Distribution Planning to Optimize Profits in the Motion Picture Industry

We consider the distribution planning problem in the motion picture industry. This problem involves forecasting theater‐level box office revenues for a given movie and using these forecasts to choose the best locations to screen a movie. We first develop a method that predicts theater‐level box office revenues over time for a given movie as a function of movie attributes and theater characteristics. These estimates are then used by the distributor to choose where to screen the movie. The distributor's location selection problem is modeled as an integer programming‐based optimization model that chooses the location of theaters in order to optimize profits. We tested our methods on realistic box office data and show that it has the potential to significantly improve the distributor's profits. We also develop some insights into why our methods outperform existing practice, which are crucial to their successful practical implementation.     

Preservation of some reliability properties by certain record statistics

Record values are closely connected with the occurrence times of a corresponding non-homogeneous Poisson process and in reliability theory, they are used in shock models. In this paper, first, some distribution properties of current records are presented. It is then shown that the hazard (reversed hazard) function of the upper (lower) current records can be expressed in terms of the hazard (reversed hazard) function of the parent distribution. Some reliability relationships between the original variable X and the corresponding current records and with record ranges are established. Also, preservation of some uncertainty measure based on current records is discussed.     

Bayesian prediction of order statistics based on k-record values from exponential distribution

Bayesian prediction of order statistics as well as the mean of a future sample based on observed record values from an exponential distribution are discussed. Several Bayesian prediction intervals and point predictors are derived. Finally, some numerical computations are presented for illustrating all the proposed inferential procedures.     

Comparison of order statistics in two-sample problem in the sense of Pitman closeness

In this paper, we study the Pitman measure of closeness of order statistics of two independent samples from the same distribution to population quantiles. We then derive various exact expressions of the probability closeness of order statistics from the X and Y samples. Some distribution-free results for the median of the sampling distribution are obtained. Exact and explicit expressions are presented for Uniform(?1, 1) and exponential distributions. Numerical results for illustrative purposes are also provided.     

Gray Markets,A Product of Demand Uncertainty and Excess Inventory

Diverting large quantities of goods from authorized distribution channels to unauthorized or “gray market” channels, albeit legal, significantly affects both firms and consumers due to effects on price, revenue, service and warranty availability, and product availability. In this paper we consider mechanisms by which the uncertainty surrounding inventory ordering decisions drives gray markets. We start with a minimal stochastic supply chain model composed of a producer and a retailer; then we restructure the model to add a distributor whereby the distributor and authorized retailer have the option of diverting inventory to a gray market. Our analysis sheds light on three issues: impacts of diversion on the various supply chain participants, strategies producers could use to combat or exploit gray markets, and important considerations for authorized retailers trying to set optimal order quantities in the presence of a gray market. Our analysis yields new insights into the behavior and impact of gray markets, which can inform management strategies and policies for confronting them.     

Simultaneous Closeness of k-Records

In this article, we study the simultaneous Pitman closeness of upper (and lower) k-records to a common parameter of the parent distribution and obtain general expressions for the corresponding probabilities. Since the usual record values are contained in the k-records, the corresponding results for the usual records can be deduced as special cases. The results are then applied to location-scale families with an emphasis on population quantiles. Exact expressions are derived for some common distributions such as exponential and uniform. In each case, the simultaneous closest k-record to a population quantile is determined.     

Limiting Tail Dependence Copulas

The limiting lower-tail dependence copula (LLTDC) is defined as the copula of random variables which are right-truncated at thresholds tending to their left endpoints. This article shows LLTDCs are truncation-invariant and belong to the Ahmadi-Clayton family. Accordingly, it follows that limiting upper-tail dependence copulas are members of the survival Ahmadi-Clayton family.     

Parent–Child Proximity: Automatic Cognitions Matter

Individuals’ moving behavior (e.g., residential mobility) is an emerging topic in many scientific disciplines. One specific aspect is the distance between parents and their children (i.e., parent–child proximity). Although determinants and moderators of parent–child proximity can be manifold, we concentrated on the psychological concepts self-esteem and affect by assessing explicit (i.e., conscious) and implicit (i.e., automatic) aspects. Besides well-known correlates of moving behavior (e.g., education), we found that participants (N = 1,765; cross-sectional design) with high positive explicit affect and low negative implicit affect moved further away from their parents’ homes. Therefore, parent–child proximity may not be only based on fundamental sociocultural and socioeconomic needs (e.g., income, family bonds), but also on automatic psychological aspects, such as implicit affect.     

Globalisation of consciousness and new challenges for international social work

Although the notion of international social work is not new, it is only in recent times that its central premises have been in focus. Considering diverse ongoing globalisation processes and in regard to the weakening of the national welfare state, social work must tackle the challenge of redefining its role and mission if it is to remain true to its professional commitments. The emergence of new global regions and the globalisation of local social problems make the consolidation of democracy and human rights, the prevention of conflicts and the promotion of solidarity and peace through global cultural integration some of the main concerns of international social work. In this article, international social work is discussed as a project of partnership between diverse social actors such as practitioners, universities and local governments cooperating beyond the boundaries of the nation-state.     

On the human survivorship function and life table construction

The construction of life tables is often marred by one or more of the following restrictions: (1) assumptions that are either unjustifiable or of questionable generality; (2) rough approximations; (3) exacting data requirements. This paper recommends instead a simple method which regards the force of mortality as constant within each age interval. The reasoning is readily comprehensible and all life table functions are easily calculated from the age-specific death rates without any need for further assumptions, approximations, or data. Furthermore, this method produces numerical results that are close to those obtained by other methods.