PPP Financing in the Road Sector: A Disequilibrium Analysis Based on the Monetary Circuit

This paper discusses public and private financing of infrastructure against the background of monetary equilibria, where money is not neutral and financing has an impact on allocation through distribution. These correspond to “disequilibrium positions” in the neoclassical barter equilibrium, as they violate some of its optimality conditions. In these contexts, evaluating welfare before and after the realisation of a project implies a comparison between two suboptimal positions. Such a comparison reveals that, contrary to a widely held view, there are not many rational arguments that may lead to prefer private financing to public financing of road infrastructure, particularly where local incomes are low. Post Keynesian analysis in general and its monetary variant of the circuit, are useful tools for the analysis of public investment policies in such a disequilibrium context. In particular, some features of the monetary circuit approach are well suited to address the economic problems raised by the analysis of public private partnerships (PPP), notably: (a) the integration of the banking sector and the recognition of its role in monetary creation by the private sector; (b) the monetary creation by the State within a macroeconomic framework fully integrating public finance; and, (c) the necessary link between uncertainty and disequilibrium. Combined with a partial equilibrium analysis based on realistic microeconomic configurations of costs and transport demand parameters, the analysis of the circuit highlights that PPP in the road sector do not add anything to the level of effective demand, being in fact the other flip of the coin of restrictive budgetary policies. PPP play a role in mobilizing part of the accumulated savings that the State is forbidden to attract directly because of debt ceilings. They have a softening effect on the Government budgetary constraints similar to those that could be reached if the Government was allowed to accrue investment like the private sector, but are a less transparent solution, because the relevant debt is not necessarily recognized in the balance sheet that services it.     

Gambling Disorder: Exploring Pre-treatment and In-treatment Dropout Predictors. A UK Study

The aim of this study was to identify predictors of treatment dropout in a sample of gamblers attending a specialist clinic for gambling disorder. We analysed data on 846 treatment-seeking pathological gamblers. Firstly, we investigated differences in socio-demographic and clinical variables between treatment completers and pre-treatment dropouts, as well as between treatment completers and during-treatment dropouts. Subsequently, variables were entered into a multinomial logistic regression model to identify significant predictors of pre-treatment and in-treatment dropout. Overall, 44.8% of clients did not complete the treatment: 27.4% dropped out before starting it, while 17.4% dropped out during the treatment. Younger age and use of drugs were associated with pre-treatment dropout, while family history of gambling disorder, a lower PGSI score, and being a smoker were related with in-treatment dropout. Our findings suggest that pre-treatment dropouts differ from in-treatment dropouts, and, thus, further research will benefit from considering these groups separately. In addition, this newly gained knowledge will also be helpful in increasing treatment retention in specific subgroups of problem gamblers.     

Macroeconomic Factors Strike Back: A Bayesian Change-Point Model of Time-Varying Risk Exposures and Premia in the U.S. Cross-Section

This article proposes a Bayesian estimation framework for a typical multi-factor model with time-varying risk exposures to macroeconomic risk factors and corresponding premia to price U.S. publicly traded assets. The model assumes that risk exposures and idiosyncratic volatility follow a break-point latent process, allowing for changes at any point on time but not restricting them to change at all points. The empirical application to 40 years of U.S. data and 23 portfolios shows that the approach yields sensible results compared to previous two-step methods based on naive recursive estimation schemes, as well as a set of alternative model restrictions. A variance decomposition test shows that although most of the predictable variation comes from the market risk premium, a number of additional macroeconomic risks, including real output and inflation shocks, are significantly priced in the cross-section. A Bayes factor analysis massively favors the proposed change-point model. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Ethnography and the digital fields of social media

Qualitative researchers struggle to study the transient fields of social network sites like Twitter through conventional ethnographic approaches. This paper suggests that, in order to step further, we should distinguish between the relatively stable ‘contextual’ fields of bounded online communities and the fluid, ‘meta-fields’ resulting from the aggregation of scattered communicative contents based on their metadata. Both these two intertwined layers of the digital environment interplay with users’ online social practices – which are embedded within offline everyday life and vice versa. While Internet ethnography largely dealt with contextual digital fields, recent developments in the realm of online research allow the ethnographic exploration of digital meta-fields and their publics. This shift recalls Marcus’ appeal for a multi-sited ethnography but, in fact, goes further beyond, towards a truly ‘un-sited’ ethnography. I highlight and discuss the main methodological implications of meta- and contextual fieldworks by presenting an exploratory study of European exchange students’ Facebook identities.     

Behavioral Identification in Coalitional Bargaining: An Experimental Analysis of Demand Bargaining and Alternating Offers

Alternating‐offer and demand bargaining models of legislative bargaining make very different predictions in terms of both ex ante and ex post distribution of payoffs, as well as in the role of the order of play. The experiment shows that actual bargaining behavior is not as sensitive to the different bargaining rules as the theoretical point predictions, whereas the comparative statics are in line with both models. We compare our results to studies that attempt to distinguish between these two approaches using field data, finding strong similarities between the laboratory and field data regardless of the underlying bargaining process.     

Measuring Disparities in Access to Health Care: A Proposal Based on an Ex-ante Perspective

Social Indicators Research - We provide a novel approach to evaluate access to health care based on the monetization of access barriers individuals face. This approach allows to distinguish the...     

On the Smooth Ambiguity Model: A Reply

We find that Epstein's (2010) Ellsberg‐style thought experiments pose, contrary to his claims, no paradox or difficulty for the smooth ambiguity model of decision making under uncertainty developed by Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji (2005). Not only are the thought experiments naturally handled by the smooth ambiguity model, but our reanalysis shows that they highlight some of its strengths compared to models such as the maxmin expected utility model (Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989)). In particular, these examples pose no challenge to the model's foundations—interpretation of the model as affording a separation of ambiguity and ambiguity attitude or the potential for calibrating ambiguity attitude in the model.     

The Depopulation of Hispanic America after the Conquest

During the century following Columbus's landfall, the population of America experienced a precipitous decline. A widely accepted explanation is the diffusion of Eurasian pathogens among the nonimmune Indians with the attendant catastrophic mortality. Contemporary observers—conquerors, administrators, missionaries, and chroniclers—while mentioning disease among factors in the decline, were convinced that the demographic collapse was due to a plurality of factors, such as serfdom and the confiscation of labor, excessive work, economic and social dislocation, wars and conflicts, and impediments to reproduction. Reconsideration of historical evidence supports the notion that new pathologies cannot satisfactorily explain the varying demographic impacts of Conquest. The Tainos of the Antilles were on the verge of extinction before the first smallpox epidemics struck the islands in 1518; the Guaranís of Paraguay were flourishing in spite of recurrent epidemics; in Peru civil wars were the major cause of decline during the first two decades of Spanish rule. A reappraisal of the Indian catastrophe must consider—together with the impact of the new viruses—the modes and circumstances of European domination.