What is the Influence of News Media on People’s Perception of Corruption? Parametric and Non-Parametric Approaches

Does the source of one’s news media have a systematic effect on one’s perception of political corruption? While numerous studies have investigated the extent to which media affects trust in institutions, or the polarization of political values, this study shifts the focus on to how one’s media source conceived here as social media versus traditional media affects the perception of corruption in 2 ways. First, we hypothesize that citizens who consume their news predominately from social media will have higher perceptions of political corruption than consumers of more traditional media sources. Second, we hypothesize that perceptions among social media consumers will be more polarized. Specifically, we argue that the gap in corruption perception between supporters of government and opposition political parties will be larger among social media consumers compared to traditional news consumers. We test our hypotheses using newly collected survey data from the European Quality of Government Index survey from 2017, which contains nearly 78,000 respondents in 21 countries in the European Union. Estimating our model with both parametric and non-parametric approaches, we find robust empirical support for two of our 3 hypotheses.

     

An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 2—Hazard Modeling

Hurricane track and intensity can change rapidly in unexpected ways, thus making predictions of hurricanes and related hazards uncertain. This inherent uncertainty often translates into suboptimal decision-making outcomes, such as unnecessary evacuation. Representing this uncertainty is thus critical in evacuation planning and related activities. We describe a physics-based hazard modeling approach that (1) dynamically accounts for the physical interactions among hazard components and (2) captures hurricane evolution uncertainty using an ensemble method. This loosely coupled model system provides a framework for probabilistic water inundation and wind speed levels for a new, risk-based approach to evacuation modeling, described in a companion article in this issue. It combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) hydrologic model, and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) storm surge, tide, and wind-wave model to compute inundation levels and wind speeds for an ensemble of hurricane predictions. Perturbations to WRF's initial and boundary conditions and different model physics/parameterizations generate an ensemble of storm solutions, which are then used to drive the coupled hydrologic + hydrodynamic models. Hurricane Isabel (2003) is used as a case study to illustrate the ensemble-based approach. The inundation, river runoff, and wind hazard results are strongly dependent on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulations, which improves with decreasing lead time to hurricane landfall. The ensemble envelope brackets the observed behavior while providing “best-case” and “worst-case” scenarios for the subsequent risk-based evacuation model.     

Petroleum and Hazardous Material Releases from Industrial Facilities Associated with Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Katrina struck an area dense with industry, causing numerous releases of petroleum and hazardous materials. This study integrates information from a number of sources to describe the frequency, causes, and effects of these releases in order to inform analysis of risk from future hurricanes. Over 200 onshore releases of hazardous chemicals, petroleum, or natural gas were reported. Storm surge was responsible for the majority of petroleum releases and failure of storage tanks was the most common mechanism of release. Of the smaller number of hazardous chemical releases reported, many were associated with flaring from plant startup, shutdown, or process upset. In areas impacted by storm surge, 10% of the facilities within the Risk Management Plan (RMP) and Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) databases and 28% of SIC 1311 facilities experienced accidental releases. In areas subject only to hurricane strength winds, a lower fraction (1% of RMP and TRI and 10% of SIC 1311 facilities) experienced a release while 1% of all facility types reported a release in areas that experienced tropical storm strength winds. Of industrial facilities surveyed, more experienced indirect disruptions such as displacement of workers, loss of electricity and communication systems, and difficulty acquiring supplies and contractors for operations or reconstruction (55%), than experienced releases. To reduce the risk of hazardous material releases and speed the return to normal operations under these difficult conditions, greater attention should be devoted to risk‐based facility design and improved prevention and response planning.     

发展战略问题

营造一种有利于投资和生产率增长的气候和赋予贫困人口以能力是发展中国家制定合理的发展战略的两个重要支柱 ,对发展中国家减少贫困 ,促进经济增长具有重要的作用。国际金融机构应与各国之间建立起真正的伙伴关系 ,推动这两个支柱战略的实现。     

Stimulated Recall Interviews in Ethnography

This article describes the use of stimulated recall interviews as a technique for investigating how people approach interactions in a number of different situations. In general, the technique I describe involves interviewing individuals by playing them audio or audiovisual recordings of their own behavior in social situations and discussing different aspects of those recorded interactions. Doing so can help us to understand what signals interactants understand as important, what signals they try to convey to others, and how they choose from various options to act upon the information they receive in interactions. Using the example of jazz jam sessions, I ask why it is that interactions can sometimes go smoothly and uneventfully, or sometimes break down completely. The stimulated recall interviews provide a valuable tool in helping the ethnographer to answer these kinds of questions.     

Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Evidence on Brain Drain Grounding the Review of Albania’s and Bulgaria’s Experience1

The objectives of this paper are: first, to briefly review the different theoretical aspects of brain drain and its potential positive or negative, direct or indirect effects on the economy of the home country; second, to highlight the limited empirical research on some of these issues; and third, to discuss on this grounding the empirical evidence on the nature and size of brain drain, as well as its impact on the economies of Albania and Bulgaria. As it appears, the evidence for these two countries and its evaluation as to whether brain drain has been or can be a threat to their development is contradictory and confusing, as it comes out from different casual observations without a convincing analysis. The relevant discussion has not escaped the stereotype way of thinking that the economy and society of these two countries would have been better had emigration of educated persons not taken place, or had those who migrated just returned. The conclusion on policy for brain drain and brain return is that merely hindering the emigration of educated people or trying to motivate their return cannot by itself elevate education and research to higher quality levels and promote development and growth. Without simultaneously developing a friendly and comprehensive institutional and pragmatic framework, such measures are often ineffective or even counterproductive.     

Book reviews

In case-control studies it is important that controls selected are representative of the population from which the cases came, to give an unbiased estimate of population exposure. This is difficult to achieve, but one method to select controls has been to use the patient lists of the general practitioners with whom the cases are registered. Using data from a case-control study of heart attacks in young women; this article explores whether this method of selecting controls resulted in an unrepresentative distribution of deprivation levels in controls. The controls did not reflect the high levels of deprivation seen in the cases, although they came from the same neighbourhoods (general practice catchment areas). Such controls are often referred to as neighbourhood controls, but this is misleading. General practice controls are more likely to represent the general distribution of the population than the relative affluence or otherwise of the cases.