The Future of Termination of Parental Rights Research and Practice: A Commentary on Ben-David

Termination of parental rights (TPR) is one of the most important decisions made by the legal system. Due to the importance of the TPR legal process, it is essential to understand the risk and protective factors that influence TPR decisions and under which conditions these factors are most influential. This commentary begins with a brief review of the literature regarding TPR. Subsequently, the Ben-David article is reviewed, highlighting the strengths and challenges that emerge from the study. Future directions are then discussed, with a focus on several recent articles that should guide researchers in the TPR field. Finally, clinical implications for social service providers and agencies are explored, with particular attention to how the TPR literature can guide best practices in clinical work.     

A brief telephone interview to identify lesbian and bisexual women in random digit dialing sampling

Lesbian health research has most often relied on nonprobability samples that are biased and restrict generalizability. Random sampling could reduce bias, but requires development of a method for fast and reliable screening of a large number of women. We tested the feasibility of using a brief telephone interview to assess sexual attraction, behavior, and identity. Using Random Digit Dialing in a neighborhood of Boston with a high density of lesbian residents, we interviewed 202 women aged 18 to 59. Of the respondents, 33% reported some sexual attraction to other women, 20% reported sex with women since age 18, and 14% identified as a lesbian. The high level of cooperation with the study among eligible women (94%) and the high proportion of women who disclosed homosexual attraction, behavior, or identity show that it is feasible to use a brief screening questionnaire about sexuality of women over the telephone even without building special rapport with the respondents.     

RELIGION AND SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY: A CROSSNATIONAL EXAMINATION

This article examines citizens' support for democracy across forty-six nations. The authors use multilevel modeling and data from the World Values Survey and other sources to assess individuals' support for democracy in light of broader country-level factors as well as individual proclivities toward religion, politics and community. Findings suggest that the predominance of a particular religion in a nation does not influence individuals' views in and of itself. It does, however, matter when individuals' religious beliefs and practices as well as their civic engagement are taken into account. These factors, even in predominantly Muslim countries, appear to foster rather than hinder positive views towards democracy. But individuals seeking a prominent role for religion in government are likely to be substantially less supportive of democracy. Such antidemocratic attitudes appear countered in a citizenry where many are engaged in conventional political activities, have attained higher social statuses and reside in highly globalized states with Protestant or Muslim majorities and without a Communist legacy.     

Who Is in Charge? Social Inequality in Different Fields of Volunteering

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - Volunteering in civil society organizations (CSOs) is sometimes idealized as welcoming arena for everybody. Prior...     

Efficiency of consumer intertemporal choice under life cycle cost conditions

Many decisions made by consumers are intertemporal. Life cycle cost (LCC) conditions represent a specific type of intertemporal decisions, typically referring to items involving two cost components: present purchase price and future maintenance costs. This paper presents a conceptual framework for analyzing consumer LCC decision making. Within this framework the notion of choice efficiency is highlighted. The main contribution of the study is the direct estimation of consumers’ choice efficiency, as compared to previous studies that estimate only consumers’ implicit discount rates. Effects of situational and personal variables on efficiency of choice are estimated by means of a series of manipulated choice settings. The main empirical findings show situational effects of monetary size, type of object and time horizon. Additional findings show the effect of personal variables such as gender, marital status and education.     

Decreasing absolute risk aversion, prudence and increased downside risk aversion

Downside risk increases have previously been characterized as changes preferred by all decision makers u(x) with u????(x) > 0. For risk averse decision makers, u????(x) > 0 also defines prudence. This paper finds that downside risk increases can also be characterized as changes preferred by all decision makers displaying decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA) since those changes involve random variables that have equal means. Building on these findings, the paper proposes using ??more decreasingly absolute risk averse?? or ??more prudent?? as alternative definitions of increased downside risk aversion. These alternative definitions generate a transitive ordering, while the existing definition based on a transformation function with a positive third derivative does not. Other properties of the new definitions of increased downside risk aversion are also presented.     

Density estimation with distribution element trees

The estimation of probability densities based on available data is a central task in many statistical applications. Especially in the case of large ensembles with many samples or high-dimensional sample spaces, computationally efficient methods are needed. We propose a new method that is based on a decomposition of the unknown distribution in terms of so-called distribution elements (DEs). These elements enable an adaptive and hierarchical discretization of the sample space with small or large elements in regions with smoothly or highly variable densities, respectively. The novel refinement strategy that we propose is based on statistical goodness-of-fit and pairwise (as an approximation to mutual) independence tests that evaluate the local approximation of the distribution in terms of DEs. The capabilities of our new method are inspected based on several examples of different dimensionality and successfully compared with other state-of-the-art density estimators.     

Robust confidence regions for the semi-parametric regression model with responses missing at random

In this paper, a regression semi-parametric model is considered where responses are assumed to be missing at random. From the empirical likelihood function defined based on the rank-based estimating equation, robust confidence intervals/regions of the true regression coefficient are derived. Monte Carlo simulation experiments show that the proposed approach provides more accurate confidence intervals/regions compared to its normal approximation counterpart under different model error structure. The approach is also compared with the least squares approach, and its superiority is shown whenever the error distribution in the simulation study is heavy tailed or contaminated. Finally, a real data example is given to illustrate our proposed method.     

Bayesian bivariate survival analysis using the power variance function copula

Copula models have become increasingly popular for modelling the dependence structure in multivariate survival data. The two-parameter Archimedean family of Power Variance Function (PVF) copulas includes the Clayton, Positive Stable (Gumbel) and Inverse Gaussian copulas as special or limiting cases, thus offers a unified approach to fitting these important copulas. Two-stage frequentist procedures for estimating the marginal distributions and the PVF copula have been suggested by Andersen (Lifetime Data Anal 11:333–350, 2005), Massonnet et al. (J Stat Plann Inference 139(11):3865–3877, 2009) and Prenen et al. (J R Stat Soc Ser B 79(2):483–505, 2017) which first estimate the marginal distributions and conditional on these in a second step to estimate the PVF copula parameters. Here we explore an one-stage Bayesian approach that simultaneously estimates the marginal and the PVF copula parameters. For the marginal distributions, we consider both parametric as well as semiparametric models. We propose a new method to simulate uniform pairs with PVF dependence structure based on conditional sampling for copulas and on numerical approximation to solve a target equation. In a simulation study, small sample properties of the Bayesian estimators are explored. We illustrate the usefulness of the methodology using data on times to appendectomy for adult twins in the Australian NH&MRC Twin registry. Parameters of the marginal distributions and the PVF copula are simultaneously estimated in a parametric as well as a semiparametric approach where the marginal distributions are modelled using Weibull and piecewise exponential distributions, respectively.     

三螺旋模式与知识经济

大学、产业与政府三者之间关系构成了一个三螺旋模型,可将此关系网络的新体制模型推广为三种选择环境如何相互作用的新进化模型。两种相互作用的选择机制能形成一个轨道,而三个选择环境则有望生成一种管理制度。通过新进化模型既可理解大学、产业与政府三者间关系的机构整合,又可理解财富创造、知识生产和立法等功能的不同。对于国家、部门和区域创新系统的说明便可以确切地阐述为一个实证问题：协同是否由关系网络的不同功能而产生？由此,该三螺旋模型使我们能在全球层次上,根据局部稳定（和潜在锁定）轨道之间的权衡,对比技术经济制度,研究某种经济的知识基础。