Women's Changing Attitudes Toward Divorce, 1974–2002: Evidence for an Educational Crossover

This article examines trends in divorce attitudes of young adult women in the United States by educational attainment from 1974 to 2002. Women with 4‐year college degrees, who previously had the most permissive attitudes toward divorce, have become more restrictive in their attitudes toward divorce than high school graduates and women with some college education, whereas women with no high school diplomas have increasingly permissive attitudes toward divorce. We examine this educational crossover in divorce attitudes in the context of variables correlated with women's educational attainment, including family attitudes and religion, income and occupational prestige, and family structure. We conclude that the educational crossover in divorce attitudes is associated most strongly with work and family structure variables.     

The State of Care Management in Learning Disability and Mental Health Services 12 Years into Community Care

This paper reports on the organization of care management froma longitudinal study of community care for people resettledfrom long-stay learning disability and psychiatric hospitals.The findings from a 12-year follow-up of care management arrangementsin 12 learning disability and eight mental health study siteservices are described. The diversity of care management arrangementsfound at earlier points in the evaluation remained evident.Also, many of the former ‘care in the community’service users were excluded from mainstream care managementarrangements in their localities. The difficulty of developingperson-centred arrangements in learning disability and the lackof integration of the Care Programme Approach and care managementwere evident. The findings and observations are placed in thewider policy and practice context, with suggestions for takingcare management forward nationally and locally.     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

Inequality and Democratic Responsiveness

By allowing voters to choose among candidates with competingpolicy orientations and by providing incentives for incumbentsto shape policy in the direction the public desires, electionsare thought to provide the foundation that links governmentpolicy to the preferences of the governed. In this article Iexamine the extent to which the preference/policy link is biasedtoward the preferences of high-income Americans. Using an originaldata set of almost two thousand survey questions on proposedpolicy changes between 1981 and 2002, I find a moderately strongrelationship between what the public wants and what the governmentdoes, albeit with a strong bias toward the status quo. But Ialso find that when Americans with different income levels differin their policy preferences, actual policy outcomes stronglyreflect the preferences of the most affluent but bear virtuallyno relationship to the preferences of poor or middle-incomeAmericans. The vast discrepancy I find in government responsivenessto citizens with different incomes stands in stark contrastto the ideal of political equality that Americans hold dear.Although perfect political equality is an unrealistic goal,representational biases of this magnitude call into questionthe very democratic character of our society.     

Die Arbeitsgruppe Professionssoziologie und die Randständigkeit der Professionssoziologie im deutschsprachigen Raum

The article analyzes the consequences of the marginal status of the Sociology of Professions in Germany during the last decades on the efforts of the new working group “Sociology of Professions.” This new working group has been established in order to make professions an attractive research topic. First it will be demonstrated that a lack of a solid grounding in the international literature influences the new efforts to publish textbooks. Second it will be shown that there is a missing historical perspective in the old and new sociology of professions in Germany. Finally everything seems to indicate that the new working group is more interested in questions of general sociology and occupational sociology than in questions of a sociology of professions.