A comparison of some conditional and unconditional exact tests for 2x2 contingency tables

In 1935, R.A. Fisher published his well-known “exact” test for 2x2 contingency tables. This test is based on the conditional distribution of a cell entry when the rows and columns marginal totals are held fixed. Tocher (1950) and Lehmann (1959) showed that Fisher s test, when supplemented by randomization, is uniformly most powerful among all the unbiased tests UMPU). However, since all the practical tests for 2x2 tables are nonrandomized - and therefore biased the UMPU test is not necessarily more powerful than other tests of the same or lower size. Inthis work, the two-sided Fisher exact test and the UMPU test are compared with six nonrandomized unconditional exact tests with respect to their power. In both the two-binomial and double dichotomy models, the UMPU test is often less powerful than some of the unconditional tests of the same (or even lower) size. Thus, the assertion that the Tocher-Lehmann modification of Fisher's conditional test is the optimal test for 2x2 tables is unjustified.     

Rolling horizon master production schedule performance: A policy analysis

In this paper, a simulation experiment has been developed to examine the combined influence of the design, inventory and environmental factors on the cost performance of a rolling horizon master production schedule. Specifically, a 2 5 factorial design was used to examine the effects associated with three rolling schedule design policies, one inventory policy and one environmental condition of forecast error on MPS cost performance. The study was based on actual data from a paint company. Results suggest that the choice of appropriate lot-size and inventory policies have a significant influence on MPS costs and that there are indeed important interactions between these policies and other design factors of a rolling schedule.     

NIMBY, CLAMP, and the Location of New Nuclear-Related Facilities: U.S. National and 11 Site-Specific Surveys

Public and political opposition have made finding locations for new nuclear power plants, waste management, and nuclear research and development facilities a challenge for the U.S. government and the nuclear industry. U.S. government-owned properties that already have nuclear-related activities and commercial nuclear power generating stations are logical locations. Several studies and utility applications to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission suggest that concentrating locations at major plants (CLAMP) has become an implicit siting policy. We surveyed 2,101 people who lived within 50 miles of 11 existing major nuclear sites and 600 who lived elsewhere in the United States. Thirty-four percent favored CLAMP for new nuclear power plants, 52% for waste management facilities, and 50% for new nuclear laboratories. College educated, relatively affluent male whites were the strongest CLAMP supporters. They disproportionately trusted those responsible for the facilities and were not worried about existing nuclear facilities or other local environmental issues. Notably, they were concerned about continuing coal use. Not surprisingly, CLAMP proponents tended to be familiar with their existing local nuclear site. In short, likely CLAMP sites have a large and politically powerful core group to support a CLAMP policy. The challenge to proponents of nuclear technologies will be to sustain this support and expand the base among those who clearly are less connected and receptive to new nearby sites.     

Exploring Neglected Dimensions of Social Policy: The SDW, Fiscal Welfare and the Exemplar of Local Taxation in England

Titmuss's Social Division of Welfare (SDW) thesis is a vitally important but much neglected element of social policy analysis. This article seeks to explore the SDW, with a particular focus on fiscal welfare. Fiscal welfare has been described as forming a hidden welfare state, and while taxation is one of the main ways in which governments affect the lives of citizens, studies of welfare pay remarkably little attention to its impact. Fiscal welfare is examined by using, as an exemplar, local taxation in England, a subject that itself is neglected within social policy. Local taxation in England is of interest because it illustrates the impact of a system of taxation on different groups of citizens, and how this can operate to the benefit of rich over poor citizens. This is because the current system is highly regressive, meaning that those on low and middle incomes spend proportionately more of their income paying the tax than do those on high incomes. What is of further interest is how within the debate about reform of local taxation, concern with regressivity becomes obscured and ceases to be the focus of attention. We are thus provided with an example of how fiscal welfare remains a hidden issue. The article concludes by arguing that social policy analysis needs to move beyond the narrow confines of social welfare and develop a broader understanding of welfare, based on the SDW.     

Con Job: An Estimate of Ex‐Felon Voter Turnout Using Document‐Based Data*

Objective. Ex‐felon voter turnout was estimated for the first time using government records rather than statistical models. Statistical models have estimated that 25–35 percent of eligible ex‐felons would vote in federal elections. Methods. Six‐hundred‐sixty recently released ex‐felons in Erie County, NY, who would have been legally eligible to register and vote in 2004 or 2005, were compared with data from the Erie County Board of Elections to determine whether they registered and voted in either 2004 or 2005. Results. Five percent this population of ex‐felons voted in either 2004 or 2005. Conclusions. Single‐digit turnout among ex‐felons raises questions about the assumptions underlying statistical estimates, and it also suggests that elections would have to be very close for ex‐felons to have an impact on the results.     

Assessing the Concept of the ‘Insecure‐Other’ Category in the Cassidy–Marvin Scheme: Changes Between 4 and 6 Years in the English and Romanian Adoptee Study

We set out to explore the meaning of the attachment categories in the Cassidy/Marvin strange situation procedure, as employed in the home, using data from a longitudinal study of children adopted into UK families up to the age of 42 months from Romanian institutions, and of adopted children without the experience of institutional care––both groups being assessed at 4 and 6 years of age. Inter‐rater reliability was found to be good. Security (meaning the use of the parent as a secure base and no negative behavior on reunion) was the modal categorical rating in both the institution‐reared and comparison groups, but the category of anomalous non‐normative behavior (meaning a lack of any ordered attachment behavior as covered by the standard ratings), previously labeled ‘insecure‐other’, was more common in the institution‐reared children. Because this was unassociated with the usual manifestations of insecurity (such as avoidance or resistance) and because it was largely evident in interactions with the stranger, it is concluded that the adjective ‘insecure’ was not appropriate. Although this ‘insecure‐other’ category was associated with disinhibited attachment as reported by parents (meaning a lack of differentiation among adults, a willingness to go off with strangers and a lack of checking back with parents in anxiety‐provoking situations), it did not prove to be a good index of disinhibited attachment because changes over time in the ‘insecure‐other’ category were not associated with changes in the rate of disinhibited attachment. Also, whereas the rate of ‘insecure‐other’ fell markedly in the institution‐reared group between 4 and 6 years of age, it rose in the comparison group, raising queries over its meaning.     

Competing for the diaspora's influence at home: party structure and transnational campaign activity in El Salvador

ABSTRACT

How do parties in migrant-sending countries engage with the diaspora? Migrants exercise an increasingly important voice in electoral politics in their home countries, though they often either cannot legally vote or vote in very low numbers, yet parties attempt to leverage the influence they believe migrants have over voters at home. However the degree and manner by which parties reach out to diaspora citizens varies widely. A case study of El Salvador points to party organisation as a determinant of variation among parties in diaspora campaigning, based on interviews with Salvadoran party elites in the U.S. and El Salvador, party documents, and historical comparison of campaign activities of El Salvador's two major parties, ARENA and FMLN, over three presidential elections and one mayoral election. FMLN, with a hierarchical model and base committee structure, more effectively mobilizes diaspora support while ARENA, with a horizontal model and sectoral structure, exhibits difficulties in party-diaspora coordination and largely makes indirect and symbolic references to diaspora issues.     

An exploratory study of acculturation among Muslims in Australia

Muslims constitute 2.2% of the Australian population. Given the current socio-political climate and the limited research, the present exploratory study explores the relationship between acculturation, ethnic identity, self-identity, generational status, religiosity, and demographics among adult Australian Muslims.

A cross-sectional convenience sample of 324 adult Australian Muslims completed either online or paper-based questionnaires in either English or Arabic. Recruitment was via convenience sampling and social media advertisements. Acculturation, ethnic identity (MEIM), religiosity, and demographic variables were measured.

The study sample was young and mostly female, with high religiosity levels. Acculturation was negatively correlated with ethnic identity. From multiple regression analysis, acculturation was predicted independently by religiosity (low), age (young), gender (male) and ethnic identity (low).

First generation Australian Muslims were older, had stronger ethnic identity and religiosity, and more commonly self-identified as non-Australian. By contrast second- and third-generation were more likely to self-identify as bicultural or Australian.

In summary, acculturation of Australian Muslims is influenced by multiple variables, particularly ethnic identity, religiosity, and generation; hence all these variables need to be included in policy regarding successful integration of migrants.     

A Level Playing Field: An Optimal Weighting Scheme of Dismissal Protection Characteristics

In collective redundancies, employers are forced to regard certain characteristics when deciding who to dismiss. This paper develops a procedure to derive an empirical‐based weighting scheme between protection characteristics in Germany (age, disability, dependencies, and tenure). Up to now, an objective weighting scheme is missing, and employers bargain with employee's representatives about the weighting of the characteristics. In the suggested procedure, the relationships of the four characteristics with reemployment probabilities and the quality of the new job are estimated. Then, the relevant outcome variable is chosen applying life satisfaction analysis. Finally, based on the empirical results, a weighting scheme for the characteristics is proposed, which serves as a guideline in the process of collective redundancies.