Analysis of Regional Scale Risk of Whirling Disease in Populations of Colorado and Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Using a Bayesian Belief Network Model

Introduction and spread of the parasite Myxobolus cerebralis, the causative agent of whirling disease, has contributed to the collapse of wild trout populations throughout the intermountain west. Of concern is the risk the disease may have on conservation and recovery of native cutthroat trout. We employed a Bayesian belief network to assess probability of whirling disease in Colorado River and Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus and Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis, respectively) within their current ranges in the southwest United States. Available habitat (as defined by gradient and elevation) for intermediate oligochaete worm host, Tubifex tubifex, exerted the greatest influence on the likelihood of infection, yet prevalence of stream barriers also affected the risk outcome. Management areas that had the highest likelihood of infected Colorado River cutthroat trout were in the eastern portion of their range, although the probability of infection was highest for populations in the southern, San Juan subbasin. Rio Grande cutthroat trout had a relatively low likelihood of infection, with populations in the southernmost Pecos management area predicted to be at greatest risk. The Bayesian risk assessment model predicted the likelihood of whirling disease infection from its principal transmission vector, fish movement, and suggested that barriers may be effective in reducing risk of exposure to native trout populations. Data gaps, especially with regard to location of spawning, highlighted the importance in developing monitoring plans that support future risk assessments and adaptive management for subspecies of cutthroat trout.     

Does Sport Celebrity Advocacy Work? Testing the Potential for Endorsements to Backfire

Fandom and psychological reactance theory, a framework for understanding reactions to messages perceived to limit an individual’s freedom to choose freely, are used to examine the influence of sports celebrities. An experiment was conducted (n = 283) to examine the impact of source similarity and controlling language use on reactance levels and message evaluations. Findings suggest that sources perceived to be similar generated less reactance than dissimilar sources. Similar source messages were also linked to greater potential for information-seeking behavior. High- versus low-controlling language use was examined in conjunction with similarity; low-controlling language was found to generate the least reactance regardless of source similarity. Implications for the use of celebrity advocacy in marketing and public relations are discussed.     

Žumberak: A Sixteenth-Century Refugee Settlement Zone

This article examines the movement of Orthodox Christian refugees from Bosnia to the Habsburg Monarchy in the 1530s and their settlement in a district called ?umberak. The movement of these Uskoks has never been examined in the context of refugee studies. This study of a refugee movement and settlement over a five-century period offers the possibility of reaching a better understanding of the long-term outcome of refugee movements. Ultimately, this article suggests that the refugees affected the land they settled as much as the settlement zone affected them, and that, in this case, the refugees were able to define their own outcome.     

Why social status matters for understanding the interrelationships between testosterone,economic risk‐taking,and gender

We conduct an extensive review of the literature on testosterone and economic risk‐taking behavior. In sum, there is evidence of a positive association between testosterone and economic risk taking, although it is unlikely to be a strong association given the abundance of null results. However, we argue that the existing literature may overstate the causal effects of testosterone on economic risk taking (or even report a spurious correlation) because this research has not considered the potentially confounding role of social status. Status could concurrently influence both testosterone and economic risk taking, given that testosterone is a social hormone with a reciprocal relationship with social status, and social status has been found to drive risk‐taking behavior. We also argue against using findings from this literature to make gender essentialist claims, primarily because social phenomena influence the size—and existence—of gender differences in economic risk‐taking behavior. We conclude with suggestions for future research.     

The Relation Between Therapeutic Alliance and Treatment Motivation in Residential Youth Care: A Cross-Lagged Panel Analysis

This study investigated the longitudinal relation between therapeutic alliance and treatment motivation in a sample of 174 adolescents receiving residential treatment in the Netherlands. Structural equation modeling with a cross-lagged panel design was used to examine the relation between therapeutic alliance and treatment motivation up to 9 months of treatment. Results revealed that autoregressive associations between initial therapeutic alliance and alliance at subsequent time points were significant, whereas for treatment motivation a significant association was found after 6 months, but not after 9 months. Results also showed that a higher level of therapeutic alliance after 3 months was predictive of a higher level of treatment motivation after 6 months. Furthermore, a higher level of therapeutic alliance after 6 months was predictive of a higher level of treatment motivation after 9 months. Implications for research and clinical practice are discussed.     

Appropriating Care and Hijacking Desire: Thought and Praxis in Human Services Under 21st Century Capitalism

In this article, we trace the rise of neoliberalism and its impacts on the historical role of human services within the academy and the community. We ask whether we can re-think and re-envision a 21st century academy rooted in the material actualities of daily living and connected in very real ways to the struggles of those Human Services was designed to serve. Finally, we propose that Human Services could have a significant role to play in developing new modes of value that could lead to new modes of thought and new avenues of praxis.     

Exploring the Hierarchical Structure of Pacific Identity and Wellbeing

To understand outcomes for Pacific peoples in New Zealand we need to further our psychological knowledge of the relationship between Pacific identity and wellbeing. We map the hierarchical organization of Pacific identity and wellbeing using a novel top-down factor analytic approach applied to the Pacific Identity and Wellbeing Scale (PIWBS; N = 586). Analyses indicated that Pacific identity experiences were organized within two broad dimensions reflecting Identity Engagement and Cultural Wellbeing. Critically, our analysis showed that Religious Centrality and Embeddedness emerged jointly from these dual broad domains. Religious identification provides a bridging link between identity and wellbeing for Pacific peoples. Identifying the relationships of Pacific identity and wellbeing factors, and how religious identification emerges jointly from these two broad domains, provides valuable information in how the Pacific self may be cognitively organized and may assist in future research directions in this area. We assert that this general statistical model provides broad conceptual insights into how Pacific peoples experience their identity and culture, and how this relates to various social indicators of health and wellbeing at a broad, theoretical level. In particular, we offer a conceptual analysis of possible insights from our hierarchical model of identity and wellbeing for understanding Pacific suicide in New Zealand.     

Point Estimates of Test Sensitivity and Specificity from Sample Means and Variances

In a wide variety of biomedical and clinical research studies, sample statistics from diagnostic marker measurements are presented as a means of distinguishing between two populations, such as with and without disease. Intuitively, a larger difference between the mean values of a marker for the two populations, and a smaller spread of values within each population, should lead to more reliable classification rules based on this marker. We formalize this intuitive notion by deriving practical, new, closed-form expressions for the sensitivity and specificity of three different discriminant tests defined in terms of the sample means and standard deviations of diagnostic marker measurements. The three discriminant tests evaluated are based, respectively, on the Euclidean distance and the Mahalanobis distance between means, and a likelihood ratio analysis. Expressions for the effects of measurement error are also presented. Our final expressions assume that the diagnostic markers follow independent normal distributions for the two populations, although it will be clear that other known distributions may be similarly analyzed. We then discuss applications drawn from the medical literature, although the formalism is clearly not restricted to that application.