Particle Learning for Fat-Tailed Distributions

It is well known that parameter estimates and forecasts are sensitive to assumptions about the tail behavior of the error distribution. In this article, we develop an approach to sequential inference that also simultaneously estimates the tail of the accompanying error distribution. Our simulation-based approach models errors with a t_ν-distribution and, as new data arrives, we sequentially compute the marginal posterior distribution of the tail thickness. Our method naturally incorporates fat-tailed error distributions and can be extended to other data features such as stochastic volatility. We show that the sequential Bayes factor provides an optimal test of fat-tails versus normality. We provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of the rate of learning of tail thickness under a default Jeffreys prior. We illustrate our sequential methodology on the British pound/U.S. dollar daily exchange rate data and on data from the 2008–2009 credit crisis using daily S&P500 returns. Our method naturally extends to multivariate and dynamic panel data.     

Kindness in Australia: an empirical critique of moral decline sociology

A new sociological agenda is emerging that interrogates how morality can be established in the absence of the moral certainties of the past but there is a shortage of empirical work on this topic. This article establishes a theoretical framework for the empirical analysis of everyday morality drawing on the work of theorists including Ahmed, Bauman and Taylor. It uses the Australian Survey of Social Attitudes to assess the state and shape of contemporary moralities by asking how kind are Australians, how is its expression socially distributed, and what are the motivations for kindness. The findings demonstrate that Australians exhibit a strong attachment and commitment to kindness as a moral value that is primarily motivated by interiorized sources of moral authority. We argue these findings support the work of theorists such as Ahmed and Taylor who argue authenticity and embodied emotion are legitimate sources of morality in today's secular societies. The research also provides new evidence that generational changes are shaping understandings and practices of kindness in unexpected ways.     

Why privacy keeps dying: the trouble with talk about the end of privacy

It is a curious fact how much talk about privacy is about the end of privacy. We term this ‘privacy endism,’ locating the phenomenon within a broader category of endist thought. We then analyze 101 newspaper articles between 1990 and 2012 that declare the end of privacy. Three findings follow. First, claims about the end of privacy point to an unusually broad range of technological and institutional causes. Privacy has been pronounced defunct for decades, but there has never been a near consensus about its causes. Second, unlike other endist talk (the end of art or history, etc.), privacy endism appears ongoing and not period specific. Finally, our explanation of the persistence and idiosyncrasy of claims to the end of privacy focuses on Warren and Brandeis’s 1890 negative conception of privacy as ‘the right to be let alone’: namely, modern privacy talk has always been endist because the right to privacy was born out of the conditions for its violation, not its realization. The conclusion comments on implications of that basic proposition.     

Validity judgments of rumors heard multiple times: the shape of the truth effect

Research on the illusory truth effect has found that repeated presentation of uncertain statements increases validity judgments of those statements. Three experiments explored the shape of the repetition–validity–judgment relationship over multiple repetitions, the mediating role of processing fluency, and the moderating role of dispositional skepticism. Participants read narratives in which different rumors were repeated 0–6 or 0–9 times; validity estimates, processing fluency, and dispositional skepticism were also measured. Validity judgments were logarithmically related to repetitions; this effect was mediated by processing fluency, and moderated slightly by skepticism. Results explore the boundaries of the processing fluency contrast account of the illusory truth effect, suggest a minor role for skepticism, and inform research on belief in rumor (uncertain statements in circulation).     

COMPETITIVE BALANCE MEASURES IN SPORTS LEAGUES: THE EFFECTS OF VARIATION IN SEASON LENGTH

Appropriate measurement of competitive balance is central to the economic analysis of professional sports leagues. We examine the distributional properties of the ratio of standard deviations (RSD) of points percentages, the most widely used measure of competitive balance in the sports economics literature, in comparison with other standard‐deviation‐based measures. Simulation methods are used to evaluate the effects of changes in season length on the distributions of competitive balance measures for different distributions of the strengths of teams in a league. The popular RSD measure performs as expected only in cases of perfect balance; if there is imbalance in team strengths, its distribution is sensitive to changes in season length. It is therefore not recommended for comparisons of competitive balance for different sports leagues with different numbers of teams and/or games played. (JEL L83, D63, C63)     

Age estimation from the number of teeth erupted in young children: An aid to demographic surveys

The reporting of children's ages by parents is surprisingly inaccurate in many innumerate societies, but accurate knowledge of age is important for estimating recent changes in demographic rates. The timing of the eruption of children's teeth is largely independent of environmental influences and can provide a relatively accurate and unbiased estimate of a child's age. We have collected published data from 42 studies of children's dentition and have transformed them into estimates of age for children with particular numbers of teeth. We present estimates for different populations, but the lack of significant differences between these estimates justifies the use of a standard set.