A unified approach to interpolation and graduation

The subject of interpolation and graduation is customarily treated by finite difference formulas of great variety and complexity, these having been developed with the convenience of hand calculation in mind. The cheapening of computation which has occurred in the past few years permits a simplification and unification of the subject. This is accomplished by linear equations which express conditions it is desired to impose on the interpolating curve and the elimination of the constants resulting in a determinantal equation. A computer program which evaluates a determinant then suffices for nearly any problem of graduation, interpolation, numerical differentiation and integration, as well as for the calculation of the remainder term or error of any of these.     

Two Population-Environment Regimes in the Great Plains of the United States, 1930–1990

This paper analyzes factors that affect net migration rates in counties in the U.S. Great Plains between 1930 and 1990, emphasizing the roles of weather (especially drought), environmental amenities, employment, and population, making use of a rich county-level data set. Using a pooled time series model the paper shows that environment is important in population processes, with weather and agricultural change more important in the 1930s and 1940s, and environmental amenities more important in later time periods. The paper provides important insights into how environmental impacts on migration might change over time, and how those changes might be measured.     

The Role of Maternal Behavior in the Relation between Shyness and Social Reticence in Early Childhood and Social Withdrawal in Middle Childhood

The moderating effect of maternal behavior in the relations between social reticence and shyness in preschool and subsequent social withdrawal was investigated. Eighty children (47 females) were judged for degree of social reticence during play with unfamiliar peers at the age of four and mothers completed the Colorado child temperament inventory (CCTI). At the age of seven, the children were coded for degree of social withdrawal during peer play and mothers and children were observed during structured and unstructured activities. Two significant interaction effects indicated that maternal report of shyness was a positive predictor of age‐seven social withdrawal when mothers lacked positivity; whereas observed social reticence was associated with higher degrees of social withdrawal when mothers were highly negative. Maternal positivity and negativity differentially influenced the development of social withdrawal in childhood, such that maternal negativity is associated with poor social functioning in children who have an established history of social withdrawal; whereas maternal positivity is associated with better social outcome for preschoolers who are viewed as temperamentally shy.     

Leveraging historical data into oncology development programs: Two case studies of phase 2 Bayesian augmented control trial designs

Leveraging historical data into the design and analysis of phase 2 randomized controlled trials can improve efficiency of drug development programs. Such approaches can reduce sample size without loss of power. Potential issues arise when the current control arm is inconsistent with historical data, which may lead to biased estimates of treatment efficacy, loss of power, or inflated type 1 error. Consideration as to how to borrow historical information is important, and in particular, adjustment for prognostic factors should be considered. This paper will illustrate two motivating case studies of oncology Bayesian augmented control (BAC) trials. In the first example, a glioblastoma study, an informative prior was used for the control arm hazard rate. Sample size savings were 15% to 20% by using a BAC design. In the second example, a pancreatic cancer study, a hierarchical model borrowing method was used, which enabled the extent of borrowing to be determined by consistency of observed study data with historical studies. Supporting Bayesian analyses also adjusted for prognostic factors. Incorporating historical data via Bayesian trial design can provide sample size savings, reduce study duration, and enable a more scientific approach to development of novel therapies by avoiding excess recruitment to a control arm. Various sensitivity analyses are necessary to interpret results. Current industry efforts for data transparency have meaningful implications for access to patient‐level historical data, which, while not critical, is helpful to adjust for potential imbalances in prognostic factors.     

Following the Rules? Candidate Strategy in Presidential Primaries*

Objectives. The competitiveness of the 2008 presidential primaries in both the Republican and Democratic parties has prompted a reconsideration of the role of delegate‐selection rules in influencing the strategic behavior of presidential candidates. Using advertising and candidate state‐visit data from the 2004 and 2008 presidential nominating campaigns, we reexamine the strategies presidential candidates use when competing for the nomination of their party. Methods. Using the Wisconsin Advertising Project Data from 2004 and 2008, we estimate several multiple regressions designed to analyze the factors predicting candidate visits and advertising. Results. We find that, to a large extent, the rules of the game help predict where candidates allocate their political advertising and campaign stops; candidates consider whether a contest is a primary or caucus, they pay attention to how many delegates are at stake, and they consider whether a state's delegate‐allocation method is largely proportional or winner take all. Yet we also find some differences in how the rules influence frontrunners and long‐shot candidates, and we discover how other factors, including a candidate's access to financial resources, influence the allocation of ads and visits. Conclusion. Our findings offer some of the first empirical evidence for the idea that a state's delegate‐allocation method influences candidates' resource‐allocation behavior. That these rules matter at all is somewhat of a surprise given that the delegate‐allocation methods used by states have become more homogenous within each party.     

Comics and visual biography: sequential art in social research

This article describes the use of comics in a mixed methods biographical research project aimed at understanding the experiences of vegans (i.e. people who eschew animal products such as meat, dairy and eggs). It begins with a discussion of Comics Studies as a growing interdisciplinary field of academic inquiry, and attempts to trace a connection between this and Visual Sociology more broadly. It then provides examples of the way in which comics were used in the project and the rationale underpinning this. Participants were asked to create comics about their lives, which aimed to supplement biographical interviews that had already taken place, eliciting rich ‘visual biographical’ data that an interview would not produce. Comics were also used as a mode of representation, whereby a ‘visual autoethnography’ was produced, outlining the author’s reflexive autobiographical relationship with veganism, and telling the story of the research. This project presented challenges, specifically around participation, ethics and anonymity, and data analysis. Despite this, the comics produced provided an unusual and valuable insight into the lives and experiences of vegans. To conclude, this article argues that the visual biographical data yielded through the use of the Comics medium represents a valuable tool in visual sociology.