Long memory estimation for complex-valued time series

Statistics and Computing - Long memory has been observed for time series across a multitude of fields, and the accurate estimation of such dependence, for example via the Hurst exponent, is crucial...     

R package rjmcmc: reversible jump MCMC using post‐processing

The rjmcmc package for R implements the post‐processing reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Barker & Link. MCMC output from each of the models is used to estimate posterior model probabilities and Bayes factors. Automatic differentiation is used to simplify implementation. The package is demonstrated on two examples.     

Much ado about very little: The dubious connection between ethnic minority business policy and ethnic minority entrepreneurship

This article presents a historical reprise of 40 years of policy interest in ethnic minority businesses in the UK. It contrasts the pronouncements of policymakers with the reality of ethnic minority entrepreneurship. Such an exercise is surprisingly rare given the activism of policymakers in this arena and growing scholarly interest in this field. Our historical overview is informed by a novel research method that plots references to ethnic minority entrepreneurship in the British Houses of Parliament. Though the UK has been the site of some interesting policy experiments on ethnic minority entrepreneurship, their impact has been slight when set against the context of broader political-economic change.     

See no evil,hear no evil,speak no evil: assessing complex trauma in young children

Complex trauma generally refers to a child's exposure to multiple traumatic events often within the context of an interpersonal relationship. Childhood traumatic events are commonplace and can have significant implications for physical and mental health. However, traumatic events are often not assessed by clinicians involved in their care. This paper outlines an approach to assessing complex trauma in young children in clinical settings. This approach involves an initial interview, an assessment of traumatic events and trauma symptoms in the child, an assessment of the parent–child interaction, an understanding of the child's functioning in multiple settings, and an assessment of parental trauma where relevant. Complex trauma takes time to assess and is dependent on the parent's ability to recognise and acknowledge the effect trauma has had. The paper concludes with some of the challenges when assessing complex trauma in young children in clinical settings.     

Making sense of nuclear war: narratives of voluntary civil defence and the memory of Britain’s Cold War

In interviews with members of Britain’s Civil Defence Services, experiences of Cold War voluntarism are recalled in different ways. Some remembered their desire to help defend their nation and local community. Others remembered making a leisure choice that had little connection to the potential nuclear war the organization was ostensibly preparing for. No one provided a well-developed account of civil defence’s ability to provide a defence against the effects of a nuclear war. Popular memory theorists suggest cultural discourse limits the ability of individuals to narrate stories that do not align with culturally valued frameworks: in this case, dominant understandings of civil defence as at best ridiculous or at worst dangerous were established in the 1980s. This article argues that memories of civil defence voluntarism in the 1950-60s have been shaped by these discourses, but that individuals were able to express the different meanings civil defence had in their lives in ways that provide a more nuanced and holistic picture of the intersections of leisure, service and sociability that made up civil defence. As such, it argues that oral history allows us to understand the various ‘horizons of possibility’ that made up individual experiences of the Cold War.     

Loneliness and Peer Relations in Adolescence

The present study examined whether adolescent loneliness would be lower within the context of positive relationships with peers. The core conceptual model predicted that hypothesized links between peer‐rated social behaviors or victimization and loneliness would be mediated by social acceptance. Relationship experiences (i.e., social acceptance, reciprocal liking, and romantic relationship history), also were hypothesized to serve as protective factors in the links between social behaviors/victimization and loneliness. Finally, we examined sociometric status group differences in loneliness. Participants were 2091 11th grade students (61 percent girls). As expected, adolescent loneliness was positively associated with shyness, even when social acceptance was controlled. Additionally, loneliness was positively correlated with victimization and inversely related to prosocial and disruptive behavior. The link between victimization and loneliness was fully mediated by social acceptance; no other mediational models were supported. Also, the three relationship experience variables were unique predictors of loneliness (with social acceptance explaining the bulk of the variance in loneliness). There was no evidence, however, that social acceptance moderated the links between social behavior or victimization and loneliness. Sociometric analyses revealed that neglected and shy‐rejected, but not aggressive‐rejected adolescents, were lonelier than average peers.