Calculating the total vote where the district magnitude is greater than one: A test of some algorithms using British local election data

Electoral analysis using aggregate data relies on the availability of accurate voting statistics. One vital piece of information, often missing from official electoral returns, particularly British local government elections, is the total number of valid ballot papers. This figure is essential for the calculation of electoral turnout. When voters have a single vote and official information about the number of ballot papers issued is missing, a figure for the total vote can still be derived. However, local elections in Britain frequently use a system of multiple-member wards, where voters have as many votes as there are seats to be filled. In such cases, calculating the total vote and, hence, the turnout does present a real problem. It cannot be assumed that all voters will use their full quota of votes or that voters will cast a ballot in favour of a single party. This paper develops and tests diff erent algorithms for calculating the total vote in such circumstances. We conclude that the accuracy of an algorithm is closely related to the structure of party competition. The findings of this paper have a number of important implications. First, the difficulties in calculating the turnout in multiple-member wards are identified. This will inform the debate about public participation in the local electoral process. Second, the method for deriving a figure for the total vote has an important bearing on a number of other statistics widely employed in electoral analysis.     

Statistical Methods and Graphical Displays for Analyzing How the Association Between Two Qualitative Variables Differs Among Countries, Among Groups, Or Over Time: A Modified Regression-Type Approach

Many interesting sociological questions pertain to how the association between two variables depends on a third variable. In sociological applications, the third variable often pertains to countries, to subgroups of a population, or to time periods. We propose a regression-type approach that specifies that the log-odds- ratios that describe the two-way association of interest are a linear function of latent scores for the third variable. Additive and multiplicative models currently in use by researchers are special cases of the regression-type model. To illustrate the utility of the regression-type approach, we apply this approach to analyze (1) data on occupational mobility in the United States, Britain, and Japan (comparing mobility in these countries) and (2) data on the association between religion and voting behavior in U.S. presidential elections from 1968 to 1992 (comparing this association in the different elections). We also introduce here graphical displays that can be used to obtain worthwhile information about goodness-of-fit and to aid in substantive interpretation.     

Media Technologies, Images of Drugs, and an Evocative Telepresence

I regard electronic media technologies as framing devices for how viewers perceive issues associated with illegal drugs. Controllers of electronic media technologies produce and disseminate images of illegal drugs and users of such drugs to which viewers respond. People who control the images of electronic media production create an evocative telepresence, or a visual context that relies on appeals to authority and emotion. However, viewers do not merely respond to images of illegal drugs; rather, they actively interpret such images and draw their own conclusions. To demonstrate the complex relationship between electronic stimuli and viewer responses, I report on a classroom experiment comparing those who saw and heard a heroin user with those who only heard this user. I also report findings from student perceptions of and reactions to four drug films. Results of the experiment and the readings of films indicate that viewers, especially those who can see and hear electronic displays, are sophisticated consumers who respond to immediate stimuli while making reference to distal stimuli. In the main, I contend that electronic images of illegal drugs and users in an evocative telepresence are powerful stimuli, but they do not cause viewer perceptions.     

Long-term marriages: A critical review

Research guidelines are proposed for the study of long-term marriages based on a critical review of existing studies. Current problems in the collection and analysis of the data include the lack of agreement about the minimum length of a long-term relationship, the failure to make couple comparisons, or to follow samples longitudinally. In addition, the response rate is uniformly low and the variables studied are not consistent. Future research should gather data about couples, not just individuals, and should utilize standardized measures. It is important to begin to build a comprehensive and comparable data base of long-term marital relationships.     

Blacks, whites, and attitudes towards abortion

This article examines patterns of black and white support forabortion from 1972 to 1980. The findings reveal that black-whitedifferences are present on the abortion issue. Many of the differencesare due to the different demographic characteristics of blacksand whites and the greater degree of religiosity of blacks.     

The increase in marital status differences in mortality up to the oldest age in seven European countries, 1990-99

We investigate mortality differentials by marital status among older age groups using a database of mortality rates by marital status at ages 40 and over for seven European countries with 1 billion person-years of exposure. The mortality advantage of married people, both men and women, continues to increase up to at least the age group 85-89, the oldest group we are able to consider. We find the largest absolute differences in mortality levels between marital status groups are at high ages, and that absolute differentials are: (i) greater for men than for women; (ii) similar in magnitude across countries; (iii) increase steadily with age; and (iv) are greatest at older age. We also find that the advantage enjoyed by married people increased over the 1990s in almost all cases. We note that results for groups such as older divorced women need to be interpreted with caution.     

A Weighted Least Squares Approach to Levene's Test of Homogeneity of Variance

In 1960 Levene suggested a potentially robust test of homogeneity of variance based on an ordinary least squares analysis of variance of the absolute values of mean-based residuals. Levene's test has since been shown to have inflated levels of significance when based on the F-distribution, and tests a hypothesis other than homogeneity of variance when treatments are unequally replicated, but the incorrect formulation is now standard output in several statistical packages. This paper develops a weighted least squares analysis of variance of the absolute values of both mean-based and median-based residuals. It shows how to adjust the residuals so that tests using the F -statistic focus on homogeneity of variance for both balanced and unbalanced designs. It shows how to modify the F -statistics currently produced by statistical packages so that the distribution of the resultant test statistic is closer to an F-distribution than is currently the case. The weighted least squares approach also produces component mean squares that are unbiased irrespective of which variable is used in Levene's test. To complete this aspect of the investigation the paper derives exact second-order moments of the component sums of squares used in the calculation of the mean-based test statistic. It shows that, for large samples, both ordinary and weighted least squares test statistics are equivalent; however they are over-dispersed compared to an F variable.