Government Sanctioned “Tight” and “Loose” Slot Machines: How Having Multiple Versions of the Same Slot Machine Game May Impact Problem Gambling

In Ontario, Canada, the regulator approves identical looking slot machine games with different payback percentages. We gained access to the design documents (called PAR Sheets) used to program these different versions of the same slots game and ran Gambler’s Ruin simulations of 2,000 first-time players who each arrived with a $100 bankroll and played either the 85 or 98% version of the same game until broke. Simulations revealed that the typical (median) player’s experience did not differ significantly between versions. However the payback percentage affected the experience of players in the upper tails of the distributions with those in the 98% version having dramatically more total spins, winning spins, entries into the “bonus mode”, and “hand pays” (a win of $100 bankroll and played either the 85 or 98% version of the same game until broke. Simulations revealed that the typical (median) player’s experience did not differ significantly between versions. However the payback percentage affected the experience of players in the upper tails of the distributions with those in the 98% version having dramatically more total spins, winning spins, entries into the “bonus mode”, and “hand pays” (a win of 125 or more on a given spin). Most importantly, the number of simulated players who had a maximum peak balance in excess of $1,000 rose tenfold—from 5 in the 85% version to 54 in the 98% version. The results are discussed in terms of the Pathways Model of Problem and Pathological Gambling especially in terms of behavioural conditioning, cognitive beliefs, and early big wins. It may well be that those machines that are on the surface the “fairest” to the gambler, actually pose the most risk for ensuing gambling problems.     

Revolution,war and modernization: Population policy and fertility change in Iran

Fertility trends in Iran over recent decades can be plausibly related to a number of causal factors. Population policy shifts were quite marked, and were related to political upheaval and war, which influenced both official policy and popular perceptions of the nation’s need for children. A range of developmental factors were also important. The key fertility trends to be explained include the rise to an exceptionally high level in the early 1980s (a TFR of just below 7), and the speed of the subsequent decline to a TFR of about 2.7 in 1996. As well as estimating the proximate determinants of these trends, the paper sets them in their political and developmental context. Iran’s fertility trends are then compared with those of Islamic countries of North Africa and West Asia to gain additional insights into possible causal factors. An adequate explanation of fertility change in Iran needs to draw on elements of a number of theories of fertility transition.     

Levels of urbanization in the world’s countries: testing consistency of estimates based on national definitions

Estimates of urbanization levels for all countries, as published in the United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, are not comparable across countries because they are based on national definitions of urbanization, which vary greatly across countries. We construct alternative estimates of urbanization that are comparable across countries, to use these estimates to point out definitional problems or outlying countries with interesting urban characteristics. The alternative estimates are constructed using variables that are associated with urbanization, as well as a categorical variable that summarizes the urban definition used in the country. We find that among the 181 countries included in the analysis, 21 % have a restrictive definition, and 31 % a generous definition of urbanization. In 2000, the difference between the alternative estimate and the UN estimate was more than 10 % for 67 countries. An examination of six countries with surprisingly low or high reported levels of urbanization, as compared the alternative estimates, highlights issues with the plausibility of the official estimate. We conclude that comparison of urbanization estimates across countries should be treated with care, given the wide range of definitions used. To produce more informative estimates of urbanization, several countries would need to clarify or rethink their definition of urban.     

Anglo Voting on Nativist Ballot Initiatives: The Partisan Impact of Spatial Proximity to the U.S.‐Mexico Border*

Objective. In this study, we examine how contextual factors influence voting behavior on nativist ballot initiatives using California's Propositions 187 and 227. We argue that spatial proximity to the border is associated with voting behavior on nativist initiatives. Methods. To examine the influence of environmental factors on Anglo voting behavior on nativist ballot initiatives, we utilize California Field Polls, U.S. Census data, and spatially referenced data generated using GIS software. Results. The results indicate that spatial proximity to the border is an important component in individual‐level voting on nativist initiatives and that the impact of proximity to the border on the vote for Propositions 187 and 227 varies as a function of individual‐level partisan affiliation. Conclusions. These findings hold implications for future research regarding the influence of geospatial boundaries and political behavior.     

The social inclusion policy agenda in Australia: a case of old wine,new bottles?

The election of an Australian Labor Government in Australia in 2007 saw ‘social inclusion’ emerge as the official and overarching social policy agenda. Being ‘included’ was subsequently defined by the ALP Government as being able to ‘have the resources, opportunities and capabilities needed to learn, work, engage and have a voice‘. Various researchers in Australia demonstrated an interest in social inclusion, as it enabled them to construct a multi‐dimensional framework for measuring disadvantage. This research program resulted in various forms of statistical modelling based on some agreement about what it means to be included in society. The multi‐dimensional approach taken by academic researchers, however, did not necessarily translate to a new model of social policy development or implementation. We argue that, similar to the experience of the UK, Australia's social inclusion policy agenda was for the most part narrowly and individually defined by politicians and policy makers, particularly in terms of equating being employed with being included. We conclude with discussion about the need to strengthen the social inclusion framework by adopting an understanding of social inequality and social justice that is more relational and less categorical.     

Dancing with discrimination: managing stigma and identity

Fans are a group that are stigmatized and discredited, at least to some degree, by their “deviant” and common form of symbolic consumption. At stake in the process of stigmatization is the very identity of the individual fan, and their symbolic and emotional well‐being. This paper reports on an empirical study of one particular group of fans—Star Trek fans (or “Trekkies”)—and explores the complex identity issues articulated by them as they “manage” their problematic public identity. Drawing upon interviews conducted with 18 Trekkies, the article describes how this stigmatic identity is organized within a disciplinary matrix that operates at a micro level through two key processes: humour and self‐surveillance. In particular, we highlight their struggle with the dilemmas of exposing their private “fandom” in a public context, and the highly ambivalent manner in which they seek to escape stigmatization.     

The Frustrating Effects of Just Missing the Jackpot: Slot Machine Near-Misses Trigger Large Skin Conductance Responses, But No Post-reinforcement Pauses

Near-misses in slot machines resemble jackpot wins but fall just short. Previous research has demonstrated that near-misses are behaviorally reinforcing despite the absence of monetary reward. We assessed the hedonic properties of near-misses by measuring the time between outcome delivery and the initiation of the next spin—the post-reinforcement pause (PRP) and skin conductance responses (SCRs) for losses, near-misses, and a range of wins (5, 15, 25, 50 or 250 credits) while participants (N = 122) played a slot machine simulator. PRPs and SCRs were compared for 40 low frequency and 22 high frequency slots players who were non-problem gamblers, 37 at risk players, and 23 problem gamblers. For winning outcomes, PRPs and SCRs tracked monotonically with win size such that progressively larger wins were associated with progressively larger PRPs and SCRs. Near-misses with jackpot symbols landing on the first two reels had significantly larger SCRs than regular losses, and other types of near misses. Crucially, PRPs for this kind of near-miss were significantly smaller than all wins, and when non-parametric statistics were used, significantly smaller than regular losses. This pattern of large SCRs and small PRPs suggest that these are highly frustrating outcomes that stimulate appetitive components of the reward system to promote continued gambling.