Pattern classification for diagnostic purposes

Behavioral information acquisition strategies in a diagnosis problem are formulated and examined and the effects on these strategies of both information presentation and user training are tested. Twenty-five subjects participated in an experiment in which the decision maker was required to solve a set of medical diagnosis problems. A matrix of 7 illnesses and 11 possible tests was presented on a micro-computer; the task was to diagnose the correct illness with the minimum number of tests. The results were analyzed using verbal protocols and a computerized record of the user's responses. The results confirm the use of certain behavioral strategies, in particular concentration on a small subset of classes in a regular pattern, and a positional effect on the choice of tests was also detected. The implications of these results on the design of management information systems are discussed.     

Data-analytic aspects of the Shiryayev-Roberts control chart: surveillance of a non-homogeneous Poisson process

The Shiryayev-Roberts control chart has been proposed as a powerful competitor of the Shewhart control chart and the CUSUM procedure, on theoretical grounds. We demonstrate here the application of a Shiryayev-Roberts control chart to a non-homogeneous Poisson process. We show that, from a data-analytic point of view, the Shiryayev-Roberts surveillance scheme has several advantages over classical CUSUM charts. A case study of power failure times in a computer centre is used to illustrate our main points.     

ETHNIC LABOR MARKETS, GENDER, AND SOCIOECONOMIC INEQUALITY:

The research examines the way in which the economic structure of the Arab labor market in Israel, coupled with gender-linked occupational segregation affects gender differences in socioeconomic attainment. The analysis is based on the 1983 Israeli Census of Population. The concept of ethnic labor market is discussed in a comparative perspective, shifting the focus to public sector employment which is central to the Arab labor market in Israel. The analyses led to a twofold conclusion: first, the Arab labor market in Israel operates as a protected labor market, and second, it interacts with gender in the determination of socioeconomic outcomes. In the absence of competition minority workers are able to achieve in the ethnic labor market high status occupational positions that are typically denied them in the wider society. The occupational advantages are especially pronounced among Arab women. For men, employment in the ethnic labor market increases occupational status but provides lower earnings than employment outside.     

Silence Therapy with Holocaust Survivors and their Families*

Stories of family therapy with Holocaust Survivors and their families are presented. They came with symptoms or complaints that seemed unusual and at times bizarre. Although they had seen other members of the helping professions, the Holocaust had never been mentioned. Only when it was explored did their problems become comprehensible and meaningful, providing the context for alleviating or resolving their complaints. The positive aspects of survivors' silence are explored. Silence is often experienced as strength, courage, and a testimonial to those who perished. The amazing resilience of the survivors, the strength and vitality that made it possible for them to overcome their pasts and build new lives in a new country, are highlighted.     

Professional Sports as an Alternative Channel of Social Mobility*

Inequality of opportunity in the process of occupational attainment via the educational system is anticipated to cause a tendency toward alternative routes of social mobility among underprivileged groups. Professional sports have often been referred to in this respect, particularly in connection with the overrepresentation of ethnic minorities in them. The present study attempts to determine if the choice of a career in sports is mainly a matter of an individual's educational achievement and aspirations, or whether such a tendency is conditioned by socioeconomic and ethnic background. An investigation of this question among junior soccer players in Israel indicates that the preference for a career in soccer is associated with both low levels of educational achievement and modest goals, regardless of family background. Thus, at least as far as Israeli society is concerned, it is not only “cultural predisposition” which makes professional sports more attractive for lower ethnic groups, but, also the greater difficulties that youngsters of such origin encounter in the educational system.     

Beyond Pensions: A Radical Systems-Based Transformation of Present-Future Choice

Aging populations worldwide, fiscal deficits, growing sovereign debt, and slowing economies have combined to create and exacerbate what is widely known as the “pension crisis”, characterized by poverty among the elderly substantially due to inadequate retirement income. We argue that the roots of the crisis go much deeper than “pensions”, and involve a long-term secular shift from saving and capital formation to consumption, in the West. Cosmetic “solutions” to the pension crisis, such as delaying the retirement age, are ineffective. The “pension crisis” label itself impedes clear thinking about developing an effective and affordable solution. The core of the problem is the fact that present-future choice tilted to “present”, in the West, for decades. Higher saving, over a longer time horizon, invested at higher average returns, is the ultimate goal, and only one that offers true long-term transformative change. We propose an original, radical, systemic solution, based on an evolutionary social transformation¹1 ‘Evolution has achieved an extraordinary record of design, yet has taken an extremely long period of time to do so’?…?‘The exponentially quickening pace of the evolution of human-created technology, which picked up the pace from the evolution of life-forms’. (Kurzweil, 1999 Kurzweil, R. 1999. The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence. New York: Viking. [Google Scholar]) of present-future choice toward increased saving; a proposal that addresses the roots of the pension crisis, not just the symptoms.²2 This paper is based in part on a longer study, Gerstenhaber et al., 2015 Gerstenhaber, M., Maital, S. & Buchnik, T. 2015. The Carob Tree: A Radical Evolutionary Systemic Solution to the Pension Crisis. Haifa, Israel: S. Neaman Institute, Technion. [Google Scholar]; an earlier version of the pension reform proposal outlined below can be found in Passig and Gerstenhaber (2014) Passig, D. & Gerstenhaber, M. 2014. A Possible Pension-savings Paradigm for a Sustainable Future: A Developed Country Case Study (UK). Journal of Organisational Transformation & Social Change, 11(3): 207–229. doi: 10.1179/1477963314Z.00000000030[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar] and Gerstenhaber (2009) Gerstenhaber, M. 2009. Have You Ever Seen a Retired Tiger in the Jungle? Eradicating Pensioner Poverty: A Manifesto for Democratic and Responsible Capitalism. London: Ruscombe Press. [Google Scholar]. We contend that an effective pension allocation and accumulation system is a stable force for economic growth over time — but only when these significant capital investments are made directly in the real economy and take account of appropriate technological innovation. At the moment the bulk of global investment capital in the West is directed to short-term speculative activity in various financial markets, opportunistically taking advantage of historically low borrowing rates. We provide a macroeconomic simulation of our proposal, should it be adopted, comparing no-change and radical-change scenarios for the Israel economy, and urge scholars to carry out similar projections and analyses for individual OECD countries. We next show how an increase in national saving and capital formation can contribute to “rebalancing” the global economy, between low-saving Western nations and high-saving Asian ones. Finally, we outline our “four pillar” radical proposal, which leverages persistent long-run saving and investment, and illustrate its impact with some macroeconomic projections for Israel, comparing two scenarios, one with low national saving, the second with increased national saving. An achievable increase in the national saving rate, implemented through the tax system and accompanied by intelligent capital formation, can have enormous impact, it is shown, not only on elderly poverty but on society as a whole. In our plan, lower consumption demand through higher savings, is offset by higher capital formation, which has a larger employment and GDP multiplier.     

Jewish Identity,Denomination and Denominational Mobility

This paper explores religious and ethnic components of American Jewish identity, in both public and private dimensions. In the first part of the paper, we study how nine aspects of Jewish identity vary among the three main American Jewish denominations;we then explain how much of this variation is related to the background factors of Jewish education and denomination. Finally, we consider the effect of the extensive mobility that is found between denomination raised and current denomination, and discuss its implications for the individual who moves between denominations as well as for the denominations as a whole. We show that movers from more traditional to less traditional denominations retain an influence of their previous denomination; while movers from less traditional to more traditional denominations exhibit a 'rededication' effect which gives them a stronger Jewish identity than those raised and staying in the denomination. As a result, the current patterns of interdenominational mobility result in a strengthening of Jewish identity in each denomination, and therefore among American Jews as a whole. Further, differences between the denominations are mitigated by this mobility. However, the effect may be short-lived, because according to current mobility trends, the numbers of those with stronger Jewish identity are dwindling. The analysis is based on data from the New York Jewish Population Study conducted in 1991.