Assessing Type I error and power of multistate Markov models for panel data—A simulation study

Ordinal outcomes collected at multiple follow-up visits are common in clinical trials. Sometimes, one visit is chosen for the primary analysis and the scale is dichotomized amounting to loss of information. Multistate Markov models describe how a process moves between states over time. Here, simulation studies are performed to investigate the Type I error and power characteristics of multistate Markov models for panel data with limited non-adjacent state transitions. The results suggest that the multistate Markov models preserve the Type I error and adequate power is achieved with modest sample sizes for panel data with limited non-adjacent state transitions.     

An empirical approach to determine a threshold for assessing overdispersion in Poisson and negative binomial models for count data

Overdispersion is a problem encountered in the analysis of count data that can lead to invalid inference if unaddressed. Decision about whether data are overdispersed is often reached by checking whether the ratio of the Pearson chi-square statistic to its degrees of freedom is greater than one; however, there is currently no fixed threshold for declaring the need for statistical intervention. We consider simulated cross-sectional and longitudinal datasets containing varying magnitudes of overdispersion caused by outliers or zero inflation, as well as real datasets, to determine an appropriate threshold value of this statistic which indicates when overdispersion should be addressed.     

Behavior of agreement measures in the presence of zero cells and biased marginal distributions

Kappa and B assess agreement between two observers independently classifying N units into k categories. We study their behavior under zero cells in the contingency table and unbalanced asymmetric marginal distributions. Zero cells arise when a cross-classification is never endorsed by both observers; biased marginal distributions occur when some categories are preferred differently between the observers. Simulations studied the distributions of the unweighted and weighted statistics for k=4, under fixed proportions of diagonal agreement and different patterns off-diagonal, with various sample sizes, and under various zero cell count scenarios. Marginal distributions were first uniform and homogeneous, and then unbalanced asymmetric distributions. Results for unweighted kappa and B statistics were comparable to work of Muñoz and Bangdiwala, even with zero cells. A slight increased variation was observed as the sample size decreased. Weighted statistics did show greater variation as the number of zero cells increased, with weighted kappa increasing substantially more than weighted B. Under biased marginal distributions, weighted kappa with Cicchetti weights were higher than with squared weights. Both statistics for observer agreement behaved well under zero cells. The weighted B was less variable than the weighted kappa under similar circumstances and different weights. In general, B's performance and graphical interpretation make it preferable to kappa under the studied scenarios.     

A New Two‐Bin Policy for Inventory Systems with Differentiated Demand Classes

We consider an inventory system under continuous review with two demand classes that are different in terms of service level required (or penalty cost incurred for backordering of demand). Prior literature has proposed the critical level rationing (CLR) policy under which the demand from the lower priority class is backordered once inventory falls below the critical level. While this reduces the penalty cost for the higher demand class, the fill rate achieved for the lower priority demand class gets compromised. In this study, we propose a new class of two‐bin (2B) policy for the problem. The proposed 2B policy assigns separate bins of inventory for the two demand classes. The demand for each class is fulfilled from its assigned bin. However, when the bin intended for the higher demand class is empty, the demand from the higher class can still be fulfilled with the inventory from the other bin. The advantage of the 2B policy is that better fill rates are achieved, especially for the lower demand class. Computational results show that the proposed policy is able to provide a much higher service level for the lower priority class demand without increasing the total cost too much and without affecting the service level for the higher priority class. When a service level constrained optimization problem is considered, the 2B policy dominates the CLR policy when the service level difference for the two classes is not too high or the service levels required for both the classes are relatively lower.     

Context of Acceptability of Topical Microbicides: Sexual Relationships

Domains central to the effects of sexual relationships on the acceptability of a vaginal protection method were explored in 14 focus groups and 38 in-depth interviews with women and men recruited from a health department's sexually transmitted infections (STI) and family planning clinics. Findings indicate that acceptability depended on a couple's relationship type, classified as serious, casual, or "new." Potential barriers to communication about product use may be overcome through direct or indirect covert use, depending on relationship type. More men than women thought women should always tell their partners if they use microbicides, regardless of relationship type. Results indicate the importance of the relationship context in understanding the likely acceptability of using microbicides, and perhaps any method of STI/HIV protection .     

On some generalized ageing orderings

Some partial orderings that compare probability distributions with the exponential distribution are found to be very useful to understand the phenomenon of ageing. Here, we introduce some new generalized partial orderings which describe the same kind of phenomenon of some generalized ageing classes. We give some equivalent conditions for each of the orderings. Inter-relations among the generalized orderings have also been discussed.     

Pervious and impervious pavement reduce production and decrease lifespan of fine roots of mature Sweetgum trees

Root zones of mature Sweetgum paved with either pervious or impervious concrete after 15–18 years of tree growth exhibited much reduced standing fine root length compared to unpaved plots 3 years after pavement installation. The objective of this paper was to determine whether these observed reductions in standing root length were due to reduced root production rates or due to enhanced root mortality rates in response to the presence of either pavement. We measured both fine root production and root death over a 15-month period using biweekly nondestructive observations of the root zones at four depths. In addition, we used proportional hazards analysis to determine how the presence of pavement affected chances of root mortality. We found that new root production was more negatively affected by the presence of either pavement than root mortality while chances of root mortality were increased by the presence of pavement, leading to much reduced standing net root length in paved plots at any given time. Surprisingly, even though root production and mortality were strongly altered by pavement, there was no significant effect on tree diameter growth. These results suggest that while Sweetgum root dynamics are negatively affected by pavement, there is enough plasticity within this species to adapt to altered root zone dynamics without affecting aboveground growth.     

Diagnostic Plots for Assessing the Frailty Distribution in Multivariate Survival Data

In biomedical studies, frailty models arecommonly used in analyzing multivariate survival data, wherethe objective of the study is to estimate both the covariateeffect and the dependence between the multivariate survival times.However, inference based on these models are dependent on thedistributional assumption of frailty. We propose a diagnosticplot for assessing the frailty assumption. The proposed methodis based on the cross-ratio function and the diagnostic plotsuggested by Oakes (1989). We use kernel regression smoothingwith bandwidth choice by cross-validation, to obtain the proposedplot. The resulting plot is capable of differentiating betweenthe gamma and positive stable frailty models when strong associationis present. We illustrate the feasibility of our method usingsimulation studies under known frailty distributions. The approachis applied to data on blindness for each eye of diabetic patientswith adult onset diabetes and a reasonable fit to the gamma frailtymodel is found.