Discriminating between the Poisson and negative binomial distributions:an application to goal scoring in association football

Negative binomial and Poisson distributions are fitted to data on scores in Association Football for the seasons 1946–47 to 1983–84. There are strong grounds for preferring the negative binomial up to 1970; thereafter the Poisson seems adequate. Simplification is achieved by fitting the negative binomial with a common parameter. The analyses are set in the context of previous applications and interpretations in the area. Different models giving rise to the negative binomial or Poisson are investigated and some support found for models not previously advanced in this context. Notwith-standing the success of such exercises some scepticism is expressed about the interpretations placed on previous analyses.     

Estimating likelihoods for spatio-temporal models using importance sampling

This paper describes how importance sampling can be applied to estimate likelihoods for spatio-temporal stochastic models of epidemics in plant populations, where observations consist of the set of diseased individuals at two or more distinct times. Likelihood computation is problematic because of the inherent lack of independence of the status of individuals in the population whenever disease transmission is distance-dependent. The methods of this paper overcome this by partitioning the population into a number of sectors and then attempting to take account of this dependence within each sector, while neglecting that between-sectors. Application to both simulated and real epidemic data sets show that the techniques perform well in comparison with existing approaches. Moreover, the results confirm the validity of likelihood estimates obtained elsewhere using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.     

No one above suspicion: Talcott parsons under surveillance

This article presents details, obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, of an extensive investigation carried out by the Federal Bureau of Investigation into the background and activities of Talcott Parsons. In 1952, following allegations that Parsons was the leader of a Communist Party cell at Harvard University, J. Edgar Hoover authorized a security-type investigation of Parsons; it continued for two years and was conducted throughout the United States and in at least seven European nations. Parsons was eventually cleared of all accusations, but FBI scrutiny of his activities continued on an intermittent basis for at least another thirteen years. Possible influences on Parsons’ scholarship and implications for the sociology of knowledge are also discussed.     

Nonlethal intimate partner violence: examining race, gender, and income patterns

The correlation between race of victim and intimate partner violence (IPV) is examined. Previous research showing a relationship between Black victims and higher levels of violence were based on uni-variate examinations and often do not consider other important factors. This paper presents national estimates of IPV by victim's race using the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), 1993-1999. The estimates based only on race are then disaggregated to account for the victim's gender and household income. Uni-variate findings demonstrate that victim's race is significantly related to rates of intimate partner violence. However, after controlling for both victim's gender and annual household income, the victim's race is no longer significant. The importance of understanding intimate partner violence through a person's socioeconomic status rather than race is discussed.     

Concepts of Risk in Relation to Organizational Structure and Functioning within the Personal Social Services and Probation

The main argument of this paper is that personal social services, including probation, at both a policy and practice level are increasingly focused on issues of risk. We postulate that risk assessment, risk management, the monitoring of risk and risk-taking itself are rapidly becoming the dominant raison d'être of such agencies, thus supplanting ideologies of meeting need or welfare provision. In turn they have become key to priority setting and rationing, the basis for organizational rationales and structures, the central focus for professional activity and accountability, and measuring quality. Thus an analysis of risk as an organizing principle offers fundamental insights into the rapidly changing nature and organization of statutory social work and probation. There is very little literature that focuses on risk across the spectrum of services. Risk analysis, as such, is most developed in the criminal justice and child protection fields. However, the mental health literature, being centrally preoccupied with notions of dangerousness, is quickly adopting risk terminology. Apart from work on elder abuse, literature on child welfare and community care has been framed in terms of need, issues of risk only coming to the fore around potential admission to residential care. We contend that as issues of rationing and accountability become more dominant, so do concerns with risk. Thus we predict the extension of notions of risk as central organizing principles throughout the social services and probation.     

Involving managers in system-improvement planning

The planning of an organization is conceptualized as two separate but complementary processes. One of these two, namely system-improvement planning—which is concerned with changing the nature of the ongoing activities of the organization with a view to improving them—is generally neglected or poorly performed. It is suggested here that the reason for this neglect is the prevailing organizational philosophy which inhibits system-improvement planning. An alternative philosophy would be required for its effective implementation. But initially structural changes to support the new philosophy would have to be introduced.     

The reliability of environmental measures of the college alcohol environment

Much of what we know about students' drinking patterns and problems related to alcohol use is based on survey research. Although local and national survey data are important to alcohol-prevention projects, they do not sufficiently capture the complexity of the alcohol environment. Environmental prevention approaches to alcohol-related problems have been shown to be effective in community settings and researchers have begun to study and adapt such approaches for use on college campuses. Many environmental approaches require systematic scanning of the campus alcohol environment. This study assessed the inter-rater reliability of two environmental scanning tools (a newspaper content analysis form and a bulletin analysis form) designed to identify alcohol-related advertisements targeting college students. Inter-rater reliability for these forms varied across different rating categories and ranged from poor to excellent. Suggestions for future research are addressed.     

What helps people with bipolar affective disorder succeed in employment: a grounded theory approach

The present study used a qualitative research design to unfold those contextual factors which influence vocational outcomes amongst people with bipolar disorder (BD). The data for this qualitative study was collated using a grounded theory approach because of its particular relevance to the study's aims i.e., to propose a theory grounded in the data that provided an account of the vocational integration process people with BD go through. The emerging theory consists of two over-arching principles that determine an individual's readiness to join the workforce: i) recovery from an acute phase of BD and ii) goodness of fit between the individual, support, job and wider contextual components. The emerging theory is in general agreement with those issues discussed in the literature. The present study also highlights the importance of maintaining a sense of hope and how self-determination may help individuals achieve their vocational goals. The credibility of these findings was strengthened by the method of triangulation of data interpretation and sources.     

如何最大程度地利用压缩气体——气体减压阀的作用

压缩气体供应商竭尽其所能供应气体产品以满足用户对气体纯度、混合精确度和其他特殊要求。大多数气体通过传统的高压气瓶传输,而另一些气体通过容器或者是小型容器或真空瓶传输。不论哪一种运输和存储方法,用户都必须对这些气体进行处理、管理和分配。在这个过程中,气体会与不同的设备系统接触,而这些设备和系统会保持或者降低其纯度。本文讨论了气体减压阀使用材料、选择标准、注意事项和其他与其相关的问题。     

Similarities and Differences between Leadership and Management: High‐Performance Competencies in the British Royal Navy

This paper describes the research, analysis and development of a model clarifying the similarities and differences in competencies and personality factors 1 associated with effective Leadership and Management in the Royal Navy. A questionnaire study was conducted on a sample of 261 Officers and Ratings (Sailors). Their performance was rated through the organization's rigorous appraisal process, whilst competency and personality data were gathered through the Occupational Personality Questionnaire and the Leadership Dimensions Questionnaire. The results identify the common and unique relevance of specific competencies and personality factors and so provide an illuminating insight into the differences between the constructs of leadership and management. The critical factors related to effective leadership and management performance are also identified.