Urban and peri-urban aquaculture as an immediate source of food fish: Perspectives of Dhaka City,Bangladesh

This paper describes the present status of aquaculture activities in Dhaka City and its surrounding areas including the system of fish marketing and distribution and environmental and socioeconomic issues. Dhaka City contains over 10 million people and is expanding day by day. Demand of fish in the last 10 years has increased as a result of increases in population and income levels. The annual per capita consumption of fish is reported to drop by 0.5 kg since 1985. The reason for this decline is increased prices and decreased supply of fish. Fish supply to the city comes from catch in the rivers-estuaries and floodlands of Dhaka district, neighboring districts, imports from other areas and aquaculture in surrounding areas of the city. Considerable quantities of fish are imported from India, Myanmar and Thailand. Seasonal patterns are common both in supply and consumption of fish. Along with traditional rural household aquaculture, in recent years, urban and peri-urban aquaculture has also been popular. Three broad types of aquaculture activities are found in and around Dhaka City; these are polyculture of carp in ponds, monoculture of catfishs in ponds, and pen and cage aquaculture in open waters. The carp includes both Indian major carp and Chinese carp and some minor carp. The catfish group includes mainly Thai pangas (Pangasius sutchi). Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) is also widely popular among the farmers. The technology used for aquaculture is improved extensive to semi-intensive. Increasing demand for fish in the city markets has encouraged the expansion of peri-urban aquaculture with a corresponding increase in the proportion of farmed fish in the markets.     

Comparison of the finite mixture of ARMA-GARCH,back propagation neural networks and support-vector machines in forecasting financial returns

The use of GARCH type models and computational-intelligence-based techniques for forecasting financial time series has been proved extremely successful in recent times. In this article, we apply the finite mixture of ARMA-GARCH model instead of AR or ARMA models to compare with the standard BP and SVM in forecasting financial time series (daily stock market index returns and exchange rate returns). We do not apply the pure GARCH model as the finite mixture of the ARMA-GARCH model outperforms the pure GARCH model. These models are evaluated on five performance metrics or criteria. Our experiment shows that the SVM model outperforms both the finite mixture of ARMA-GARCH and BP models in deviation performance criteria. In direction performance criteria, the finite mixture of ARMA-GARCH model performs better. The memory property of these forecasting techniques is also examined using the behavior of forecasted values vis-à-vis the original values. Only the SVM model shows long memory property in forecasting financial returns.     

Assessing large sample bias in misspecified model scenarios with reference to exposure model misspecification in errors-in-variable regression: A new computational approach

In this paper, we develop a numerical method for evaluating the large sample bias in estimated regression coefficients arising due to exposure model misspecification while adjusting for measurement errors in errors-in-variable regression. The application of the proposed method has been demonstrated in the case of a logistic errors-in-variable regression model. The method is based on the combination of Monte-Carlo, numerical and, in some special cases, analytic integration techniques. The proposed method facilitates the investigation of the limiting bias in the estimated regression parameters based on a single data set rather than on repeated data sets as required by the conventional repeated sample method. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method provides very similar estimates of bias in the estimated regression parameters under exposure model misspecification in logistic errors-in-variable regression with a higher degree of precision as compared to the conventional repeated sample method.     

Spatial smoothing of low birth weight rate in Bangladesh using Bayesian hierarchical model

The term low birth weight refers an event where a newborn baby has a weight that is less than 2500?g. This is an essential indicator while the interest is in public health issues such as infant mortality, maternal complications, and antenatal care, etc. of a country, particularly, for a developing country like Bangladesh. The regional development programs are in the current priority list of Bangladesh government and other policy makers. Many of such regional development programs may need the spatial distribution of relative risk for low birth weight that can be obtained by mapping the risks over small area domains like the districts of Bangladesh. This study aims to find whether is there any spatial dependence among the relative risks of low birth weight for the districts of Bangladesh. This has been investigated using Moran's I statistic and a significant spatial dependence in the relative risks was found. Then, attempt has been made to rediscover the spatial distribution based on the idea of spatial smoothing. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used considering percent received antenatal care and female labor force participation as covariates to smooth the observed relative risks of low birth weight in 64 districts of Bangladesh. Revised spatial distribution taking the spatial dependence under consideration through intrinsic conditional autoregressive model is derived and showed in choropleth map along with its different behaviors.     

A PRESS statistic for working correlation structure selection in generalized estimating equations

Generalized estimating equations (GEE) is one of the most commonly used methods for regression analysis of longitudinal data, especially with discrete outcomes. The GEE method accounts for the association among the responses of a subject through a working correlation matrix and its correct specification ensures efficient estimation of the regression parameters in the marginal mean regression model. This study proposes a predicted residual sum of squares (PRESS) statistic as a working correlation selection criterion in GEE. A simulation study is designed to assess the performance of the proposed GEE PRESS criterion and to compare its performance with its counterpart criteria in the literature. The results show that the GEE PRESS criterion has better performance than the weighted error sum of squares SC criterion in all cases but is surpassed in performance by the Gaussian pseudo-likelihood criterion. Lastly, the working correlation selection criteria are illustrated with data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study.     

Enrolling girls without learning: Evidence from public schools in Afghanistan

While more girls are now attending school in Afghanistan than prior to 2010, there is a lack of evidence on how school attendance is helping their cognitive development. We use data from a large sample of all‐girls state‐funded school students to estimate for the first time the “learning profile” for Afghanistan. Students enrolled in grades 4 to 9 were assessed using the Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA) and the Early Grade Mathematics Assessment (EGMA) test items. We find that higher grade progression (particularly in grades 6–9) leads to almost no gain in numeracy (addition and subtraction) skills that should have been achieved in early grades. Similar results follow from the analysis of student performance in the EGRA test, particularly in oral reading fluency (correct words read per minute) and oral reading comprehension (number of correct answers out of 12). These findings warn that simply enrolling girls in school without improving the relationship between grade completion and learning is unlikely to transform the lives of women in Afghanistan.     

The nexus between extreme weather events,sexual violence,and early marriage: a study of vulnerable populations in Bangladesh

Population and Environment - This study aims to explore whether a relationship exists between extreme weather events, sexual violence, and early marriage. We selected two districts in Bangladesh...     

Assessing recall bias and measurement error in high-frequency social data collection for human-environment research

Population and Environment - A major impediment to understanding human-environment interactions is that data on social systems are not collected in a way that is easily comparable to natural...     

Correction to: Assessing recall bias and measurement error in high-frequency social data collection for human-environment research

Population and Environment - The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake. The name of “Md. Ehsanul Haque Tamal” is now corrected in the author group of this...     

Key considerations for choosing a statistical method to deal with incomplete treatment adherence in pragmatic trials

Pragmatic trials offer practical means of obtaining real-world evidence to help improve decision-making in comparative effectiveness settings. Unfortunately, incomplete adherence is a common problem in pragmatic trials. The commonly used methods in randomized control trials often cannot handle the added complexity imposed by incomplete adherence, resulting in biased estimates. Several naive methods and advanced causal inference methods (e.g., inverse probability weighting and instrumental variable-based approaches) have been used in the literature to deal with incomplete adherence. Practitioners and applied researchers are often confused about which method to consider under a given setting. This current work is aimed to review commonly used statistical methods to deal with non-adherence along with their key assumptions, advantages, and limitations, with a particular focus on pragmatic trials. We have listed the applicable settings for these methods and provided a summary of available software. All methods were applied to two hypothetical datasets to demonstrate how these methods perform in a given scenario, along with the R codes. The key considerations include the type of intervention strategy (point treatment settings, where treatment is administered only once versus sustained treatment settings, where treatment has to be continued over time) and availability of data (e.g., the extent of measured or unmeasured covariates that are associated with adherence, dependent confounding impacted by past treatment, and potential violation of assumptions). This study will guide practitioners and applied researchers to use the appropriate statistical method to address incomplete adherence in pragmatic trial settings for both the point and sustained treatment strategies.