properties of models, such as accommodating both increasing and decreasing impatience, that are mandatory to describe temporal discounting broadly. 相似文献
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This study combines two topics of contemporary salience for public administration: social enterprise and governance networks. While operating at different levels, both are institutions which attempt to draw together the three pillars of state, market, and civil society. Nevertheless, the respective literatures focus on particular aspects of the three pillars. We connect the two concepts and suggest that some social enterprises can act as the institutional glue of networks due to their ability to benefit organizations in each of the three sectors. This requires social enterprises to have the managerial capacity to diffuse social know-how, and is facilitated by the trust of other organizations and a supportive policy framework. The links are explicated at the conceptual level before providing evidence from South Korea and the UK. Finally, research propositions are offered, which suggest new avenues for future research. 相似文献
945.
Is Probability the Only Coherent Approach to Uncertainty? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Mark Colyvan 《Risk analysis》2008,28(3):645-652
In this article, I discuss an argument that purports to prove that probability theory is the only sensible means of dealing with uncertainty. I show that this argument can succeed only if some rather controversial assumptions about the nature of uncertainty are accepted. I discuss these assumptions and provide reasons for rejecting them. I also present examples of what I take to be non-probabilistic uncertainty. 相似文献
946.
This paper presents a review of recent survey‐based research looking at the contribution of teamwork to organizational performance. In particular, it focuses on empirical studies in which both teamwork and performance are directly measured in a quantitative way. The paper begins by identifying four interrelated dimensions of teamwork effectiveness: attitudinal, behavioural, operational and financial. The first two represent transmission mechanisms by which organizational performance can be improved. The latter two provide direct measures of organizational outcomes. The review shows that teamworking has a positive impact on all four dimensions of performance. It also reveals that, when teamwork is combined with structural change, performance can be further enhanced. The paper concludes by highlighting some important research gaps that future studies could address. 相似文献
947.
AbstractWe propose a difference-in-differences approach for disentangling a total treatment effect within specific subpopulations into a direct effect and an indirect effect operating through a binary mediating variable. Random treatment assignment along with specific common trend and effect homogeneity assumptions identify the direct effects on the always and never takers, whose mediator is not affected by the treatment, as well as the direct and indirect effects on the compliers, whose mediator reacts to the treatment. In our empirical application, we analyze the impact of the Vietnam draft lottery on political preferences. The results suggest that a high draft risk due to the draft lottery outcome leads to an increase in mild preferences for the Republican Party, but has no effect on strong preferences for either party or on specific political attitudes. The increase in Republican support is mostly driven by the direct effect not operating through the mediator that is military service. 相似文献
948.
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods explicitly defined on the manifold of probability distributions have recently been established. These methods are constructed from diffusions across the manifold and the solution of the equations describing geodesic flows in the Hamilton–Jacobi representation. This paper takes the differential geometric basis of Markov chain Monte Carlo further by considering methods to simulate from probability distributions that themselves are defined on a manifold, with common examples being classes of distributions describing directional statistics. Proposal mechanisms are developed based on the geodesic flows over the manifolds of support for the distributions, and illustrative examples are provided for the hypersphere and Stiefel manifold of orthonormal matrices. 相似文献
949.
The analysis of categorical response data through the multinomial model is very frequent in many statistical, econometric, and biometric applications. However, one of the main problems is the precise estimation of the model parameters when the number of observations is very low. We propose a new Bayesian estimation approach where the prior distribution is constructed through the transformation of the multivariate beta of Olkin and Liu (2003). Moreover, the application of the zero-variance principle allows us to estimate moments in Monte Carlo simulations with a dramatic reduction of their variances. We show the advantages of our approach through applications to some toy examples, where we get efficient parameter estimates. 相似文献
950.
Governments sometimes characterize torture as an indispensable interrogation tool for gathering strategic intelligence. In this article, we review the relevant social scientific research on the effectiveness, impact, and causes of torture. First, we summarize research on false confessions and examine the relevance of that research for torture-based interrogations. Next, we review research on the mental health consequences of torture for survivors and perpetrators. Finally, we explore the social-psychological conditions that promote acts of cruelty (such as those seen at Abu Ghraib) and examine the arguments typically offered to justify the use of torture. We argue that any hypothesized benefits from the use of torture must be weighed against the substantial proven costs of torture. These costs include the unreliable information extracted through interrogations using torture, the mental and emotional toll on victims and torturers, loss of international stature and credibility, and the risk of retaliation against soldiers and civilians. 相似文献