Studying Complexity of Model-based Clustering

Cluster analysis is a popular statistics and computer science technique commonly used in various areas of research. In this article, we investigate factors that can influence clustering performance in the model-based clustering framework. The four factors considered are the level of overlap, number of clusters, number of dimensions, and sample size. Through a comprehensive simulation study, we investigate model-based clustering in different settings. As a measure of clustering performance, we employ three popular classification indices capable of reflecting the degree of agreement in two partitioning vectors, thus making the comparison between the true and estimated classification vectors possible. In addition to studying clustering complexity, the performance of the three classification measures is evaluated.     

Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence

Most existing reduced-form macroeconomic multivariate time series models employ elliptical disturbances, so that the forecast densities produced are symmetric. In this article, we use a copula model with asymmetric margins to produce forecast densities with the scope for severe departures from symmetry. Empirical and skew t distributions are employed for the margins, and a high-dimensional Gaussian copula is used to jointly capture cross-sectional and (multivariate) serial dependence. The copula parameter matrix is given by the correlation matrix of a latent stationary and Markov vector autoregression (VAR). We show that the likelihood can be evaluated efficiently using the unique partial correlations, and estimate the copula using Bayesian methods. We examine the forecasting performance of the model for four U.S. macroeconomic variables between 1975:Q1 and 2011:Q2 using quarterly real-time data. We find that the point and density forecasts from the copula model are competitive with those from a Bayesian VAR. During the recent recession the forecast densities exhibit substantial asymmetry, avoiding some of the pitfalls of the symmetric forecast densities from the Bayesian VAR. We show that the asymmetries in the predictive distributions of GDP growth and inflation are similar to those found in the probabilistic forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Last, we find that unlike the linear VAR model, our fitted Gaussian copula models exhibit nonlinear dependencies between some macroeconomic variables. This article has online supplementary material.     

Cell Phone Survey Feasibility in The U.S.: Sampling and Calling Cell Numbers Versus Landline Numbers

In 2004, we conducted a nationwide dual frame survey of landlineand cell phone numbers to evaluate the feasibility of includingcell phone numbers in a random digit dial telephone survey.Households with both landline and cell phones were eligiblefor selection in both samples. This article describes our designand data collection methods; compares the results from the twosamples (with an emphasis on operational characteristics); andpresents the outcomes of two experimental manipulations designedto improve the cell phone response rate.     

Sampling Telephone Numbers and Adults, Interview Length, and Weighting in The California Health Interview Survey Cell Phone Pilot Study

This article describes several features included in a CaliforniaHealth Interview Survey cell phone pilot study that differ fromearlier cell phone surveys conducted in the United States. Onedifference is that the study used a screening design and onlyadults living in cell-only households were interviewed. Mostof the previous studies used dual frame designs. Another differencewas the development and implementation of a within-householdadult sampling procedure to cover adults when cell phones wereshared in the household. The study was also intended to determineif conducting a cell phone interview of the same scope and lengthas a regular telephone interview was feasible. Most previoussurveys were focused on cell phone topics and were shorter thanthe comparable landline surveys. We then explore some interestingproblems that arise in weighting a cell phone survey using ascreening design. We conclude with a discussion of planninga new cell phone survey in 2007 that incorporates findings fromthis study.     

Mitofsky Waksberg: Learning From The Past

Warren Mitofsky and Joseph Waksberg were two of the most influentialresearchers in telephone surveys and survey research methods.Their development of the Mitofsky–Waksberg method forrandom digit dialing sampling revolutionized telephone samplingand surveys. Jointly and separately, Waksberg and Mitofsky wereinstrumental in the development of many innovative methods andapplications. This article reviews some of their contributionsand discusses how their approaches to these problems may bea model for addressing issues that are being encountered currentlyin the United States in cell phone research.     

Where local and national evaluators meet: unintended threats to ethical evaluation practice

The ethical work of program evaluators is based on a covenant of honesty and transparency among stakeholders. Yet even under the most favorable evaluation conditions, threats to ethical standards exist and muddle that covenant. Unfortunately, ethical issues associated with different evaluation structures and contracting arrangements have received little attention in the evaluation research literature. This article focuses on the unintended ethical threats associated with multitiered evaluation contexts. After briefly reviewing the various frames through which evaluation theory and ethics are commonly viewed, we discuss ethical challenges associated with multitiered evaluation designs including examples drawn from our evaluation projects. The article concludes with specific findings and recommendations for evaluators, grantors, grantees, and researchers.     

Operationalizing environmental indicators for physical activity in older adults

This qualitative study describes environmental supports and barriers to physical activity in an older adult sample drawn from low- and high-walkable neighborhoods. Thirty-seven individuals age 55 and over were recruited and answered open-ended survey questions, with a subsample invited back to partake in a semistructured interview. Content analysis identified categories and themes linking perceptions of neighborhood-environment characteristics to activity. Emerging categories and themes did not differ across neighborhood walkability, so results are presented for both groups combined. Infrastructure was the most common category identified to encourage activity, specifically, well-maintained sidewalks, bike paths or lanes, and traffic control. Other categories of land use, landscape, and aesthetics were reported. Poorly maintained or missing sidewalks, crosswalks, bike paths or lanes, and traffic safety were categories that discouraged activity. In conclusion, the information obtained is helpful in solidifying which environmental characteristics are important to measure as they relate to activity behavior in an older adult population.     

Complexities in attracting and retaining direct support professionals

Recruiting and retaining direct support professionals (DSPs) remains essential to the full inclusion for persons with disabilities. Using a mixed-evaluation model, we measured DSPs' views versus those of their supervisors. DSPs expressed lower perceptions concerning their supervisors, satisfaction with their work situation, and environmental and safety factors. Focus groups provided insights into resolving issues related to compensation, work environment, and recruiting and retaining future DSPs. Motivating factors included wanting to be part of a helping community where all are valued. To improve their performance, DSPs stated their desire to understand the roles of managers and of the consumer. DSPs indicated that having career paths that provided advancement opportunities and direct contact with persons with disabilities were primary motivators.     

Multivariate process dispersion monitoring without subgrouping

The memory-type adaptive and non-adaptive control charts are among the best control charts for detecting small-to-moderate changes in the process parameter(s). In this paper, we propose the Crosier CUSUM (CCUSUM), EWMA, adaptive CCUSUM (ACCUSUM) and adaptive EWMA (AEWMA) charts for efficiently monitoring the changes in the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal process without subgrouping. Using extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the length characteristics of these control charts are computed. It turns out that the ACCUSUM and AEWMA charts perform uniformly and substantially better than the CCUSUM and EWMA charts when detecting a range of shift sizes in the covariance matrix. Moreover, the AEWMA chart outperforms the ACCUSUM chart. A real dataset is used to explain the implementation of the proposed control charts.     

Factors associated with 'feeling suicidal': the role of sexual identity

This paper examines factors associated with feeling suicidal in a large sample of urban men in Sydney and Melbourne, aged 18-50, including heterosexual, gay and bisexual men, HIV antibody positive and HIV antibody negative. As in previous research, sexuality (being homosexual or bisexual) was found to be a major predictor of suicidality. The research went some way towards explaining the close relationship between feeling suicidal and sexual orientation. Sexuality interacts with feeling bad in that, once men feel moderately bad/depressed, they are more likely to feel suicidal if they are homosexual or bisexual than if they are heterosexual. In addition, the research found that experience of verbal abuse and physical assault (harassment) increased feeling suicidal for both heterosexual and gay/bisexual men, not just for homosexual men as suggested by previous research, and that social isolation in the form of living alone is a further risk factor. Seeking counseling help and taking sexual risks were also independently associated with feeling suicidal. These actions may result from feeling suicidal rather than the reverse, and their association with feeling suicidal warrants further research. Many of the 46 independent variables examined in the research, including HIV antibody status and closeness to the HIV/ AIDS epidemic, were related to feeling suicidal only through their association with being gay/bisexual. Celibacy and general risk taking were not related to feeling suicidal in this study.