Minimal manipulability: anonymity and unanimity

This paper is concerned with the minimal number of profiles at which a unanimous and anonymous social choice function for three alternatives is manipulable. The lower bound is derived and examples of social choice functions attaining the lower bound are given. It is conjectured that these social choice functions are in fact all minimally manipulable social choice functions. Since some of these social choice functions are Pareto optimal, it follows that the lower bound also holds for Pareto optimal and anonymous social choice functions. Some of the minimally manipulable Pareto optimal and anonymous social choice functions can be interpreted as status quo voting.     

Seeing What You Want to See: How Imprecise Uncertainty Ranges Enhance Motivated Reasoning

In this article, we consider a novel criterion for evaluating representations of uncertainty ranges, namely, the extent to which a representation enhances motivated reasoning. In two studies, we show that perceptions of the distribution underlying ambiguous numerical ranges are affected by the motivations and worldviews of end users. This motivated reasoning effect remained after controlling for objective numeracy and fluid intelligence but was attenuated when the correct interpretation was made clear. We suggest that analysts and communicators explicitly consider the potential for motivated evaluation when evaluating uncertainty displays.     

Modeling Extreme Risks in Ecology

Extreme risks in ecology are typified by circumstances in which data are sporadic or unavailable, understanding is poor, and decisions are urgently needed. Expert judgments are pervasive and disagreements among experts are commonplace. We outline approaches to evaluating extreme risks in ecology that rely on stochastic simulation, with a particular focus on methods to evaluate the likelihood of extinction and quasi‐extinction of threatened species, and the likelihood of establishment and spread of invasive pests. We evaluate the importance of assumptions in these assessments and the potential of some new approaches to account for these uncertainties, including hierarchical estimation procedures and generalized extreme value distributions. We conclude by examining the treatment of consequences in extreme risk analysis in ecology and how expert judgment may better be harnessed to evaluate extreme risks.     

Donation to disaster relief campaigns: Underlying social cognitive factors exposed

A number of very serious natural disasters have put an enormous pressure on relief organizations in the last few years. The present study exposes underlying social cognitive factors for donation to relief campaigns. A causal model was constructed, based on social cognitive theory, research on attitudes, and the impact of media exposure. The aim was to expand and improve an already existing model by Cheung and Chan [Cheung, C. K., & Chan, C. M. (2000). Social-cognitive factors of donating money to charity, with special attention to an international relief organisation. Evaluation and Program Planning, 23, 241–253]. The expanded model showed a better fit. Furthermore, the expanded model explained two-thirds of the variance of the intention to donate to a disaster relief campaign. The greatest predictor of the intention to donate proved to be “Past donation to disaster relief campaigns.” The factor “News exposure” was indicated to be a valuable additional factor, as it had a significant direct effect on “Awareness of a disaster relief campaign” and was the only factor that had a total effect on all other factors, including “Intention to donate to a disaster relief campaign.”     

Enhancing the mind? Memory medicine, dementia, and the aging brain

The study explores the relationship between the neurosciences, aging, anti-aging culture, memory medicine, and the hypercognitive society. The first part traces the discourses of mind from the Enlightenment to contemporary biosocial models where the aging brain has become a social laboratory for research, experimentation, and intervention. The second part explores the Cholinergic Hypothesis, the development of the cholinesterase inhibitors and their recent implementation in cases of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). Critical questions are posed about how the mission to optimize aging has affected projects to enhance the mind.     

Efficient solutions to bargaining problems with uncertain disagreement points

We consider a cooperative model of bargaining where the location of the disagreement point may be uncertain. Based on the maximin criterion, we formulate an ex ante efficiency condition and characterize the class of bargaining solutions satisfying this axiom. These solutions are generalizations of the monotone path solutions. Adding individual rationality yields a subclass of these solutions. By employing maximin efficiency and an invariance property that implies individual rationality, a new axiomatization of the monotone path solutions is obtained. Furthermore, we examine the consequences of employing efficiency axioms based on alternative decision criteria. Received: 17 March 2000/Accepted: 15 January 2001     

GIS analysis of urban schoolyard landcover in three U.S. cities

Although there has been considerable interest in the rejuvenation and greening of inner-city schoolyards for several decades, recent studies on the behavioral and environmental impacts of greenspace, particularly tree cover, suggest that greenspace on schools may be more important than previously understood. However, little is known about the conditions and landcover of urban schoolyards. To understand the structure of the landcover on city schoolyards, this study used Geographic Information System software to classify and compare landcover on 258 U.S. public elementary and middle schools in Baltimore, MD, Boston, MA, and Detroit, MI. For all three cities, schoolyard was found to cover, on average, more than 68% of the school property, which was an average of 1.0–2.5 ha in size. Boston’s schoolyards (circa 1995) were notably smaller from those in Baltimore and Detroit, and they had far more impervious surface. On average, schoolyards were dominated by turf grass and impervious surface, while tree canopy occupied the smallest fraction of schoolyard landcover (approximately 10%). In light of these findings, we conclude by discussing how greening might be achieved on these and other yards.     

Normal stress and coping

Many Black families have chosen alternative lifestyles to accommodate the realities in their lives. The diversity in their lifestyles has often been viewed as “deviance” or “pathological” by White-oriented social science professionals. Black families, however, encounter the pressures any American family may face, and in addition they live under the continuous and varying stress of racially motivated oppression and inequalities that affect many aspects of their lives. The alternative lifestyles many Black American families have developed help to illuminate how Black families cope with the dual stresses of race and life events. This article describes the impact of stress in the lives of two of the variant alternative family forms found in Black families—a single parent family and an extended family. The two families are part of a comprehensive longitudinal study of Black families and their children, the Toddler and Infant Experiences Study (TIES). In addition to documentation of family stress, the data are examined within a conceptual framework that recognizes the dual stress factors of race and life events.     

The Influence of Gender Composition in Powerful Positions on Public Relations Practitioners' Gender-Related Perceptions

Against the background of the high feminization of the German agency sector, this article investigates 2 specific factors that help explain women's careers in public relations agencies: gender stereotypes and the organizational context. We present parts of a recent German explorative study: Long interviews were conducted with 13 female public relations experts to explain their view on women's situation in public relations in general and to describe their own careers. Findings reveal the evolution of a “PR bunny” stereotype that adds a negative touch to the female image as “natural born communicators.” Furthermore, our results support the argument that women seem to prefer (a) the organizational culture of public relations agencies, (b) agency-specific job tasks, and (c) agency-specific work processes. Possible consequences for practitioners and the profession are discussed.     

The Use of Narrative Evidence and Explicit Likelihood by Decisionmakers Varying in Numeracy

Decisionmakers are often presented with explicit likelihood assessments (e.g., there is a 10% chance that an attack will occur over the next three months) and supporting narrative evidence in forecasting and risk communication domains. Decisionmakers are thought to rely on both numerical and narrative information to the extent that they perceive the information to be diagnostic, accurate, and trustworthy. In two studies, we explored how lay decisionmakers varying in numeracy evaluated and used likelihood assessments and narrative evidence in forecasts. Overall, the less numerate reported higher risk and likelihood perceptions. In simple probabilistic forecasts without narrative evidence, decisionmakers at all levels of numeracy were able to use the stated likelihood information, although risk perceptions of the less numerate were more affected by likelihood format. When a forecast includes narrative evidence, decisionmakers were better able to use stated likelihood in a percentage as compared to frequency or verbal formats. The more numerate used stated likelihood more in their evaluations whereas the less numerate focused more on the narrative evidence. These results have important implications for risk analysts and forecasters who need to report the results of their analyses to decisionmakers. Decisionmakers varying in numerical ability may evaluate forecasts in different ways depending on the types of information they find easiest to evaluate.