An Approach to Vulnerability Analysis of Complex Industrial Systems

The concept of vulnerability of complex industrial systems is defined and discussed in relation to risk and system survivability. The discussion is illustrated by referring to a number of previous industrial accidents. The various risk factors, or threats, influencing an industrial system's vulnerability are classified and discussed. Both internal and external threats are covered. The general scope of vulnerability analysis is compared to traditional risk analysis approaches and main differences are illustrated. A general procedure for vulnerability analysis in two steps, including building of scenarios and preparation of relevant worksheets, is described and discussed.     

Detection and prevalence of abuse of older males: perspectives from family practice

Family doctors' frequent contact with seniors put them in reasonable positions to detect elder abuse and initiate referral to adult protective services. Since doctor reporting is low, however, this paper explores whether the gender of patient and/or doctor impacts on identification of elder mistreatment, or creates differential detection of one gender over the other. Use of the validated Elder Abuse Suspicion Index (EASI), and a structured social work evaluation, is described to provide some gender-based data from Canadian family practice. Specifically, while the prevalence of elder abuse is estimated to range from 12.0% to 13.3%, the specific prevalence was found for females to be 13.6% to 15.2% and for males 9.1% to 9.7%.     

Having one's cake and eating it, too: combining true experiments with regression discontinuity designs

Both true experiments and regression discontinuity (RD) designs produce unbiased estimates of effects. However, true experiments are, of course, often criticized on equity grounds, whereas RD designs entail sacrifices in terms of statistical precision. In this article, a hybrid of true experiments and RD designs is considered. This hybrid entails smaller sacrifices in statistical efficiency than RD designs and also is likely to be judged as being considerably more fair than true experiments and possible even RD designs. Moreover, unlike pure RD designs, the hybrid design considered here can be employed in situations in which the variable on which assignment to treatment condition is based takes on only a discrete set of values.     

Good Boundaries Make Good Neighbors: Boundary Management—Tearing Down the Walls and Fostering Organizational Change

This article focuses on the ubiquitous problem of bureaucratic fragmentation experienced by organizations of all kinds. It proposes the strategy and practice of boundary management as a way of addressing the problem while creating organizational change. Based on a classic case of an aging Midwestern steel mill, the purpose of the article is threefold: (i) to define the problem of bureaucratic segmentalism and fragmentation as having to do with the formation of divisive and impenetrable barriers and walls, (ii) to suggest the importance of developing and maintaining permeable boundaries designed to open up and integrate the organization, and (iii) to develop the concept and practice of boundary management and its usefulness in tearing down the walls and creating organizational change.     

Inducing Development: Social Remittances and the Expansion of Oil Palm

This paper investigates the relationship between social remittances and land‐use change in the context of South–South migration. Focusing on the cyclical movement of Filipino oil palm workers between the Philippine province of Palawan and the Malaysian State of Sabah, we show how migrants transmit social remittances, such as ideas of prosperity associated with oil palm development and knowledge of production practices and land impacts of oil palm plantations. These social remittances affect farmers’ decisions to engage in oil palm development within the migrants’ home province, possibly transforming subsistence agricultural systems into large‐scale, monocrop plantations. We argue that such land development outcomes are an understudied aspect of how migration affects developing countries, especially in the context of South–South migration. Research findings also suggest how migrants’ social remittances are transmitted, diffused, and utilized at broader social and political units, beyond return migrants’ households and immediate communities in Palawan. Decision outcomes, however, are variable, with households and communities either engaging in or opposing oil palm development, depending on how social remittances are interpreted.     

HOTEL OVERBOOKING AS A MARKOVIAN SEQUENTIAL DECISION PROCESS*

This paper deals with the problems of hotel overbooking and the scientific determination of hotel booking policies. The general hotel reservations system is described, and a Markovian sequential decision model is proposed for it. An application of the model is presented, based on an actual sample of hotel data. Because of the significance of the cancellation phenomena in the sample, the model prescribes a substantial amount of overbooking. The paper concludes with comments regarding the necessity for and course of future research in this area.