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181.
ABSTRACTThis national online survey (N = 493) examined the political organization-public relationship (POPR) that voters perceived with their own political party and their opposing political party, as well as voters’ assessment of the credibility of candidates running for president during the primary season of the 2016 election. Results indicated that although credibility assessment of one’s own party’s candidate was much as expected, POPR with the Democratic Party was generally stronger than that with the Republican Party. Data showed no evidence that a poor POPR with one’s own party would drive voters to support interloper candidates. We conclude by reflecting on the importance of POPR with the opposing party and what weak relationships may mean for parties in the long term. 相似文献
182.
Nicholas T. Longford José Rafael Tovar Cuevas Carlos Alvear 《Journal of applied statistics》2017,44(12):2190-2203
Limit of detection (LoD) is a common problem in the analysis of data generated by instruments that cannot detect very small concentrations or other quantities, resulting in left-censored measurements. Methods intended for data that are not subject to this problem are often difficult to modify for censoring. We adapt the simulation-extrapolation method, devised originally for fitting models with measurement error, to dealing with LoD in conjunction with a mixture analysis. The application relates the levels of thyroglobulin in individuals with cancer of the thyroid before and after treatment with radioactive iodine I–131. We conclude that the fitted mixture components correspond to levels of effectiveness of the treatment. 相似文献
183.
Nicholas M. Kiefer 《Econometric Reviews》2017,36(6-9):699-712
ABSTRACTDependence among defaults both across assets and over time is an important characteristic of financial risk. A Bayesian approach to default rate estimation is proposed and illustrated using prior distributions assessed from an experienced industry expert. Two extensions of the binomial model are proposed. The first allows correlated defaults yet remains consistent with Basel II’s asymptotic single-factor model. The second adds temporal correlation in default rates through autocorrelation in the systemic factor. Implications for the predictability of default rates are considered. The single-factor model generates more forecast uncertainty than does the parameter uncertainty. A robustness exercise illustrates that the correlation indicated by the data is much smaller than that specified in the Basel II regulations. 相似文献
184.
The equipment failure distributions commonly identified in practice pose great difficulties in the establishment of sound maintenance total float policy. Some of the existing analytical constructs utilize the reliability ratio of the equipment in operations in order to bypass the obstacles and arrive at applicable solutions. In this paper we give a summary of these theoretical models. In addition, we provide insight by testing the significance of factors utilized in maintenance total float determination. The paper examines the effect of the assumption made by the analytical model of no waiting time for repair. Our test showed that there is no statistically significant difference between the analytical model and simulation when waiting is allowed for the normal and uniform distributions. The analytical model thus offers some advantage in its use to estimate maintenance float due to its simplicity. When failure distribution is an exponential, Erlang-2 or lognormal, the assumption of no waiting time for repair must be kept in order to use the analytical model. 相似文献
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Singly and Doubly Censored Current Status Data: Estimation, Asymptotics and Regression 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Mark J. van der Laan Peter J. Bickel & Nicholas P. Jewell 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》1997,24(3):289-307
In biostatistical applications interest often focuses on the estimation of the distribution of time between two consecutive events. If the initial event time is observed and the subsequent event time is only known to be larger or smaller than an observed point in time, then the data is described by the well-understood singly censored current status model, also known as interval censored data, case I. Jewell et al. (1994) extended this current status model by allowing the initial time to be unobserved, with its distribution over an observed interval [A, B] known; the data is referred to as doubly censored current status data. This model has applications in AIDS partner studies. If the initial time is known to be uniformly distribute d, the model reduces to a submodel of the current status model with the same asymptotic information bounds as in the current status model, but the distribution of interest is essentially the derivative of the distribution of interest in the current status model. As a consequence the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator is inconsistent. Moreover, this submodel contains only smooth heavy tailed distributions for which no moments exist. In this paper, we discuss the connection between the singly censored current status model and the doubly censored current status model (for the uniform initial time) in detail and explain the difficulties in estimation which arise in the doubly censored case. We propose a regularized MLE corresponding with the current status model. We prove rate results, efficiency of smooth functionals of the regularized MLE, and present a generally applicable efficient method for estimation of regression parameters, which does not rely on the existence of moments. We also discuss extending these ideas to a non-uniform distribution for the initial time. 相似文献
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针对西方毛泽东研究领域比较盛行的那种认为毛泽东是农民革命家,而不是正统的马克思主义者,毛泽东对农民的重视决定了他是马克思主义的一个异端的观点,以成熟的方法论准备和扎实的文献学为基础,对这种观点进行了有理有据的反驳。毛泽东对农民的重视主要是一种战略和策略的需要,毛泽东从未否认工人阶级在革命中的领导地位,毛泽东是真正的马克思主义者。 相似文献
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