Comparison of household-survey estimates with projections of mortality and orphan numbers in sub-Saharan Africa in the era of HIV/AIDS

The United Nations publishes estimates of HIV prevalence, AIDS mortality, and orphan numbers for all countries of the world. It is important to assess the validity of these model-based estimates since they underpin much policy concerned with care and prevention. Household surveys that ask questions about the survival of children's parents (orphanhood) offer an independent source of data with which these estimates can be compared. Survey estimates of maternal and paternal orphans are significantly lower than model estimates for 40 surveys in 36 countries of sub-Saharan Africa (p < 0.001, p = 0.002). This is probably because adult mortality from causes other than AIDS is lower than assumed in the models, although under-reporting of orphanhood in surveys may also play a role. Reducing adult mortality from causes other than AIDS brings the model estimates into close agreement with the surveys. This suggests that the fraction of orphans attributable to AIDS is greater than estimated previously.     

Population growth, development and the environment

When Population Studies was founded in 1946 a main preoccupation of demographers and of the public was the prospective decline of the British population, and the falling off of its quality because on the average a poor family had more children than a better-off one. Over the course of the 50 years interests have shifted to the aging of populations as births decline and mortality improves; immigration, immigrants being welcomed for the decades after the war, and subsequently facing hostile political pressures; environmental degradation and the spread of new diseases. The fall in the birth rate, required both for development and for protection of the environment, is spreading from the original industrialized countries of Europe and America to Asia, somewhat more slowly to Latin America, slowest of all to Africa.     

Values and fertility change in Japan

This paper analyses how value change and economic and social change have jointly affected fertility in Japan since 1950, and especially since 1973 when fertility resumed declining after some 15 years at near-replacement level. The resumption of fertility decline since 1973 has been driven primarily by underlying economic and social changes. Value change has tended to lag behind fertility change, and this lag has tended to be larger in Japan than in other advanced nations, primarily because underlying economic and social conditions have evolved more rapidly in Japan, and because it takes time for values to adjust to changes in underlying conditions. Because of Japan's high degree of cultural homogeneity, values tend to be widely and quickly shared, so that under certain conditions value change tends to occur in spurts. In Japan, many of the more important value changes affecting fertility in recent decades are bound up with major educational and job gains by women, which have led to greater economic independence and more emphasis on values of individualism and equality between the sexes.     

Effects of the one-child family policy on second and third births in Hebei,Shaanxi and Shanghai

This paper uses the proportional hazards model to assess the effect of the Chinese one-child policy on second and third births. The differential effects of the policy between the urban and rural areas and by the sex of previous children are highlighted. First, the urban-rural differentials have increased much after the policy, suggesting a more rapid increase in the costs of children and stricter government controls in the urban areas. Second, the sex of children has become a more important factor after the policy. The considerably higher risks to a subsequent birth among sonless families indicate the persistent strong son preferences among Chinese parents, especially in less developed areas. Although son preferences seem suppressed in Shanghai, the higher risks to a second birth after the death of a son compared to a daughter are indicative of the son preferences even in Shanghai. Relaxation of the one-child policy may increase the Chinese fertility.     

Unemployment and marital dissolution

This paper analyses the effects of unemployment on the probability of marital dissolution. Based on panel data for a sample of Danish married couples, we estimate a dynamic model for the probability of marital dissolution where we take into account the possible effects of unemployment for both spouses. We also control for other factors such as education, age, presence of children, place of residence, health and economic factors. The empirical results show that unemployment seems to be an important factor behind marital instability. However, only unemployment of the husband has an effect, and this effect is immediate.We thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

A Markov chain for calculating the durability of marriage

"The usual Markov model of marriage permits informative experiments on the effect of alterations in the transition rules. It can tell, for example, what difference it would make to the durability of marriage if there was no divorce and the other transitions were as observed. This is in addition to the capacity of the usual model to find the effect of small changes in the transition rates. Canadian data for 1970-1982 permit comparisons over time, and show among other things not only that married men live longer than single, but that the difference is increasing; the increase in the 'marriage bonus' over time also appears for women." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

Expression and ambivalence over expression of negative emotion:psychometric analysis in the Women's Health Initiative

Inhibition of emotional expression has been associated with the incidence and progression of breast cancer and other chronic illnesses. Others have theorized that it may not be repression itself, but rather ambivalence over the expression of emotions that is the important health-related factor. The Women's Health Initiative (WHI), a long-term, national study focusing on disease prevention among postmenopausal women, is unique in its assessment of expression and ambivalence of negative emotion in a large study sample of multiethnic, older women. Psychological factors such as expression of negative emotion and ambivalence about expression of emotion are also determined by social patterning. The current study examined the psychometric properties of the instruments used to measure each construct and variation across race/ethnicity and age. The analysis suggests that the scales can be used with confidence in diverse ethnic and age groups. Examining ambivalence about expression of negative emotion in future longitudinal research will further elucidate its role in predicting disease incidence and recovery, both important in reducing the public health burden of chronic disease.     

Education, sex and leisure: ideology, discipline and the construction of race among South African servicemen during the Second World War

During the Second World War (1939-1945), South African military authorities employed various regimes to mould white South African soldiers as citizens of a particular type. These coincided broadly with traditions of racial statehood identified by David Goldberg, and included attempts at ideological control – through the liberal Army Education Scheme, a compulsory adult education project – as well as disciplinary interventions, which concentrated on soldiers' sexuality. The ways that ordinary soldiers responded to these divergent discourses reminds us that whiteness in a racial state was elaborated not just from above, but also below. This observation raises some cautionary points for the writing of 'post-social' history, and just as it demands that ordinary servicemen's actions, experiences and ideologies need to be related to the state and other modes of power, it reaffirms Geoff Eley's appeal for a 'new history of society'.Lines of investigation that explore attempts to educate, discipline and control white soldiers begin to challenge some of the conventional periodizations of SA history, particularly the notion that South Africa's 1940s represented an optimistic 'world of possibilities'.