Demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa: How big will the economic dividend be?

In mid-demographic-transition, many Asian countries enjoyed a large demographic ‘dividend’: extra economic growth owing to falling dependant/workforce ratios, or slower natural increase, or both. We estimate the dividend, 1985–2025, in sub-Saharan Africa and its populous countries. Dependency and natural increase peaked around 1985, 20 years after Asia. The UN projects an acceleration of the subsequent slow falls but disregards slowish declines in young-age mortality and thus, we argue, overestimates future fertility decline. Even if one accepts their projection, arithmetical and econometric evidence suggests an annual, if not total, dividend well below Asia's. The dividend arises more from falling dependency than reduced natural increase, and could be increased by accelerating the fertility decline (e.g., by reducing young-age mortality) or by employing a larger workforce productively. Any dividend from transition apart, low saving in much of Africa (unlike Asia) means that, given likely natural increase, current consumption per person is unsustainable because it depletes capital per person.     

The differential contributions of teen drinking homophily to new and existing friendships: An empirical assessment of assortative and proximity selection mechanisms

Alcohol use is pervasive in adolescence. Though most research is concerned with how friends influence drinking, alcohol is also important for connecting teens to one another. Prior studies have not distinguished between new friendship creation, and existing friendship durability, however. We argue that accounting for distinctions in creation–durability processes is critical for understanding the selection mechanisms drawing drinkers into homophilous friendships, and the social integration that results. In order to address these issues, we applied stochastic actor based models of network dynamics to National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health data. Adolescents only modestly prefer new friendships with others who drinker similarly, but greatly prefer friends who indirectly connect them to homophilous drinkers. These indirect homophilous drinker relationships are shorter lived, however, and suggest that drinking is a social focus that connects adolescents via proximity, rather than assortativity. These findings suggest that drinking leads to more situational and superficial social integration.     

Shattered Spaces. Encountering Jewish Ruins in Postwar Germany and Poland

David P. Henige, The Chronology of Oral Tradition: Quest for a Chimera (1974), x+265 (Clarendon Press, Oxford, no price).

Georges Dupeux, French Society 1789‐1870 (1976), ix+294 (Methuen, £7.50, paperback £3.90).

Jürgen Schlumbohm, Freiheit ‐ Die Anfänge der bürgerlichen Emanzipationsbewegung in Deutschland im Spiegel ihres Leitwortes (ca. 1760‐ca. 1800) (1975), 299 (Schwann, Dusseldorf, 38 DM). (Freedom ‐ The beginnings of the movement for the emancipation of the bourgeoisie in Germany in the changing light of its watchword.)

Jens Engberg, Dansk Guldalder, eller opr?ret i tugt‐ rasp‐ og forbedringshuset (1973), 190 (Rhodos, Copenhagen, D.kr. 52). (Danish Golden Age: disturbances in the penitentiary and houses of correction.)

Richard D. Altick, Victorian People and Ideas (1974), xii+338 (Dent, £4.50).

P. N. Backstrom, Christian Socialism and Cooperation in Victorian England (1974), vii+238 (Croom Helm, £5.95).

W. Hamish Fraser, Trade Unions and Society: The Struggle for Acceptance, 1850–1880 (1974), 292 (George Allen &; Unwin, £5.95).

Nancy J. Weiss, The National Urban League, 1910–1940 (1974), xiv+402 (Oxford University Press, New York, £7.25).

Arthur Marwick, War and Social Change in the Twentieth Century (1974), x+258 (Macmillan, £5.00, paperback £2.50).     

Giving Voice to Research Participants: Should IRBs Hear From Research Participant Representatives?

The current decision-making model for the review of human research contains inadequate mechanisms to ensure that the interests and perspectives of research participants are considered by Institutional Review Boards, whose decisions may profoundly affect the safety and well-being of participants. As a result, this model is far from being optimized to realize Institutional Review Boards' principal mandate and undermines the credibility of the research review process. This article proposes a procedural mechanism that would ameliorate these systemic deficiencies by allowing “research participant representatives” to give voice to participants during the research review process.     

Playing,Sitting Out,and Observing the Game: An Investigation of Faculty Members’ Perspectives on Political Behavior in Ethical Decision Making

Ethical dilemmas are inherently ambiguous, complex, and ill-defined. Additionally, these dilemmas involve multiple stakeholders. These characteristics may induce political behavior as a resolution tactic. Thus, the goal of the present effort was to investigate perspectives on politics among researchers in an ethical decision-making context. A qualitative analysis of interviews with university faculty members revealed that faculty members’ perspectives on political behavior in an ethical decision-making context fall into a number of categories, including positive, negative, and realistic views of political activity. The implications of these varying perspectives on ethical decision making are discussed.     

A Comparison of Address-Based Sampling (ABS) Versus Random-Digit Dialing (RDD) for General Population Surveys

Valid and reliable public health data are becoming more difficultto obtain through random-digit dial (RDD) telephone surveys.As a result, researchers are evaluating different survey designs(i.e., sampling frame and survey mode combinations) as complementsor alternatives to RDD. Traditionally, mail surveys of the generalpublic have been limited due to a lack of a complete samplingframe of households. Recent advances in electronic record keeping,however, have allowed researchers to develop a sample from aframe of addresses (e.g., the U.S. Postal Service Delivery SequenceFile, which appears to provide coverage which rivals or possiblyexceeds that obtained through RDD sampling methods). To testthe use of this frame for surveying adults aged 18 years andolder across a wide geographic area, a pilot study was conductedas part of the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System(BRFSS). The pilot compared use of a traditional, RDD telephonesurvey methodology to an approach using a mail version of thequestionnaire completed by a random sample of households drawnfrom an address-based frame. The findings indicate that themail survey approach can achieve higher response rates in low-response-ratestates (<40%) than RDD (particularly when two mailings aresent). Additionally, the address frame with mail survey designprovides access to cell phone only households and offers costsavings over the telephone approach. The resulting sample, however,significantly overrepresents non-Hispanic whites and peoplewith higher levels of education.     

Condom use negotiation in heterosexual African American adults: responses to types of social power-based strategies

This study examined gender differences and preferences in the use of and response to six different styles of condom use negotiation with a hypothetical sexual partner of the opposite gender. Participants were 51 heterosexually active African American adults attending an inner-city community center. Participants completed a semistructured qualitative interview in which they were presented with six negotiation strategies based on Raven's 1992 Power/Interaction Model of Interpersonal Influence. Results showed that female participants responded best to referent, reward, and legitimate strategies, and worst to informational tactics. Male participants responded best to reward strategies, and worst to coercion to use condoms. Further, responses given by a subset of participants indicated that use of negotiation tactics involving coercion to use condoms may result in negative or angry reactions. Response to strategies may vary with the value of the relationship as viewed by the target of negotiation. Implications for HIV prevention efforts are discussed.