Optimal population and exhaustible resource constraints

A large literature considers the optimal size and growth rate of the human population, trading off the utility value of additional people with the costs of a larger population. In this literature, an important parameter is the social weight placed on population size; a standard result is that a planner with a larger weight on population chooses larger population levels and growth rates. We demonstrate that this result is conditionally overturned when an exhaustible resource constraint is introduced: if the discount rate is small enough, the optimal population today decreases with the welfare weight on population size. That is, a more total-utilitarian social planner could prefer a smaller population today than a more average-utilitarian social planner. We also present a numerical illustration applied to the case of climate change, where we show that under plausible real-world parameter values, our result matters for the direction and magnitude of optimal population policy.     

Organizational persistence in the use of war gaming and scenario planning

Even though war gaming and scenario planning are widely used in business contexts, there is little evidence that either practice is associated with superior performance. Why, then, spend the costs? In this paper we address this puzzle and suggest why the extant empirical findings have so far proven limited. We consider the development of these practices and find that they have a substantially entangled and overlapping history, particularly at the RAND Corporation in the 1950s. Despite shared historical roots, the treatment of war gaming and scenario planning in the scholarly literature branched out into different streams. This separation is unfortunate because it obscures a better understanding of the premises under which these practices are effective. We propose an analysis of the overlaps and contrasts of war gaming and scenario planning that sets out clear boundary conditions for their use and efficacy. We find that each practice is tailored to provide strategic guidance in a context where the organization is facing different forms of uncertainty. This suggests they may be effective, and thus improve organizational performance, where the relevant uncertainties are operative. Such benefits would be apparent over longer time scales, and only if the relevant boundary conditions are met. However, to the best of our knowledge, no longitudinal empirical test of either war gaming or scenario planning is available. We therefore conclude that more research is needed to ascertain the true relationship between these popular practices and their performance outcomes.     

Credibility or Credulity? Examining Political Organization-Public Relationships in an Election of Interloping Candidates

ABSTRACT

This national online survey (N = 493) examined the political organization-public relationship (POPR) that voters perceived with their own political party and their opposing political party, as well as voters’ assessment of the credibility of candidates running for president during the primary season of the 2016 election. Results indicated that although credibility assessment of one’s own party’s candidate was much as expected, POPR with the Democratic Party was generally stronger than that with the Republican Party. Data showed no evidence that a poor POPR with one’s own party would drive voters to support interloper candidates. We conclude by reflecting on the importance of POPR with the opposing party and what weak relationships may mean for parties in the long term.     

The Perceptive Proletarian: Subjective Social Class Predicts Interpersonal Accuracy

Interpersonal accuracy correlates modestly across different domains. Although some research has explored factors that predict accuracy within specific domains of interpersonal judgment (e.g., social attributes), whether any variables might predict interpersonal accuracy generally across different domains remains in question. Subjective socioeconomic status (SES) has recently emerged as an important moderator of various social cognitions, such as contextual focus and empathic accuracy. Moreover, people lower in SES tend to show greater interpersonal engagement and attention; thus, we wondered whether individuals with lower subjective SES might exhibit superior interpersonal accuracy in multiple domains. Indeed, across four studies, we found that subjective SES inversely correlated with accuracy in three different domains of interpersonal accuracy: social attributes, situational affect, and emotion. These findings therefore demonstrate that subjective SES may predict broad interpersonal accuracy abilities and suggest that, despite modest relationships between different types of first impression accuracy, the correlates of such accuracy can still operate across domains.     

A Place for Sexual Dysfunctions in an Empirical Taxonomy of Psychopathology

Sexual dysfunctions commonly co-occur with various depressive and anxiety disorders. An emerging framework for understanding the classification of mental disorders suggests that such comorbidity is a manifestation of underlying dimensions of psychopathology (or “spectra”). In this review, we synthesize the evidence that sexual dysfunctions should be included in the empirical taxonomy of psychopathology as part of the internalizing spectrum, which accounts for comorbidity among the depressive and anxiety disorders. The review has four parts. Part 1 summarizes the empirical basis and utility of the empirical taxonomy of psychopathology. Part 2 reviews the prima facie evidence for the hypothesis that sexual dysfunctions are part of the internalizing spectrum (i.e., high rates of comorbidity; shared cognitive, affective, and temperament characteristics; common neural substrates and biomarkers; shared course and treatment response; and the lack of causal relationships between them). Part 3 critically analyzes and integrates the results of the eight studies that have addressed this hypothesis. Finally, Part 4 examines the implications of reconceptualizing sexual dysfunctions as part of the internalizing spectrum, and explores avenues for future research.     

Sexual Quality of Life and Aging: A Prospective Study of a Nationally Representative Sample

Unlike other life domains, sexual quality of life (SQoL) has a negative relationship with age. This study disentangled the effect of age in this relationship from confounding sociocultural influences (e.g., the period of time in which data were collected, and cohort differences) and aimed to understand the roles of other sexual domains (i.e., frequency, perceived control, thought and effort invested in sex, and number of sexual partners). We analyzed data from the longitudinal Midlife in the United States study (n = 6,278; age range 20–93), which were collected between 1995 and 2013. Repeated measures linear mixed-effects models showed that age was the most robust time-related predictor of declining SQoL. However, after the sexual domains were included in the model, age had a positive relationship with SQoL and older adults’ SQoL was differentially influenced by the quality—not quantity—of sex. When partnership characteristics were included in the model, age was no longer related to SQoL. These findings suggest that aging may be associated with the acquisition of skills and strategies that can buffer age-related declines in SQoL, particularly in the context of a positive relationship. We summarize these findings as sexual wisdom.     

Analysis of a marker for cancer of the thyroid with a limit of detection

Limit of detection (LoD) is a common problem in the analysis of data generated by instruments that cannot detect very small concentrations or other quantities, resulting in left-censored measurements. Methods intended for data that are not subject to this problem are often difficult to modify for censoring. We adapt the simulation-extrapolation method, devised originally for fitting models with measurement error, to dealing with LoD in conjunction with a mixture analysis. The application relates the levels of thyroglobulin in individuals with cancer of the thyroid before and after treatment with radioactive iodine I–131. We conclude that the fitted mixture components correspond to levels of effectiveness of the treatment.     

Correlated defaults,temporal correlation,expert information and predictability of default rates

ABSTRACT

Dependence among defaults both across assets and over time is an important characteristic of financial risk. A Bayesian approach to default rate estimation is proposed and illustrated using prior distributions assessed from an experienced industry expert. Two extensions of the binomial model are proposed. The first allows correlated defaults yet remains consistent with Basel II’s asymptotic single-factor model. The second adds temporal correlation in default rates through autocorrelation in the systemic factor. Implications for the predictability of default rates are considered. The single-factor model generates more forecast uncertainty than does the parameter uncertainty. A robustness exercise illustrates that the correlation indicated by the data is much smaller than that specified in the Basel II regulations.     

“Jesus Would Turn the Tables Over”: Five Dimensions of Authenticity Applied to Countercultural Christianity

This paper draws on extant literature to identify five dimensions that are deployed by a wide range of social groups to claim and achieve authenticity in variety of social settings: being honest or real, forgoing external rewards or compensation, coming from or living in the right place or time, embodying or participating in something, and consuming correctly. We then demonstrate the utility of these five dimensions of authenticity in action by applying them to two different qualitative studies of countercultural Christians. Our analysis of these data shows that different communities have different understandings of what makes one authentic, but the five dimensions that we outline in this article make comparisons across different groups possible.