On the Optimality of Prediction-based Selection Criteria and the Convergence Rates of Estimators

Several estimators of squared prediction error have been suggested for use in model and bandwidth selection problems. Among these are cross-validation, generalized cross-validation and a number of related techniques based on the residual sum of squares. For many situations with squared error loss, e.g. nonparametric smoothing, these estimators have been shown to be asymptotically optimal in the sense that in large samples the estimator minimizing the selection criterion also minimizes squared error loss. However, cross-validation is known not to be asymptotically optimal for some `easy' location problems. We consider selection criteria based on estimators of squared prediction risk for choosing between location estimators. We show that criteria based on adjusted residual sum of squares are not asymptotically optimal for choosing between asymptotically normal location estimators that converge at rate n ^1/2but are when the rate of convergence is slower. We also show that leave-one-out cross-validation is not asymptotically optimal for choosing between √ n -differentiable statistics but leave- d -out cross-validation is optimal when d ∞ at the appropriate rate.     

Work and Family in the Second Decade of the 21st Century

In the second decade of the 21st century, research on work and family from multiple disciplines flourished. The goal of this review is to capture the scope of this work–family literature and to highlight both the valuable advances and problematic omissions. In synthesizing this literature, the authors show that numerous scholars conducted studies and refined theories that addressed gender, but far fewer examined racial and class heterogeneity. They argue that examining heterogeneity changes the understanding of work–family relations. After briefly introducing the broad social, political, and economic context in which diverse work–family connections developed, this review uses this context to address the following three main themes, each with subtopics: (a) unpaid work including housework, parenting as work, and kin work; (b) paid work including work timing and hours, money (i.e., motherhood penalty, fatherhood bonus, marriage bonus, kin care penalty), relationships (i.e., coworkers, supervisors), and work experiences (i.e., complexity, autonomy, urgency); and (c) work–family policies (i.e., scheduling and child care). Given the breadth of the work–family literature, this review is not exhaustive but, rather, the authors synthesize key findings on each topic followed by a critique, especially with regard to the analyses of differences and inequalities around gender, race, ethnicity, and social class.     

Lexical change and language contact: Faetar in Italy and Canada

I examine patterns of lexical variation in the homeland varieties of Faetar and Cellese, endangered Francoprovençal dialects spoken in two villages in southern Italy, and in Toronto, one of their largest émigré communities. While lexical change due to borrowing has been in progress for some time in Faetar and Cellese, cross‐generational and diatopic comparisons within a sample of 80 speakers surprisingly indicate that the lexicon is currently quite stable. The lack of systematic patterns of differentiation across age, sex, social class, and regional groups indicates that diachronic lexical variation may not be reflected synchronically in the same ways as the structural variables that form the majority of quantitative sociolinguistic investigation. This suggests the need for further comparisons across types of variables, while maintaining consistent methods of data collection, analysis, and interpretation. Esamino gli schemi di variazione del lessico nella varietà di faetar e cellese, dialetti francoprovenzali in via di estinzione parlati in due paesi dell’Italia meridionale e a Toronto, dove risiede una delle più grande comunità emigrate. Se da un lato, vi sono stati per un po’ di tempo mutamenti lessicali dovuti ai prestiti, dall’altro, i confronti inter‐generazionali e diatopici in un campione di 80 locutori suggeriscono che il lessico del faetano è attualmente abbastanza stabile. La mancanza di modelli sistematici di differenziazione attraverso l’età, il sesso, la classe sociale ed i gruppi regionali indicano che la variazione del lessico diacronica non possa essere riflessa in sincronismo negli stessi sensi delle variabili strutturali che formano la maggior parte di ricerca sociolinguistica quantitativa. Suggerisco l’esigenza di ulteriori confronti attraverso i tipi di variabili, coi metodi costanti di raccolta di dati, di analisi e di interpretazione. [Italian] J’ésamene lò sestème de variaziun de le parole pe faetar e cegliaye, dialèt francpruvenzale che i stunt pe muriye e ché se parlunt ancore a dò paiye de l’Italye méridionale e a Toronte, addou a y at une de le cumunetta mé rose a l’èstre. Si de na pare, de le parole faetare e cegliayse i stunt cangian da bunariel de tén pe toche i venunt cangia tò parole d’ate lén e dialèt de n’ata banne, lu cunfrunt diatopeche e de defferént generaziun ghyòcche un grup de 80 crestian ché i parlunt faetar o cegliaye i proue ché le parole de lu faetar e de lu cegliaye òre nun tan i cangiunt. La mancanze de modèl prècise pe fa destenziun a second de la yettà, de si se tratte de muén o fén, de la classa sociale e de lò grup de crestian de Faite e de Toronte, i demostre ché lu cangemmén diacroneche de le parole i puot pa étre refletti sincronecammén a la stéssa maniére de le variable strutturale ché i furmunt la para mé rose de la recérca sociolinguisteche quantetative. Su ò vint a dire chéò abbesugne fare mé de cunfrunt tra lò tipe de variable, tò lò stésse sestème pe recchitre lò date, pe fare le analese e l’enterpretaziun. [Cellese. A recording of this Cellese abstract is available at http://projects.chass.utoronto.ca/ngn/sounds/abstract_Arcangelo.wav ] ¹     

Properties of the sociolinguistic monitor1

This paper investigates the perceptual aspect of quantitative sociolinguistic variation in order to derive properties of a sociolinguistic monitor integrated into linguistic processing in real time. A series of experiments measured listeners’ sensitivity to frequencies in the form of variable percentages of the non‐standard apical form of the variable (ING). Subjects heard ten trial readings of broadcast news from the same speaker, and rated them on a seven‐point Likert scale of professional suitability. Responses conformed closely to a logarithmic function in which the effect of each deviation from the norm was proportional to the percent increase in deviations. The logarithmic pattern of responses was replicated in group and individual experiments in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and in group experiments in Columbia, South Carolina and Durham, New Hampshire. South Carolina subjects were less critical of the /in/ variant in news broadcasting but showed the identical logarithmic function in reacting to Northern and Southern speakers. Inferences are drawn on the window of temporal resolution of the sociolinguistic monitor, its sensitivity and the pattern of attenuation over time.     

Racial differences in depression trajectories among older women: socioeconomic, family, and health influences

Despite recent increases in life course research on mental illness, important questions remain about the social patterning of, and explanations for, depression trajectories among women in later life. The authors investigate competing theoretical frameworks for the age patterning of depressive symptoms and the physical health, socioeconomic, and family mechanisms differentiating black and white women. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Women, the authors use linear mixed (growth curve) models to estimate trajectories of distress for women aged 52 to 81 years (N = 3,182). The results demonstrate that: (1) there are persistently higher levels of depressive symptoms among black women relative to white women throughout later life; (2) physical health and socioeconomic status account for much of the racial gap in depressive symptoms; and (3) marital status moderates race differences in distress. The findings highlight the importance of physical health, family, and socioeconomic status in racial disparities in mental health.     

Rethinking Families and Community: The Color,Class, and Centrality of Extended Kin Ties1

Although a focus on marriage and the nuclear family characterizes much sociological research and social commentary, this article suggests that this focus ignores the familial experiences of many Americans, particularly those on the lower end of the economic spectrum for whom extended kin are central. African Americans and Latinos/as are more involved with kin than whites, but class trumps race in this regard: African Americans, Latinos/as, and whites with fewer economic resources rely more on extended kin than do those more affluent. The emphasis on marriage and the nuclear family may actually promulgate a vision of family life that dismisses the very social resources and community ties that are critical to the survival strategies of those in need. In contrast to those who have argued that marriage is the foundation of the community or even, in that overused phrase, the “basic unit of society,” this article suggests that marriage actually detracts from social ties to broader communities just as an emphasis on marriage and the nuclear family, to the exclusion of the extended family, distorts and reduces the power and reach of social policy.     

Identity and gender in cultural transitions: returning home from higher education as ‘internal immigration’ among Bedouin and Druze women in Israel

This paper examines the phenomenon of the return of Bedouin and Druze women from studies in Israeli universities to their homes and culture, focusing on the perspective of the psychological changes they experienced in their identity. Entering the university, located in the Jewish-Israeli space (in central cities in Israel), constitutes entry into a new and different cultural world that exposes these women to values and norms different from those of their culture of origin. The identity formed as a result of their encounter with and exposure to a world that was unfamiliar to them and the return thereafter to their villages entail changes in gender identity. Not only are they ‘different’ from the way they were before they left; they often feel like ‘internal immigrants’ within their own culture. A deeper understanding of these effects would enhance comprehension of the emotional processes and identity changes undergone by women from non-Western cultures who obtain higher education.