Pandemic Recovery Analysis Using the Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model

Economists have long conceptualized and modeled the inherent interdependent relationships among different sectors of the economy. This concept paved the way for input-output modeling, a methodology that accounts for sector interdependencies governing the magnitude and extent of ripple effects due to changes in the economic structure of a region or nation. Recent extensions to input-output modeling have enhanced the model's capabilities to account for the impact of an economic perturbation; two such examples are the inoperability input-output model^{( 1 , 2 )} and the dynamic inoperability input-output model (DIIM).^{( 3 )} These models introduced sector inoperability, or the inability to satisfy as-planned production levels, into input-output modeling. While these models provide insights for understanding the impacts of inoperability, there are several aspects of the current formulation that do not account for complexities associated with certain disasters, such as a pandemic. This article proposes further enhancements to the DIIM to account for economic productivity losses resulting primarily from workforce disruptions. A pandemic is a unique disaster because the majority of its direct impacts are workforce related. The article develops a modeling framework to account for workforce inoperability and recovery factors. The proposed workforce-explicit enhancements to the DIIM are demonstrated in a case study to simulate a pandemic scenario in the Commonwealth of Virginia.     

Effect of Inventory Information Discrepancy in a Drop‐Shipping Supply Chain

This article investigates the impact of information discrepancy between a drop‐shipper and an online retailer on the drop‐shipping supply chain performance. The inventory information misalignment between them contributes to the failure of order fulfillment and demand satisfaction, and hence the associated penalties are incurred. In this article, we first analyze the penalties of ignoring such information discrepancy on both the drop‐shipper and the online retailer. We then assess the impact of information discrepancy on both parties when the drop‐shipper understands the existence of the information discrepancy but is not able to eliminate the errors. The numerical experiments indicate that both parties can have significant amount of the percentage cost reductions if the information discrepancy can be eliminated, and the potential savings are substantial especially when the errors have large variability. Furthermore, we observe that the online retailer is more vulnerable to information discrepancy than the drop‐shipper, and the drop‐shipper is likely to suffer from the online retailer's underestimation of the physical inventory level more than the problem of its overestimation. Moreover, even if eliminating errors is not possible, both parties could still benefit from taking the possibility of errors into consideration in decision making.     

Coherence principles in interval‐based dose finding

This paper studies the notion of coherence in interval‐based dose‐finding methods. An incoherent decision is either (a) a recommendation to escalate the dose following an observed dose‐limiting toxicity or (b) a recommendation to deescalate the dose following a non–dose‐limiting toxicity. In a simulated example, we illustrate that the Bayesian optimal interval method and the Keyboard method are not coherent. We generated dose‐limiting toxicity outcomes under an assumed set of true probabilities for a trial of n=36 patients in cohorts of size 1, and we counted the number of incoherent dosing decisions that were made throughout this simulated trial. Each of the methods studied resulted in 13/36 (36%) incoherent decisions in the simulated trial. Additionally, for two different target dose‐limiting toxicity rates, 20% and 30%, and a sample size of n=30 patients, we randomly generated 100 dose‐toxicity curves and tabulated the number of incoherent decisions made by each method in 1000 simulated trials under each curve. For each method studied, the probability of incurring at least one incoherent decision during the conduct of a single trial is greater than 75%. Coherency is an important principle in the conduct of dose‐finding trials. Interval‐based methods violate this principle for cohorts of size 1 and require additional modifications to overcome this shortcoming. Researchers need to take a closer look at the dose assignment behavior of interval‐based methods when using them to plan dose‐finding studies.     

Passing Encounters East and West: Comparing Japanese and American Pedestrian Interactions

This study examined the microinteractions of pedestrians in Japan and in the United States as they walked past a confederate. Specifically, the effects of culture, condition (avoid, look-only, and look plus smile) and sex of confederate on glances, smiles, nods, and greetings by passing pedestrians were examined in a field study on over 1000 participants. The hypotheses of (1) lower responsiveness in Japanese pedestrians than in American pedestrians and (2) increased responsiveness as a function of condition were supported in a series of log-linear analyses of pedestrian glances, smiles, nods, and greetings. Both of these main effects were, however, qualified by Culture X Condition interactions on smiles, nods, and greetings, with the large condition effects present in the American pedestrians, but absent in the Japanese pedestrians. The results are discussed in terms of the functions of glances, smiles, nods, and greetings in these brief encounters and how differing cultural norms affect Japanese and American responsiveness. Finally, the limitations of this study and the broader utility of this research paradigm are discussed.

Operationalizing environmental indicators for physical activity in older adults

This qualitative study describes environmental supports and barriers to physical activity in an older adult sample drawn from low- and high-walkable neighborhoods. Thirty-seven individuals age 55 and over were recruited and answered open-ended survey questions, with a subsample invited back to partake in a semistructured interview. Content analysis identified categories and themes linking perceptions of neighborhood-environment characteristics to activity. Emerging categories and themes did not differ across neighborhood walkability, so results are presented for both groups combined. Infrastructure was the most common category identified to encourage activity, specifically, well-maintained sidewalks, bike paths or lanes, and traffic control. Other categories of land use, landscape, and aesthetics were reported. Poorly maintained or missing sidewalks, crosswalks, bike paths or lanes, and traffic safety were categories that discouraged activity. In conclusion, the information obtained is helpful in solidifying which environmental characteristics are important to measure as they relate to activity behavior in an older adult population.     

Urinary Excretion of Chromium Following Ingestion of Chromite-Ore Processing Residues in Humans: Implications for Biomonitoring

Biomonitoring programs for urinary chromium (Cr) typically attempt to evaluate occupational exposure via the inhalation route. This study investigated whether Cr can be detected in the urine of people following the ingestion of soils that contain relatively high concentrations of chromium in chromite ore processing residue (COPR). To evaluate the reasonableness of using urinary monitoring to assess environmental exposure, six volunteers ingested 400 mg of soil/day (low-dose group), two others ingested 2.0 g of soil/day (high-dose group) for 3 consecutive days, and one person ingested a placebo on each of 3 days. The soil and COPR mixture contained concentrations of total chromium (Cr) and hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] of 103 ± 20 and 9.3 ± 3.8 mg/kg, respectively. Therefore, the low-dose group ingested 41 μg Cr/day [including 3.7 μg Cr(VI)] and the high-dose group ingested 206 μg Cr/day [including 18.6 μg Cr(VI)] on each of 3 consecutive days. All urine samples were collected and analyzed individually for total Cr on the day prior to dosing, during the 3 days of dosing, and up to the first void 48 h after the last dose. No significant increases in urinary Cr excretion were found when background excretion data were compared with data following each of the 3 days of dosing or in daily mean urine concentrations of the high- vs the low-dose groups. It appears that Cr present in a soil and COPR mixture at Cr doses up to 200 μg/day is not sufficiently bioavailable for biomonitoring of urine to be informative. These results are consistent with previously published findings suggesting that incidental exposure to dusts and soils containing comparable levels of Cr will not result in increased concentrations of Cr in urine.     

An Application of Markov Chain Analysis to the Game of Squash*

If the score in a squash game is tied late in the game, one player has a choice of how many additional points (from a prespecified set of possibilities) are to be played to determine the winner. This paper constructs a Markov chain model of the situation and solves for the optimal strategy. Expressions for the optimal strategy are obtained with a symbolic algebra computer package. Results are given for both international and American scoring systems. The model and analysis are very suitable for educational purposes. The resulting Markov chain is small enough that it can be easily presented in a classroom setting, yet the model is sufficiently complex that algebraic manipulation is nearly hopeless. The final results illustrate the power of the combination of mathematical and computer modeling applied to a problem of practical interest.     

Temporary Employment Contracts and Household Income

Social Indicators Research - It is widely accepted that temporary jobs tend to be associated with low pay which, in turn, will have negative consequences for household income. Evidence in support...     

Generalized Reflexive Responding and Cross-Modal Tactile Transfer of Stimulus Function in Children with Autism

We sought to evaluate the efficacy of successive matching training for establishing generalized reflexive matching across 4 children with autism. In Experiment 1, differential reinforcement with delay fading was efficacious in establishing “yes” and “no” matching and nonmatching responses in 2 participants when 2 identical or nonidentical picture stimuli were presented. In addition, emergent visual–visual reflexive relational responses were observed using novel picture stimuli in a transfer test phase. In Experiment 2, differential reinforcement alone was efficacious in establishing matching and nonmatching responses in the other 2 participants when 2 identical or nonidentical objects were presented. Transfer to identical objects presented through touch (i.e., tactile discrimination) was additionally observed for both participants. Procedures in the study were adapted from the PEAK Relational Training System to aid in clinical replication, and the translational results have implications for language training with individuals with autism.