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The rjmcmc package for R implements the post‐processing reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Barker & Link. MCMC output from each of the models is used to estimate posterior model probabilities and Bayes factors. Automatic differentiation is used to simplify implementation. The package is demonstrated on two examples.  相似文献   
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Sir Francis Galton, scientist, African Explorer and statistician, was a key figure in statistical history. He was the man who devised the statistical concepts of regression and correlation. He was also Charles Darwin's cousin. And, inspired by his reading of Darwin, he was the founder of eugenics: the science of improving the human race through selective breeding. Nicholas Gillham tells of a darker side to statistics and heredity.  相似文献   
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Policies and programs designed to serve children and families are sometimes misaligned with developmental science research. Broad child neglect reporting laws, first adopted by the United States in 1974, have led to families being prosecuted by child protection authorities for allowing children to participate in everyday age-appropriate activities unsupervised. In this report we describe the challenges of defining child neglect and outline the current landscape of neglect laws in the United States. We then provide a broad overview of some of the developmental milestones children need to reach to participate in unsupervised activities and the benefits of independent activities on child development. Children can often accomplish tasks at a much younger age than law, parents, and caregivers in the U.S. believe. We then turn to the literature from across the world and argue that culture, not innate ability, drives much of the variation in the age at which children can do things on their own. Finally, we make recommendations to parents, caregivers, legislators, advocates, and developmental scientists to better align practice with research. This is a social justice issue that should resonate across party, racial, and class lines. Developmental scientists are needed as advocates and advisors on policies impacting children and families, especially child neglect laws.  相似文献   
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We are trapped in two divergent worlds when it comes to global views on homosexuality. There is the liberal world epitomized by Spain and other nations, where homosexuality is increasingly accepted; gays and lesbians are claiming their human rights; and laws are changing to codify that transformation. The second is the extremely anti-gay world symbolized by Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia, where attitudes are favorable to criminalization. This research explains the “African Gap” in attitudes toward homosexuality in a comparative analysis of six African nations and Argentina and Canada, South and North America's most liberal nations on gay rights. Using Pew's 2015 Spring Global Attitudes Survey data, we find that the major variables have essentially similar effects on opinion in any context. Africa's distinction is explained by its comparatively higher levels of factors such as religion, morality dogma, and low socioeconomic status that generally retard support for homosexuality, at the same time of lower levels of factors such as education, urbanization, and personal liberty that increase gay support. Africa's extreme anti-gay outlook is mutable. Two social forces will facilitate this softening: expansion of liberalizing agents such as education and urbanization, and repositioning away from “traditionalism” toward modernism emphasizing individualism, civil rights, and personal liberties.  相似文献   
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This paper examines the effects of regime type, government ideology and economic globalization on poverty in low- and middle-income countries around the world. We use panel regression to estimate the effect of these explanatory variables on two different response variables: national poverty gap (104 countries from 1981 to 2005) and child mortality rate (132 countries from 1976 to 2005). We find consistent and significant results for the interactive effect of democracy and government ideology: strong leftist power under a democratic regime is associated with a reduction in both the poverty gap and the child mortality rate. Democracy, on its own, is associated with a lower child mortality rate, but has no effect on the poverty gap. Leftist power under a non-democratic regime is associated with an increase in both poverty measures. Trade reduces both measures of poverty. Foreign direct investment has a weak and positive effect on the poverty gap. From examining factors that influence the welfare of poor people in less developed countries, we conclude that who governs is as important as how they govern.  相似文献   
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Whilst business travel is deemed important for organisational success and economic outcomes, little is known about the actual process of business travelling from the perspective of individuals who undertake such travel on a regular basis. Thus the current qualitative study examined how business travellers (three women and eight men) attempt to find a balance between work and family, by focusing on how time together and time apart are experienced. The results can be interpreted and framed within work/family border theory in that business travellers' borders are less defined and less permeable, thus requiring them to border-cross more frequently. This necessitates a process of negotiation with key border-keepers (their spouse/partner). Business travellers also undertake compensatory behaviours to make up their time away from family. In order to find a work/family balance, they go through a process of adapting, negotiating and tailoring their lives around their work commitments to alleviate work–life conflict.  相似文献   
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