Similarities and Differences in Competitiveness Among European NUTS2 Regions: An Empirical Analysis Based on 2010–2013 Data

Social Indicators Research - Regional competitiveness is a concept whose definition and applicability is highly debated among scholars. Nevertheless, over recent years it has become widespread...     

Modernization and Tradition in the Recent History of Italian Fertility

The secular decline of Italian fertility, started in the last decade of the nineteenth century, came to an end in the early 1950'sand has recovered slightly in the last fifteen years. Italian experience seems to follow, with a twenty-year lag, the experience of the more advanced western European populations. At present, with an average of 2.5 children per marriage, Italian fertility is very close to the French and to the average European level.At the regional level, two contrasting patterns can be detected. On one side stands the very low fertility of the North and of the Center, mostly below replacement in the last thirty years;on the other, the still high fertility of the South.In the North and in the Center, where the decline started earlier, fertility has fallen well below replacement level in the last thirty years. In the South, where the decline started in the late 1920's and early 1930's, a large family system still prevails, and the spreading of voluntary control faces barriers setup by a long historyof cultural isolation,attachment to tradition and religion. In the last 15 years, however, the gap has narrowed slowly, more because of an upturn of fertility in the North and in the Center than because of the decline in the South.Another interesting feature of Italian fertility is low class differentials: the fertility of the most prolific segment (farmers, farm laborers) is only 20 percent higher than the fertility of the less prolific professional groups. Finally, Italian experience provides an interesting example of the changing relationship linking the economic level of the population and fertility changes; in 1931-51 a negative correlation linked the changes in fertility to the economic level of the region, while in 1951-61 and 1961-66 a very high and positive correlation can be observed.As for the future trends in fertility, two factors may have an important role. In the first place, on the one hand, the economic policy of the government, aiming at reducing the economic gap between the South and the rest of the country, may accelerate the leveling of regional fertility differentials. The same effect, on the other hand, may be reached by more liberal legislation, now under way, for birth control and family planning propaganda.     

Ambiguity Aversion,Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences

We characterize, in the Anscombe–Aumann framework, the preferences for which there are a utility functionu on outcomes and an ambiguity indexc on the set of probabilities on the states of the world such that, for all acts f and g, . The function u represents the decision maker's risk attitudes, while the index c captures his ambiguity attitudes. These preferences include the multiple priors preferences of Gilboa and Schmeidler and the multiplier preferences of Hansen and Sargent. This provides a rigorous decision‐theoretic foundation for the latter model, which has been widely used in macroeconomics and finance.     

Activation and Local Welfare in Italy: Trends and Issues

This article deals with the development of local welfare in Italy and is grounded on a research project focusing on activation as a main feature of change in Italian social policies. Along with decentralization processes, many Italian regions have been acting as policy laboratories, developing and testing very different approaches according to their political attitude. On the one hand this results in a fragmented policy landscape which is difficult to recompose, and, moreover, in growing inequalities in the Italian welfare system. On the other hand, it opens opportunities for experimentation on institutional and organizational structures on a regional scale, creating a variety of practices for research and policy analysis. In the article we first describe the main trends in national social policies, with a specific focus on the dynamics of change referring to activation. We will then focus on a pilot programme which is aiming at the promotion and implementation of innovative practices in health and social care services in Friuli‐Venezia Giulia, a region in which there is a significant orientation towards enhancing social citizenship and enforcing the central position of the public actor. We investigate how the dynamics of territorialization and personalization, implied by the programme, trigger specific logics and practices of activation. Finally, referring to this case study, we propose an analytical overview of some relevant issues in the development of ‘local active welfare’ in Italy.     

A Smooth Model of Decision Making under Ambiguity

We propose and characterize a model of preferences over acts such that the decision maker prefers act f to act g if and only if 𝔼_μφ(𝔼_πu○f) 𝔼_μφ(𝔼_πu○g), where 𝔼 is the expectation operator, u is a von Neumann–Morgenstern utility function, φis an increasing transformation, and μis a subjective probability over the set Πof probability measures πthat the decision maker thinks are relevant given his subjective information. A key feature of our model is that it achieves a separation between ambiguity, identified as a characteristic of the decision maker's subjective beliefs, and ambiguity attitude, a characteristic of the decision maker's tastes. We show that attitudes toward pure risk are characterized by the shape of u, as usual, while attitudes toward ambiguity are characterized by the shape of φ. Ambiguity itself is defined behaviorally and is shown to be characterized by properties of the subjective set of measures Π. One advantage of this model is that the well‐developed machinery for dealing with risk attitudes can be applied as well to ambiguity attitudes. The model is also distinct from many in the literature on ambiguity in that it allows smooth, rather than kinked, indifference curves. This leads to different behavior and improved tractability, while still sharing the main features (e.g., Ellsberg's paradox). The maxmin expected utility model (e.g., Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989)) with a given set of measures may be seen as a limiting case of our model with infinite ambiguity aversion. Two illustrative portfolio choice examples are offered.     

Presentation

Journal of Management and Governance -     

Resistance distance,closeness, and betweenness

In a seminal paper Stephenson and Zelen (1989) rethought centrality in networks proposing an information-theoretic distance measure among nodes in a network. The suggested information distance diverges from the classical geodesic metric since it is sensible to all paths (not just to the shortest ones) and it diminishes as soon as there are more routes between a pair of nodes. Interestingly, information distance has a clear interpretation in electrical network theory that was missed by the proposing authors. When a fixed resistor is imagined on each edge of the graph, information distance, known as resistance distance in this context, corresponds to the effective resistance between two nodes when a battery is connected across them. Here, we review resistance distance, showing once again, with a simple proof, that it matches information distance. Hence, we interpret both current-flow closeness and current-flow betweenness centrality in terms of resistance distance. We show that this interpretation has semantic, theoretical, and computational benefits.     

Alpha as Ambiguity: Robust Mean‐Variance Portfolio Analysis

We derive the analogue of the classic Arrow–Pratt approximation of the certainty equivalent under model uncertainty as described by the smooth model of decision making under ambiguity of Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji (2005). We study its scope by deriving a tractable mean‐variance model adjusted for ambiguity and solving the corresponding portfolio allocation problem. In the problem with a risk‐free asset, a risky asset, and an ambiguous asset, we find that portfolio rebalancing in response to higher ambiguity aversion only depends on the ambiguous asset's alpha, setting the performance of the risky asset as benchmark. In particular, a positive alpha corresponds to a long position in the ambiguous asset, a negative alpha corresponds to a short position in the ambiguous asset, and greater ambiguity aversion reduces optimal exposure to ambiguity. The analytical tractability of the enhanced Arrow–Pratt approximation renders our model especially well suited for calibration exercises aimed at exploring the consequences of model uncertainty on equilibrium asset prices.