Ancestral Inference in Population Genetics Models with Selection (with Discussion)

A new algorithm is presented for exact simulation from the conditional distribution of the genealogical history of a sample, given the composition of the sample, for population genetics models with general diploid selection. The method applies to the usual diffusion approximation of evolution at a single locus, in a randomly mating population of constant size, for mutation models in which the distribution of the type of a mutant does not depend on the type of the progenitor allele; this includes any model with only two alleles. The new method is applied to ancestral inference for the two‐allele case, both with genic selection and heterozygote advantage and disadvantage, where one of the alleles is assumed to have resulted from a unique mutation event. The paper describes how the method could be used for inference when data are also available at neutral markers linked to the locus under selection. It also informally describes and constructs the non‐neutral Fleming–Viot measure‐valued diffusion.     

A Content Analysis of Violence in American War Movies

In a content analysis of movie violence, we randomly selected twelve top-grossing American war films from four decades (1970 to 2002). We coded for implements of violence, length of violence, gore, and violence directed at noncombatants. We hypothesized that recently released war movies would be more violent than those released earlier. We found that films released since 1990 did contain more violence compared to others. Further, the intensity of gore increased in recently released movies.     

Post-crisis communication and renewal: Expanding the parameters of post-crisis discourse

Crisis communication is growing as a field of study due in part to the frequency and high profile nature of recent crises such as 9/11, Anthrax and bioterrorism in the mail supply, the Tsunami in the Southeast Asia, and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. In each of these crises, the role of communication has been highlighted. Communication is particularly challenging during crises because an immediate response is necessary, because of the looming threat, and because these situations are inherently uncertain. Much of the present literature suggests that managing image during a crisis is critical to an effective response [Benoit, W. L. (1995). Accounts, excuses and apologies. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press; Coombs, W. T. (1999). Ongoing crisis communication: Planning, managing, and responding. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage; Hearit, K. M. (1995). “Mistakes were made”: Organizations, apologia and crises of social legitimacy. Communication Studies, 46, 1–17]. Although image is important and embedded within the threat, uncertainty, and chaos of crisis so too is the opportunity for growth and renewal. In this case, depending upon the crisis, either issues of image restoration or renewal may emerge as more of a central theme in the post-crisis discourse. This paper argues that renewal, along with image restoration, is an important genre of post-crisis discourse. As a result, efforts to understand post-crisis communication should be expanded to include both image restoration and the discourse of renewal.     

LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS and AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOR

This paper presents time series evidence on the importance of liquidity constraints in aggregate consumption expenditures. In contrast to previous studies, I find the proportion of consumption attributable to liquidity constrained behavior to be large and highly statistically significant. The estimation pays careful attention to the problems of stochastic consumption and temporal aggregation, and the estimates are shown to be robust to alternative specifications involving costly adjustment of consumption, public spending, and to stochastically varying rates of return.     

Familiarity effects in nonverbal understanding: Recognizing our own facial expressions and our friends'

In this study we explored how individuals' private expressions are interpreted by the self, same-sex friends, and strangers. Videotapes were made of participants as they watched pleasant, unpleasant, and unusual slides. Approximately a year later, the tapes were shown to the participant, a same-sex friend, another participant, and the other participant's friend. Judges were able to read the facial expressions at levels of accuracy that were significantly greater than chance. They were no better at reading familiar targets (themselves or their friends) than unfamiliar ones (strangers), with only one exception (men were better at recognizing the reactions of familiar targets than unfamiliar targets viewing pleasant slides). In their abilities to understand nonverbal cues, female friends showed resemblances to each other on all accuracy measures (pleasant/unpleasant/unusual X familiar/unfamiliar). Male friends resembled each other only in their understanding of the reactions of unfamiliar men viewing unpleasant slides.This research was supported in part by an NSF grant and an NIMH Research Scientist Development Award to the second author. We thank Charles Frohman and Laura Yamhure for their help with this research.     

The Relationship between Economic Development and Social Welfare: A New Adjusted GDP Measure of Welfare

Existing literature focuses on the issue ofpreparation of social welfare measurements onthe basis of an unadjusted Gross DomesticProduct (GDP). This paper extends this methodto incorporate cost-benefit analysis ofeconomic growth in a growing economy incalculating the adjusted GDP, termed as thecost-benefit (CB)-adjusted GDP. This approachis empirically applied to Thailand. There arestark differences between GDP per capita and CBadjusted GDP per capita rates for this period.This paper concludes that GDP can be used as anindicator of social welfare if the GDPestimates are undertaken within a cost-benefitanalysis framework.