A new approach to stock price modelling and the efficiency of the Italian stock exchange

In this paper, we propose a new model of asset prices which takes account of the investment strategies of three different kinds of agents: the market-makers, who operate rationally on the basis of the asset fundamentals, the smart buy-and-sell agents, who intervene when the prices reach particular levels and the non-smart buy-and-sell agents, who trade infrequently, mainly following psychological motivations. The different behavior of these groups of agents can determine temporary inefficiences on financial markets and we show that, by considering these inefficiences, it is possible to improve forecasting of asset prices.     

An Examination of the Perceptions of Organizational Politics Model: Replication and Extension

This study examined the Perceptions of PoliticsModel (Ferris, Russ, & Fandt, 1989) in a three-phaseprocess. In the first phase, the model was examinedusing Anderson and Gerbing's (1988) two-step approach to structural equations modeling. Themodel was tested on data collected from 786 employees ofa state government agency and 469 employees of anelectric utility cooperative. Results from this phase indicated that the model had acceptablefit and was more parsimonious than any of the competingmodels to which it was compared. In the second phase,understanding as a moderator of the relationships between perceptions of organizational politicsand several outcome variables was examined. Resultsindicated that understanding only moderated the outcomerelationship between politics and job satisfaction, not intent to turnover or job anxiety. Finally,in phase three, the additional outcome variables oforganizational satisfaction, supervisor effectiveness,and self-reported individual performance were included in an effort to expand the Ferris et al. (1989)framework. Additionally, the moderating effects ofunderstanding on the relationships between perceptionsof politics and these new outcome variables were explored. Results from the final step indicatedthat adding the new outcome variables increased theparsimonyof the model without decreasing model fit. Withrespect to the moderating effects, only thepolitics-performance relationship was moderated byunderstanding.Allof these results are discussed in light of theirimplications for future research.     

Revealing representations of jazz in the Weimar Republic

While in America and elsewhere jazz made its debut in the middle and late 1910s, the Weimar Republic (1919–1933) remained relatively isolated from jazz until 1920. Touring groups opted for travel in economically and politically stable areas. Until the first live jazz concert in 1924, Germans learned of jazz through sheet music, recordings, and soldiers returning from World War I. Lasting records of jazz culture exist due to the advances in sound recording, photography, and publishing. Jazz images from the Weimar Republic offer a glimpse into the triangular relationship of ethnic African and African-American jazz artists with jazz culture and with German audiences. Many images de-emphasize the African-American jazz artists by using stereotypical tropes, masking the artist, and avoiding physical portrayals of the artist. These techniques reflect the adaptation of jazz culture for audiences within a nation recovering economic and political stability.     

Optimal design for epidemiological studies subject to designed missingness

In large epidemiological studies, budgetary or logistical constraints will typically preclude study investigators from measuring all exposures, covariates and outcomes of interest on all study subjects. We develop a flexible theoretical framework that incorporates a number of familiar designs such as case control and cohort studies, as well as multistage sampling designs. Our framework also allows for designed missingness and includes the option for outcome dependent designs. Our formulation is based on maximum likelihood and generalizes well known results for inference with missing data to the multistage setting. A variety of techniques are applied to streamline the computation of the Hessian matrix for these designs, facilitating the development of an efficient software tool to implement a wide variety of designs.     

Specialist police units and the joint investigation of child abuse

The last ten years have witnessed a significant shift in the police response to investigations of child abuse. One of the most ‘visible’ manifestations of this shift has been the establishment of specialist units where children can be interviewed, medical examinations conducted and, in some cases, overnight accommodation made available to children and their non-abusive carers. The history of these units in Scotland is summarized in this article, together with a brief outline of their remit and some of the current issues facing them. A closer examination of the way in which Scottish units have responded to the issue of joint child abuse investigations with social workers is made, drawing on evidence from research conducted in Scotland.     

Beyond Regional Institutions: Widening Unemployment Differentials in Italy

Abstract. Building on Layard and Jackman's framework, we propose a simple model to analyse the relation between labour productivity and unemployment differentials in Italy and present some panel data evidence to support the theoretical predictions of the model. The empirical analysis strongly suggests that the productivity differential is one of the main factors driving the dynamics of the unemployment differential in Italy.     

Community and Individual Factors Associated with Cigarette Smoking Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men

Young men who have sex with men (YMSM) have higher rates of cigarette smoking than their heterosexual counterparts, yet few studies have examined factors associated with cigarette smoking among YMSM. The present study sought to understand how different types of gay community connection (i.e., gay community identification and involvement, gay bar/club attendance) were associated with smoking among YMSM recruited through venue-based sampling in Los Angeles, California (N = 526). Structural equation modeling was used to isolate direct and indirect effects of gay community connection on smoking through cognitive and psychological mediators (i.e., psychological distress, health values, internalized homophobia). Findings indicate YMSM cigarette smoking prevention and intervention must be tailored to address the direct and indirect influences of the gay community.     

Brazilian version of an assessment tool for the evaluation of work organizational aspects (AOT) by the NIOSH WMSD Research Consortium: translation and application in industrial sectors

Work organization affects the production of a company as well as the health of employees. It is a challenge to create sustainable production systems with the least harm to the health. An observational assessment tool was developed by the NIOSH--WMSD Research Consortium and adapted by the SHARP study. The objectives were to translate this assessment tool into Brazilian Portuguese (as the Avalia??o de Aspectos Organizacionais do Trabalho--AOT) and to evaluate its applicability in an industrial setting. The AOT final translated version was obtained after a consensus by the research team. Difficulties arose in applying the translated version due to technical terms with no direct equivalents in Portuguese, nonexcluding or similar alternatives, and questions that gave room for various interpretations, besides the great complexity of the tasks performed in the sectors. Despite that, the results suggest that AOT was sensitive for discriminating differences between sectors. Nevertheless, for better application of this tool in complex industrial environments, it is necessary: training and consensus among evaluators, familiarity with organizational aspects of the occupational settings evaluated. Also for assuring the internal validity of the analysis, might be necessary, the creation of subdivisions in the sectors evaluated if the tasks vary significantly intra-sector. The present report can help to understand the difficulties inherent to the evaluation of organizational aspects on a collective level and also the possible implications related to the translation of this assessment into other languages.     

Are cost-inclusive evaluations worth the effort?

Relative costs are as important as relative effectiveness when choosing between program alternatives or among a set of programs competing for scarce funds. Nevertheless, the number of cost-inclusive evaluations remains comparatively small. This article presents the results of three first-time cost-inclusive evaluations each performed by an experienced evaluator. Each evaluator performed a different type of cost-inclusive evaluation using different tobacco control programs as examples: "standard" cost-effectiveness analysis, threshold or break-even analysis, and a simulation model. Results are presented in terms of the challenges faced, and informational and insight benefits gained, as well as in terms of program cost-effectiveness. All three evaluators agreed that the benefits from performing cost-inclusive evaluations are well worth time and effort involved. They also found that this type of evaluation provides abundant information that can be used to improve program effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.