Disclosures and Asset Returns

Public information in financial markets often arrives through the disclosures of interested parties who have a material interest in the reactions of the market to the new information. When the strategic interaction between the sender and the receiver is formalized as a disclosure game with verifiable reports, equilibrium prices can be given a simple characterization in terms of the concatenation of binomial pricing trees. There are a number of empirical implications. The theory predicts that the return variance following a poor disclosed outcome is higher than it would have been if the disclosed outcome were good. Also, when investors are risk averse, this leads to negative serial correlation of asset returns. Other points of contact with the empirical literature are discussed.     

组织结构视角下农业社会化服务模式研究

基于组织结构的视角,以第一批全国农业社会化服务典型案例为研究对象,可以将我国现有的优秀农业社会化服务模式大致分为层级型、平台型和网络型三大类.研究发现,平台型和网络型服务模式在带动小农户、拓展服务内容、降低服务成本等方面,明显强于层级型服务模式.但是,平台型和网络型服务模式中的服务内容复杂繁多、所涉及资源要素偏多,往往需要实力较强的龙头企业带动;而层级型服务模式中,很少需要龙头企业等工商资本介入,其对农业社会化服务主体整合服务资源的能力要求偏低,便于农民自发组织开展,在我国很多农村地区更具有推广的可行性.