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31.
We propose a Bayesian approach for inference in a dynamic disequilibrium model. To circumvent the difficulties raised by the Maddala and Nelson (1974) specification in the dynamic case, we analyze a dynamic extended version of the disequilibrium model of Ginsburgh et al. (1980). We develop a Gibbs sampler based on the simulation of the missing observations. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated by an empirical analysis of the Polish credit market, for which we conduct a specification search using the posterior deviance criterion of Spiegelhalter et al. (2002). 相似文献
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33.
The Present study investigated by effects of two sets of marital interventions taken from Emotionally Focused Therapy (EFT) and Cognitive Marital Therapy (CMT) on level of marital intimacy, dyadic trust, and dyadic adjustment. It was hypothesized that both EFT and CMT would have a positive effect on levels of intimacy, trust, and adjustment as compared to a wait-list control group and that there would be a differential effect in favor of EFT as compared to CMT. Thirty-six couples free of marital distress and seeking to enhance theor intimate relationship were randomaly assigned to EFT, CMT, or a wai-list control group. Therapists' interventions were monitored and found to be faithfully implemented. Groups were equivalent on demographic variables and the quality of the therapeutic alliance. Both EFT and CMT group posttest means were found to be significantly higher than controls on the self-report measures of intimacy, Observational measures of intimacy revealed differential effects in favor of EFT as comopared to CMT at posttest. At a 10-week follow-up, EFT group means were significantly higher than CMT on self-reported intimacy and adjustment. 相似文献
34.
Line Nadeau Réjean Tessier Michel Boivin Francine Lefebvre Philippe Robaey 《Social Development》2003,12(2):235-248
This article evaluates the contributions of birth status (defined by gestational age and birthweight) and family adversity at birth and at age 7 to explaining behavior problems at age 7. The behaviors of 96 extremely preterm and very low birth‐weight children and 66 full‐term children were assessed in a school setting by peers, teachers and parents. The results show that a significant relationship exists between birth status and isolation and social withdrawal problems as well as between birth status and social immaturity and inattention problems. Family adversity at birth has a significant contribution to aggressive behaviors reported by the three sources whereas, at age 7, this index is associated only with aggressive behaviors and social immaturity problems reported by parents. In conclusion, the results of the present study qualify the findings of studies that suggest that at school age, the effect of prematurity decreases and that behavior problems are explained chiefly by family environment characteristics. Our results indicate that the findings must take into account the cohort studied, the environmental measures used, the type of behaviors assessed as well as the type of informants. 相似文献
35.
Our study focuses on maritime pilotage in seven European countries and analyzes the level of job satisfaction and its predictors.
Like most existing studies in the field of job satisfaction, we show that job satisfaction is an outcome of the work of maritime
pilots. Stressful working conditions, such as working unsocial hours and irregular working patterns, create strains that together
with intervening factors related to work, family, or the work environment ultimately reduce job satisfaction. However, our
results indicate that although negative physical and social consequences are important, they are neither the strongest nor
the only variables determining job satisfaction. Another effect seems more important in European maritime pilotage: Job satisfaction
is instead a predictor of how much pressure and stress pilots can handle. Despite health problems and a reduction in their
quality of life due to working unusual hours, most maritime pilots do not regret their choice of profession. Factors to ameliorate
the working conditions are also identified. The most important parameters include alterations in working time systems, working
conditions which minimize physical strain, fairness regarding payment, flexibility within the compensation system, an intensification
of the possibilities for involvement and participation, an extended degree of co-determination, and the distribution of the
ownership of the pilot stations. 相似文献
36.
37.
Michel Bozon 《Revue europeenne de demographie》1991,7(2):171-190
La formation des couples est un moment crucial de la reproduction sociale. Pour établir le bilan des transactions sur le marché matrimonial, trois méthodes ont été utilisées : la comparaison des positions sociales des conjoints, la comparaison des caractéristiques sociales de leurs parents, la comparaison des trajectoires sociales des conjoints. La formation d'un couple correspond le plus souvent à la conjonction de deux trajectoires parallèles, ce qui a pour effet de conforter les positions acquises ou d'accompagner les évolutions engagées. Dans d'autres cas, plus rares, le mariage peut accélérer sensiblement la transition à un nouveau statut, ou au contraire freiner voire inverser le déclin d'une trajectoire sociale.Marriage is a crucial stage in social reproduction. To establish the outcome of transactions in the marriage market, three methods have been used: comparison of the social positions of the marriage partners; comparison of the social characteristics of their parents; and comparison of the social careers of the partners. Usually a marriage represents the conjunction of two parallel social careers, the effect of which is to consolidate the positions acquired or to support the evolutions in progress. In more rare cases, the marriage can either appreciably accelerate the transition to a new status, or slow down and even reverse the decline of a social career.
Cet article est la version révisée et enrichie d'une communication présentée au IIIe séminaire franco-soviétique de démographie, à Bordeaux (10–14 octobre 1988). 相似文献
Cet article est la version révisée et enrichie d'une communication présentée au IIIe séminaire franco-soviétique de démographie, à Bordeaux (10–14 octobre 1988). 相似文献
38.
Goulet ED Mélançon MO Dionne IJ Aubertin-Leheudre M Aubertin Leheudre M 《Journal of aging and physical activity》2005,13(3):314-326
It is unclear whether long-term aerobic (AT) or resistance (RT) training can improve insulin sensitivity (IS) beyond the residual effect of the last training bout in older women (54-78 years). Therefore, a group of nonobese, healthy older women underwent 6 months of AT (n = 8) or RT (n = 10), and the authors measured IS 4 days after the last training bouts using the hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp technique. Women trained 3 days/week. AT consisted of 25- to 60-min sessions of walking/jogging at 60-95% of maximal heart rate. RT consisted of three sets of nine exercises repeated 10 times at 80% of 1 repetition maximum. AT decreased fat mass, whereas both AT and RT increased fat-free mass. Neither training program, however, improved absolute or relative rates of glucose disposal. The authors therefore concluded that nonobese, healthy older women should perform AT or RT on a daily basis in order to improve IS and maintain the improvement. 相似文献
39.
40.
In this paper, we propose a method for testing absolutely regular and possibly nonstationary nonlinear time-series, with application to general AR-ARCH models. Our test statistic is based on a marked empirical process of residuals which is shown to converge to a Gaussian process with respect to the Skohorod topology. This testing procedure was first introduced by Stute [Nonparametric model checks for regression, Ann. Statist. 25 (1997), pp. 613–641] and then widely developed by Ngatchou-Wandji [Weak convergence of some marked empirical processes: Application to testing heteroscedasticity, J. Nonparametr. Stat. 14 (2002), pp. 325–339; Checking nonlinear heteroscedastic time series models, J. Statist. Plann. Inference 133 (2005), pp. 33–68; Local power of a Cramer-von Mises type test for parametric autoregressive models of order one, Compt. Math. Appl. 56(4) (2008), pp. 918–929] under more general conditions. Applications to general AR-ARCH models are given. 相似文献